focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Wouldn't it be great if AVCT caught these shorters out and paid this next Heights conversion in cash? Unlikely I know but would do sentiment and the SP the world of good and only eat up a fraction of the cash on hand.
When you look at Pacbio's balance sheet you start to realise what a rare position Novacyt is in in have such a strong net cash position and no debt. For example Pacbio was valued at $3b as recently as mid 2023 with net debt of $700m and significantly loss making, even at the ebitda level.
All it will take is very modest profitability whilst remaining debt free for Novacyt to be valued many, many times what it is now.
Financial quarterly results come a month after the less detailed operational updates. Standard practice at THX.
A few of us were saying this Wilson around the time of the YG acquisition as Pacbio had qualified LightBench however it just seemed unlikely that such a giant would getting into a bidding war with little Novacyt - after all Pacbio was valued at $3B at the time.
Funnily enough they themselves have seen their value crash nearly 90% since the start of 2024.
Would be an issue if THX was trading at all time highs given the gold environment but they’re trading 30% down year on year!
I think we'll see confirmation of being net cash positive in the Q2 results, especially as cash generation in q2 will likely dwarf that of Q1.
Of course it's real, they've been receiving it each year since producing with $1.35m received previously.
'Imminent' to me always meant that that was what was coming next, i.e funding coming from this rebate rather than a placing, so far so good on that front although the longer it takes I suspect the slower any on the ground progress is made.
If the next update shows they are still only at ~1000tpm/12000tpa they should probably stop putting out the nonsense spiel of targeting 400000tpa by the end of this decade.
'ARB missed its only chance of a lifeline when it failed to do a placing when the sp surged above 30p'
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Ahem, I think you'll find that the sp 'surged above 30p' and peaked at 35p on the 2nd of Jan and by the 8th of Jan they had got a placing away at 20.5p - problem was they only managed to £7.8m which wasn't enough but is understandable given their outlook.
Over 18 months they have sold Helios for £54m, £11m worth of brand new Bitmain S19j Pro's, £13.5m combined from two placings and £4.9m for Quebec data centre and still they find themselves entering the halving with considerable net debt and minimal cash reserves.
The Shanta acquirers were very clever to get the ball rolling through 2023 and pouncing in December before the really big moves in gold were seen and looking back you can start to see that Eric took his foot off the gas from about the summer onwards, presumedly because he was incentivised to keep attention off Shanta.
If the same had been attempted at Serabi then i'm sure they'd have got a sale away at around 60p but now the gold bull run is well and truly happening by the time something similar is worked the Serabi share price will probably already be close to a pound and a premium on that would be needed - whatever happens SHs will gain by holding at these levels.
With enough time having passed since the placing rns, with news from the drilling campaign on the horizon and with the long term copper forecasts starting to show signs of playing out as copper trades around 104w highs I think this is as good a time as any to top up.
He can't really go into the details, didn't you hear? My guess is his highly sophisticated AI creation automatically gains access to company software and feeds back key information from executive level meetings - it's called AInsider
How do I sign up?
That's a lot of buys, must be a big seller exiting to keep the share price flat like this.
I think SRB is getting closer to 'fair value' now but fact remains at such a gold price they're going to be producing ebitda not too far off the current mcap with those funds being put straight to use towards the next production level of 60k ounces.
Still room for 100% upside from 60p in 2024.
60% of the cash has been spent but a third of that was on YG to start with. You then have considerable costs associated with the dispute, you have 'rightsizing' post covid with significant covid stock write-offs and then there's all the R&D in which there's always a lag to see results + the costs associated with integrating YG into the wider group.
Looking at it from a more positive angle ncyt STILL have £44m after all of the above + £8m vat reclaim if dispute is settled at nil + £70m of unused tax losses for when they reach profitable i.e no tax to pay for the foreseeable.