Member Info for HarChris

Don't forget Andrada have already given up up to 49% of the Brandberg West asset, it's unlikely this new investor for example is here purely for the 51% of BW.

I'm certainly starting to feel the same way but a TO at the sort of 10p level isn't pie in the sky, it's the sort of price ($400m?) that would be a drop in the ocean for the likes of SQM if they fancied building a mulitbillion dollar multiasset business out of Namibia. If the assets are proven up enough then maybe it'll end up being the best way to crystallise some profit.

Yes. Most likely. The question is at what valuation can they command that investment if they have proven up in situ assets of $5B+ ? Hopefully much higher than current sub £4m mcap.

Also possible left field funding options of JV partnership or even a sale of the Rukwa coal assets.

It wouldn’t surprise me if all these IIs are after a clean exit via TO in say the next twelve months. The moves recently have derisked against the downside and with progress on all fronts could certainly see the IIs settle for something in the 7p-10p range and be done with it.

As long as the share price is higher they’ll convert at 5p next year, hence only needing to find the cash for the second lot of CLNs (of if share price is much higher converting at 9.45p).

The debt risk has been hugely reduced albeit the total share count is rising in line.

The convertibles needed to be renegotiated... the CLN holders held the power there and following the downgrade in options price likely wouldn't budge on 5p being what needed to be offered.

It irritates me more that the options were downgraded for no reason, they didn't need to be besides greed. The CLN did need to be unfortunately (due to lack of recent operational delivery) but again likely the greedy options downgrade then led to this 5p being the new cln strike price.

Brilliant assets, disappointing management.

It seems like the majority of holders here are viewing things sensibly now, acknowledging the positives as well as highlighting the negatives too. This bb is excellent for its general balance.

One thing we can say for sure the poster V1per who comes on here often to tell us AV is just another Fortune Mojapelo and that ATM will go the same way as BMN is proving to be wrong in as much as BMN went under, swallowed by $120m debt, AV is actually being cautious and derisking considerably via the equity route...

Has someone hacked LDA? It's 'only' been four weeks he says? I thought he'd be demanding answers from CC by now!

An £8.1m raise plus nine eight months of sky high tin prices SHOULD have been enough to meet this debt maturity and be done with it - instead they tack on another 12% and kick it down the road with a 5p conversion next year.

Not a disaster but another example of the cost of failing to deliver the tin scale as targeted.

It's kinda grating that we started with production being 'summer' as in 2025 and we're now five weeks away from summer 2026.

Stunning assay results from Lithium Ridge that all but confirm an inevitable buyout at some point and/or third party ore supply agreement going in Andrada’s favour.

Yeah that's right, £10.3m in WSHP stock minus £8m needed to cover bond and you're left with a value of £2.3m. Divide that by the total number of shares in issue and you come out at about 0.5p a share, exactly where the share price is now.

Really this is as close to a binary bet as it gets - to 'win' from here WSHP needs to be performing well enough with enough liquidity for WCAP to be able to sell enough of its WSHP holding (£8m worth) between November 2026 and May 2027 to cover its debt repayment whilst still holding on to a meaningful amount of WSHP shares.

They need to be able to slowly sell down shares at $20+ over a six month period for a positive return here from 0.5p

Exactly, this is what AV has hidden behind on numerous occasions and don't be surprised to see him do it again, wheedling out of these Uis questions by saying we ARE seeing year on year scale increases. The first low years of production don't count for comparison (imagine they produced 10t first year, would we say they've increased 100 fold?) but useful numbers are a near doubling between FY 2023 and FY 2026.

Now ask what a doubling of output has done for the ( AISC) all in sustaining costs per tonne, one would assume lowered them with scale? No increased ~30%. How about the debt? Increased 4 times over said period.

The tin price HAS bailed Andrada out over the past six to nine months, it's time to hear AV own up to that and tell us why this is going to change.

A bit of light humour.

If Avacta ends up being bought out for £10 a share Wyn would have called it and we’d all have fluked it.

Sure there are challenges ahead but my word is it crazy that my buy limit has just gone through at 0.9p with how much is going on here - HUD are positioning themselves to take advantage of absolutely ginormous markets and with a CEO working flat out day and night to make it happen. The strategic moves over the past 12 months create the possibility of becoming a major player in this space and yet the share price is now sub £4m and sinking (albeit on tiny volumes).

We’re now talking multibagging from only ever so modest delivery going forward.

''Over the years, where have I been incorrect?''

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You ask, someone points out a really obvious one and now this bb will be treated to thousands of lines of explanation.

That would be a good addition. You should also be able to remove the message telling you that filtered messages were posted, that still worsens the bb experience just having a page of green boxes. Perhaps a filter button and a block button with deeper coverage.

And I have always said, especially so last year when the share price fell to lows and many of us were doubling and trebling down, that ultimately you Wyn will make a few quid here or there whilst the committed holders who are actually taking positions will either make life changing returns or (to varying degrees) life changing losses. And we will find out which of these is it is in the next six to eighteen months.

It's not misleading. If a deal is being worked now and is struck mid year they'll receive the upfront cash element well before the end of 2026 and hence will have extended the cash runway easily in time.

As it happens though i suspect a deal would lead to a sharp sharp price response and hopefully a modest raise via subscription off the back of that to transform the balance sheet.