Member Info for HarChris

Good to see an RNS Reach like this, hopefully grasping the need to get this story out there more clearly - all set up for a much improved 2026.

Andrada announced the partnership with SQM on the 9th September 2024. On that day the spodumene price was $750/t.

Today it's $2350. That is more than a trebling and will vastly increase the sell price if SQM decide to move early to secure 100% of the asset.

Nd / Pr prices rising in the run up to the MKAR nasdaq listing later this quarter would do sentiment here the world of good.

I’m not usually an online bargain hunter but I made an order with Peeki and it was smooth and all came as expected next day. Also impressed with the email marketing.

'Zero cardiotoxicity' is what Christina stated in this interview for ava6000, that's after an entire year of phase 1b across three indications...

Between now and the readout in late q4*

Or at least perhaps via a 6103 update after a couple of months? We’ll surely get some progress info between now the resourcing late q4.

And the tin price has just hit $50k as we speak.

I do think when you break it all down the risk/reward here is becoming ever more favourable. The best case upside is enormous if all came together (lithium ridge sale to SQM, Brandberg West developed into a major tungsten-tin mine, lithium integrated into Uis to make it an industry low cost major polymetallic lithium-tin-tantalum mine) - that top-end blue sky upside has almost no ceiling, especially if this is merely the start of a multiyear bull market in copper/tungsten/tin/lithium.

As for the worst case downside it would take a real major f up & some bad luck with commodity prices turning sharply to fail as an investment from here. It would certainly require SQM walking away from Lithium Ridge, it would require a failure to work up and finance the BW mine to production and would require some sort of combo of the tin price crashing or tin price retracing significantly before Uis has managed to scale/reduce its AISC + failure to access the third party ore.

More than likely we'll end up somewhere in between.

Completely agree. Whilst it's transformative to go from heavily cash burning to modestly cash flow positive it's also highly frustrating that Andrada aren't swimming in cash right now, although it will make a meaningful difference to profit if the jig plant sees even a small move from 275t per quarter to say 315t.

The big attraction here right now is the sheer number of moving parts, each of which can be company making. We're talking more news from Brandberg West, from Lithium Ridge. We are surely going to hear something soon regarding the third party ore, more on the ore sorter initiative at Uis as well as developments on the lithium front since the partnership with the EIB and the grant was announced.

It's unusual for a small cap on AIM to offer up so many potential avenues and near term catalysts all set against a commodity backdrop we could only dream of.

$49k tin, $2295/t spod.

For reference I went and checked the price this time last year for Andrada's metal interests:

Tin $31k - now $49k

Lithium spodumene $809 - now $2295

Tungsten $920 /MTU - now $3000

Copper $4.6/lb - now $6/lb

It's kinda insane. That's tin 60% up, an almost trebling for spodumene, more than a trebling for tungsten and a 30% rise in the copper price.

It's much more likely that the reason there's no MSM attention for 6000 is because the efficacy improvements being seen aren't 'sexy'. They are usually after attention-grabbing headlines like 'wonderdrug eliminates all traces of cancer' but we're just not going to get that with Fap-Dox with SGC - the disease is chemo refractory and incredibly hard to treat so if AVA6000 is able to control the disease in almost all (90%) seriously ill late-stage metastatic patients and is able to extend the life of the average patient from 4 months to a couple of years for example that is a 'miracle' for all intents and purposes and will lead to approval (which is a huge deal for a company of Avacta's valuation) but perhaps not all that interesting to the average daily mail reader that hasn't even heard of Salivary Gland Cancer.

Hence no reason to read into 'lack of efficacy' from'lack of shouting from the rooftops', it's just a different bar to what we will see for 6103 if the high percentage of CRs from preclinical translate to these human trials.

An interesting tweet from a well connected guy - what would government support be for here? To massively accelerate the multiple well development at Rudyard? Or perhaps even to fast track Ingomar?

I didn't think we'd see results like this from Brandberg West just yet, really couldn't ask for more at this stage and should give confidence that the JV will proceed beyond the initial investment.

Hopefully at least push on to one month highs now.

The debt restructuring from last year keeps DKL alive but requires major revenue, ebitda and positive operational cash flow growth through this year and next. Anything less (and it really is anything) and DKL will be out of cash again and requiring at least a similar raise as we saw in June to keep the lights on.

The margin of error is so so tight that the odds surely are stacked against them.

I think Avacta raises £16m last October because CC believes the FDA will be removing the cumulative Dox dose limit imminently and that unlocks a deal within that H1 2026 cash runway.

The FDA approval gets delayed for whatever reason, CC hints at it in the December IMC where she's very downbeat but obviously, without it secured, can't witter on too much about the difference that would be seen if many of the patients were able to continue to be treated.

So it all gets pushed back a bit and so a further £10m is needed to deal from a position of strength once again and now that the runway extended so they can deal armed with months of data post limit removal... I think she expected a deal within the last cash window but events didn't play out exactly as hoped, but she's no idiot and unlikely to just mindlessly repeat the same mistakes so I trust that if she expects those key catalysts to now happen within this next cash window then it likely will. High enough chance that the risk/reward is skewed heavily in our favour imo.

I know you’re used to specialist treatment from CC LDA but this might be one where she won’t drop everything to respond to you as it’s entirely confidential information.

Phase 2 is subject to a partner being secured, whether that means out-licensing or co-developing the asset, and so we all get the news when/if it happens.

Management have hinted that this lands around the 1b data release /ASCO in late Q2. If you get any further hints privately from CC please share them here.

All anyone needs to remember here is that ECR has consistently (~ three times a year) seen everything come together to send the share price meaningfully north but in the past, as a pre-revenue business with no other funding options, management always had to take the opportunity to raise.

Now remember that ECR is not only fully cashed up but is also a producer so there’s absolutely no need for a raise the next time the share price takes off. Hence none of the same temptation for many to protect their profits and sell.

Was today the start of such a move? Who knows, but maybe.

It's public knowledge that the approvals are expected this quarter, in May / June.

Raising because you want to (fast tracking growth) vs raising because you have to (for working capital & to continue operating) is a totally different position to be in. There would not be the significant discount that we've seen here in the past.

So yeah either way what matters now is evidence that Raglan can indeed produce enough to cover all the group G&A costs.