Member Info for HarChris

It must be incredibly unlikely that 6103 is pulled / paused due to adverse effects early, free exatecan itself has made it to phase 2 trials previously.

Totally but also showed that Evolve have no doubt that ATM will remain a going concern for decades.

Holders agree with that but still a positive sign.

You may have missed this but Orion have already crystallised a huge profit on the royalty as they've sold it on to another company for $32.5m.

If you go back about a month on here you'll see this news was quite heavily discussed.

Yeah true, although tin price should be far and above the AISC still, hopefully as much as $15k/t or more even from next month onwards.

It's meaningful cash generation per quarter whilst we wait for other catalysts to land.

That's why i was saying earlier that if the jig as a pre-concentrator helps raise production even a tad per quarter, from say 275t to 300t, that would take some of the sting out of the royalty. Not good enough but something.

That's not exactly true, we have been continually told previously that Andrada can double output from the combination of jig plant and ore sorter circuit (which is due to be completed at the end of this year) although the recent wording around the use of the jig as a pre-concentrator until the supply agreement is concluded adds uncertainty to those prior claims.

It is certainly possible that a decision is close to conclusion re the supply agreement ie Goantagab ore and that would explain the lack of forward guidance but if so i'm still not quite sure why that couldn't have been more explicitly stated.

You're right though, the recent update has made it less certain that there's a path past 1600t contained tin without higher grade third party ore.

Yes.

They're here to celebrate and stick the boot in when the share price falls, that will continue until ECR takes off/comes good so here's to that happening for our investments and to be rid of the irritants!

Surely some of the funds are going straight out of the door to cover the most overdue creditors? I doubt the company needs hardly any working capital at all now, it's almost all taken care of by Daem, the bigger issue is the £4m short-term creditor liabilities.

Same here, same scaling.

Let’s also remember that even a small uplift in contained tin per quarter from the pre concentration at the second jig plant it will bring down the sliding scale royalty a fair whack, enough to be meaningful (perhaps $1k/t)

A year ago if we’d said Andrada would be generating enough positive cash flow to cover all group costs whilst lithium price has trebled at a time when SQM are deep into the exploration at Lithium Ridge we’d have jumped for joy - a reminder that the business is in good shape it’s just not as good as it could have been at this stage given the favourable commodity prices.

Without a doubt Avacta chose to raise the absolute minimum amount possible to extend runway past the initial readout of 6103 data, they clearly could have raised more both via subscription and by opening up to retail.

The rhetoric is matching their actions.

Yeah. ‘Efficacy’ is simply showing that the drug appears to be effective against said disease, it’s not expected to showcase improved efficacy vs standard of care in p1 hence not a primary endpoint.

The fact ava6000 has already shown that re PFS is why it looks so promising already.

Myles stopped tweeting for about eight days before this announcement, isn't it reasonable to assume he got wind/invited and therefore stopped with the promotion until the placing was announced? What else can he do? Tell everyone and see the share price crumble ?

Obviously large holders have an advantage when they learn of placings before others but that doesn't make them a fraud unless they specifically pump said placing which isn't the case here.

You’re always arguing with me yet we agree on a whole lot. AV has hugely underperformed on the operations side, scaling of tin production has been too slow. Elsewhere the partnerships look terrific, SQM at Lithium Ridge in particularly but also BWCAM @ BW and of course the EIB involvement now is a big deal. But in this environment and with the debt that has built up the tin operation is what investors care about most and it’s not been good enough.

Luckily there’s still plenty of time to get things right with the tin price likely staying high for suite some time. In the meantime if there’s a catalyst from LR, BW or Goan then we’re golden.

It sounds like you missed it and now are hoping it sells down to 33p rather than expecting.

Upsized raise to account for all the demand, markets looking strong today, i'm hoping like the last one it goes nowhere near the strike price and this is soon forgotten about.

Esduk, it's also worth highlighting that because the amount looking to be raised relatively to market cap is low the difference in actual shares really is quite negligible in the grand scheme of things, as long as this is the last AIM raise.

Let's say they did the raise a whole 20% higher ie 40p, for £10m we're talking 25m shares vs ~30m. It's a 5m difference ie ending up with 374m TVR vs 379m TVR.

Very good to see and we mustn't forget just how meaningful $4000/oz is to begin with. One year ago (well April 2nd) ECR was trading at exactly the same price as today and yet there was no near term path to becoming a producer and gold was at $3000/oz. Today the gold price is over 50% higher and ECR is a producer and very possibly a self-funded gold business now if Raglan performs as hopes.

The outlook really is excellent here whether or not gold settles around this level or goes much higher.

Annoyingly they got 293.33m warrants at the issue price of 0.225p

The aim on AIM is to be in for the last bucket shop placing a company needs, the point when they transition to a self funded entity or perhaps list on a far better exchange and end up valued much closer to NAV. Could this be that point here with MKA?