Member Info for HarChris

And then you go back a few month months to April of last year and we're talking a $2 to $53 rise - is this what you're wanting to bring attention to? A 26 bagger?

Or more aptly $8 in late October and offer today is $53... that's more like the sort of thing holders here are hoping for over a five to six month timeframe.

- Loading up here before this goes parabolic

- Instis clearly buying up the dip

- RNS to land any moment

-I predict FPD early March

How did i do?!

How to Make Friends and Influence People 101

'Driven by' did a lot of heavy lifting here, sure certain input costs will have seen greater than average inflation but obviously not to that degree.

Gross costs going up is normal though, that will keep happening, it's the all in costs per tonne that we need to see come down from economies of scale. And for that we need to actually see the scale.

I guess there just isn't the volume for more at the moment. They'll hoover up all that are available at spot price.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Bx1A4qxmlAQ

Punchy couple of points in this recent interview:

- 'we believe Raglan is going to cover all of the G&A that ECR requires, even with the gold price coming down a little bit like it has in the last week or so'

- Blue Mountain could be producing this year.

Restructuring funding was at 1.5p and the share count has increased by about 6 fold since suspension, that explains it.

Mcap is actually slightly higher today than before suspension.

It's disappointing and i'm resigned to seeing the share price go a bit lower than what it closed at now, due to a slight lack of credibility over these administrative delays and lack of offtake deals over the line.

Unless a deal lands with the relisting of course, that's what i hope but if not will probably take a few more shares as I do think this comes good in the coming months.

That price makes sense as most of the shares have a 1.5p conversion price.

The jump from 138m shares in issue to 762m doesn’t even account for everything as at least the 2022 legacy CLN hasn’t been converted to shares yet, possible one of the other more recent ones too.

Really looking at close to 1B shares so got to work off that for market cap, at 1.5p that’s £15m mcap.

They had no trouble raising increasing amounts last year with optimism and sentiment at lows. There has been plenty of sudden sentiment shifts in recent months where a nimble financier like Richard could certainly have tapped his contacts to get at least as much away as they did in October and increase the runway to the end of 2026 (and i'm sure much more) but they haven't. There is no argument, whatsoever, that at this stage with the FDA taking the unprecedented step to lift the Doxorubicin lifetime limit and with the increasing exposure Avacta is seeing, popping up in plenty of serious medical articles etc, the sheer confidence of Christina even putting out an RNS showing the pre|CISION benefits over ADCs that now, suddenly, they are struggling to raise cash and that's why we are where we are. That goes well below glass half empty to too low of a chance to be worth considering.

You've got to remember that Andrada took on a lot of debt to get here and this is why they were looking a bit shaky last year (falling sub 2p at one point), because it looked like we'd got to the point where Andrada needed cash for Brandberg West, needed cash for working capital at Uis and would then be struggling to meet the debt maturity as it begins this year and then each subsequent year.

The rise in tin price coming when it did got Andrada out of a hole, it prevented a lowball raise just for working capital and has also likely built a small cash pile alongside that goes towards CLN repayment in late July. The Brandberg West partnership followed by EIB suddenly lowers the enormous capex demands across the portfolio that were looking beyond Andrada's means too.

We can now look forward to major catalysts without fearing some sort of liquidity crisis or lowball placing in the interim. The share price is back to exactly where it was this time last year but the downside risk has decreased dramatically and the blue sky upside catalysts are certainly more realistic/closer than they were back then.

Also this is an excellent tweet showing exactly what some on here have been saying, that those that matter will know if 6103 is performing almost immediately after dosing, not half a year later when data is analysed: https://x.com/asininitybeyond/status/2036181820530708608?s=46

My view and a logical one is that this management team wouldn’t leave a placing to the very last minute, not when what is on the line is something Christina has worked her entire life towards.

So for me there’s no argument to be had that plan numero uno is a placing , completed once the key catalyst of 6103 FPD has occurred . That’s unnecessarily risky and the likes of Hughes have been in this game long enough to know how the market reacts to heavily signposted news, limply.

And the cash needed to progress all these indications is simply too much to absorb at this market cap… so it’s reasonable alongside Christina’s commentary and the progress made to date to assume that a commercial deal is in its final stages.

Is that 100%? Obviously not but I think we really can say it’s highly likely what is going on behind the scenes. Does some sort of equity raise follow if the cash element isn’t enough by itself? Perhaps but that isn’t something for someone holding today at 65p to worry about.

Not long to find out now.

Back midway through p1a the question of whether Avacta was too early or not to land deals and major partnerships had mixed answers, with about as many thinking they could as thought it was indeed too early.

No holders now think it’s too early seven cohorts through p1a, p1b close to completion and with a second highly promising drug in clinic.

The only unknown is whether management accept a deal in the coming months or place a few shares to allow even more time for the data to mature - most of us are sat here hoping for the former.

Today tin price is $44k/t, lithium spodumene $2050/t. Last summer these prices were more like $33k/t & $750/t.

Now 6.5 months through a major 14000m diamond drilling campaign at Lithium Ridge, likely completed in coming months and assay results to keep coming from now to end of year. $11m received from BWACAM so exploration progress full steam ahead at Brandberg West. Will get news out of the blue in the coming months re decision around Goantagab mining licence plus further news to come from the new partnership with the European Investment Bank to develop the lithium at Uis.

First the operational update over the next 5 business days showing a major step change in operational margins as ATM continues to generate positive cash flow.

This is a major mining business being built here.

Good to see, hope they keep buying as many as possible all the way back up to where they were buying in January, 16p.

This is what Grok has to say on the matter (tested another LLM and gave almost identical answer) :

In Phase 1 oncology trials like this one (especially at specialist U.S. sites such as Virginia Cancer Specialists and NEXT Oncology), FPI (enrollment) and FPD (first dose) are almost always days apart at most. Screening is already happening; once a patient meets all criteria and is formally enrolled, dosing is scheduled for the next available slot (often the same week).

Avacta has previously talked about “dosing the first patient in Q1 2026” in older updates, but they tightened the language to “enroll before end of March” in the latest release. This does not signal any delay - it’s just the precise milestone they’re guiding now that sites are open.

My view on timing

FPD will be the same window as FPI: late March 2026 (very likely before 31 March, or at worst early April if there’s a short screening/dosing lag). Everything points to it being imminent - sites are recruiting, no delays flagged, and the program has beaten typical industry timelines so far.

Avacta management in very recent slides are targeting Q4 of this year for initial P1 data readout for 6103, would be an incredibly quick turnaround if first patient isn't dosed til May.

Save that question for end of April - it's reasonable for there to be a few months of production before an operational update.