Member Info for HarChris

Well I’m not sure who the chosen few are because management are taking a good chunk of their salary in shares and are resolutely holding without selling any. Nick is building up quite a holding, how does he benefit so without making a success of ECR? If ECR fails all he’d have achieved is a salary equivalent to a mid-ranking civil servant not a fat cat CEO leading a publicly listed company for half a decade.

Simply writing FACT after a comment doesn’t actually make it a fact.

Whilst it's taken time to get here, whilst the share price has been volatile (lol) to say the least over the past few years the fundamental investment case theory that Pre|CISION could totally transform the oncology landscape hasn't changed one iota in that time, there's been no climb downs like you see with most shares where the blue sky hype turns out not to be quite what it first seemed, nor has Avacta been so heavily diluted that even if that reality comes true it doesn't deliver the sort of share price returns we once hoped for.

We are getting close to finding out for sure if all the theory translates into reality and that really is exciting.

Almost exclusively general chat and helium discussion but Nick did say this when asked about something he'd proud of/has got right since becoming an executive in the small cap space:

''ECR which was in a very difficult place when I got involved, it is now absolutely flying. ECR two and a half years ago was pretty much bust, no money in the bank, struggling to pay anyone - its advisors, its staff, its bills... but two and a half years later we have a project called Raglan in Queensland and we're operating at site and becoming a gold producer. It's not been a smooth ride, there's been some challenges along the way and we've tried different things. We've drilled different projects, at one point we looked at a major restructuring that could have potentially released some of our tax losses for sale. We pulled back from that, we're holding the tax losses in the business and it was the right thing to do.'

Besides being previously scorned what is there to be so downbeat about right now? The company has set themselves up with considerable cash in the bank, debt-free, to produce gold at the height of a bull market. By every discernible measure ECR is in the best position it’s been in since Nick took on his role and that’s all one can really ask of someone brought in to save a company from what looked like inevitable collapse.

Sure success is not confirmed yet but to use a football analogy it’s like bringing in a manager to keep you up, they do, they have you top half of the league in the third season and fans are moaning about not winning the league already and about the former management that almost cost them their place in the football league three seasons before.

Those holding here will be feeling rather good about the prospects right now, those not and having previously lost money might, if they are that sort of person, being willing ECR to fail. That’s the truth of why this bb goes the way it does.

It's a joke... I want it to do as you predict this time obviously but I honestly feel better when you're predicting doom and gloom going by your record!

Kiss of death!

I know it seems long because of all the extra cohorts and the 3-3 trial design but 5 years from the start of p1a to the beginning of a registrational trial (in this case phase 2 registrational trial) is actually pretty standard for a first drug and that's what we should see here with ava6000 - according to online sources the average length of time is about 6 years and that includes big pharm trials whom faces far fewer delays due to being properly financed.

Add in the fact that ava6103 has moved from conception to in-human clinical trials at lightning speed shows we've actually seen a 180 from snail's pace p1a to full speed ahead since Christina has taken charge.

Just the other day you couldn't believe they had bought Raglan and yet the total assets on the balance sheet had gone down only to later be informed the very obvious that the Raglan deal and cash raise came AFTER the end of FY25.

You are under-researched and just babble away trying to find any angle you can to have a moan, it's transparent and childish.

Or simply a bit of patience is needed? The workforce was only acquired about seven weeks ago and ECR are under no urgent pressure to keep the market enthused now they are healthily funded.

I’d rather a big satisfying reveal rather than piecemeal updates that show a bit of gold produced here and a nugget there.

Only management knows what’s going on, hence my point of a small placing backed against a *£300m* valuation as a worst case is hardly scary or a reason to be fearful.

In answer to your question well we have surely learnt from the past the risks that come with relying on a deal with no contingency, so it would be perfectly understandable to shore up the finances even if a deal is very much expected in June following ESMO. Perhaps they expected the lifetime limit being lifted by the FDA months prior and hence their timelines have shifted ever so slightly?

We’re just guessing but it’s helpful and positive to highlight the risks and show that it’s still well worthwhile holding through to the end game here, let the traders run the risk of missing out for the sake of a modest downside protection.

Even the most negative posters are barely questioning the science anymore, they aren’t even arguing that catalysts are years away, at best their argument for being cautious is that a major commercial deal might not land for six months vs cash runway of four months.

If a worst case funding scenario is having to raise ~£10m to bridge a gap backed against a £250m valuation it’s hardly a reason to be fearful, it’s a dilution percentage you can count on one hand and so it’s a risk well worth holding through.

Vet, whilst I largely agree hence invested here don’t underestimate the challenge of pulling off major project finance and getting a uranium mine back into production - it’s no easy feat even with the backdrop on your side, uranium is highly radioactive and hazardous if mishandled and hence requires extremely stringent regulation, environmental and permitting steps.

Having the right team in place is without doubt the most important factor and I’m optimistic on this front now with De Wit and Theo cfo and ceo but like we’ve see with the recent pushback of timelines it will involve plenty of storms to navigate rather than plain sailing through to first production.

So yeah this is a risky investment but the potential rewards are enormous alongside.

Without doubt internal knowledge will start growing almost immediately, at least from early ish April given your scenario of dosing next week.

It’s almost like Thorn has said it’s too embarrassing for me to continue posting but here’s my baton, just keep repeating that there won’t be major news til the summer and that the share price will keep drifting, even if the share price isn’t drifting lower. I know it makes little sense but if you say it enough you might convince some people and at the very least you’ll be able to disrupt the bb. Thanks and good luck.

I didn’t see that post or the spike in volume that particular day, apologies. Ignore my comment

Andrada's only traded below 2p for about six days in its history and it would have been hard to buy large amounts sub 2p so whilst they must have a low average for those initial tranches I still expect average to be well above 2p.

They're well in profit either way but I suspect they set out for closer to 700% rather than 70%.

It makes little sense for a company like this wanting exposure to tin and critical metals to immediately start selling as soon as they've acquired shares. Bohercom's reasoning sounds more likely to me.

Many forget that just five months ago Blue Mountain was ECRs medium term (~18 months) production hope and equity raises were the only way to get to that point. Now many are getting hung up on just how much Raglan might contribute when in reality, at a bare minimum, it's going to cover a good half of G&A costs and that's really being pessimistic. Realistically it's going to cover the vast majority or, as Nick has said on numerous occasions, all the G&A and a little bit more.

And to think the share price is back to where it was, before Raglan was acquired, in September, when production was god knows how far away and the gold price was well below $4k. This. is. an. opportunity.

BV I thought you knew better than to directly respond to such nonsense and now we see the result. Naughty naughty slap on the wrist for you.

I know this is irrelevant because it’ll never be the case but I do think management of listed companies should have to tie all bonuses to the share price because that in the end of the day is the only metric that matters.

Why should management be rewarded for losing us money? Why should a difficult environment be a mitigating factor, do we receive compensation when our shares are down because of said difficult environment?

Sure if they make their shareholders money most wouldn’t begrudge seeing the actual workers and management get a Brucie bonus on top but surely not when the shareholders who are funding the company are losing money?