Member Info for HarChris

Past lack of delivery has made the market irrationally sceptical, anyone waiting for numbers to see profit in black and white are simply going to lose out.

We know from the latest accounts that at just $33k tin Andrada made a tiny operational loss and a £3m group-wide loss. The tin price, even factoring in the hedge, gives £5.1m more revenue per six month period without any expansion taking yearly operational profit to ~£9m and a healthy group-wide profit. There are also less group-wide costs now that BW and LR are both funded by external partners so even more cash will be generated.

Once the jig plant is commissioned any day and the hedge is lifted we will be seeing that operational profit rise to more like £20m. This is without the ore sorters which is a much bigger step change.

The EIB news has been lost on the market but it's massive. If that ever comes to life we know the scale we're talking as Andrada mentioned 50Ktpa of petalite production per annum. With the expected increase in 2.5Mtpa of mined ore to come producing 50000Tpa of 4% lithium is easily achievable, with the potential for treble that if there's the market to take it. We're talking $100m additional revenue per year with only modest ongoing costs (maybe 10 or 15% of that figure?). Personally i was doubtful this would ever actually happen but with the EIB involved and lithium prices soaring it's very much a possibility now.

Be fearful all you want due to past reasons and a feeling that Andrada 'got a bit of luck' but it might mean that the opportunity to build a stake passes you by.

And a timely reminder that the lithium producer working up Lithium Ridge is currently valued at $21B so would have no trouble stumping out multiples of Andrada’s current market cap for that one single project. And all sampling and drill results so far are highly positive with a plethora more due in the coming weeks and months.

There is no doubt that the tin price rise has been fortuitous for Andrada, it came at a crucial time that would otherwise have left them in a very sticky situation, either leading to painful dilution or a bulging of debt. But it’s happened, it’s high and it’s staying there.

So whilst it’s true that AV was too slow to bring on the scale necessarily to protect against a downturn, the tin price has bailed Andrada out… and now they are perfectly placed to take full advantage.

The investment case here is all about utilising UIs’ polymetallic ore body as well as maximising value from the other two major assets. And that’s what’s happening set against a booming commodity backdrop - lithium spodumene now almost four times higher than the low of just seven months ago, copper at all time highs, tungsten breaking all time high constantly. Tin at all time high. We are well into the drilling at Lithium Ridge with the world’s largest lithium producer at the helm, Brandberg West is partnered and the EIB is now onside which should make the lithium integration at Uis far more of a reality.

Sure a bit of luck has played its part here but boy is the setup absolutely perfect right now.

You don’t quite understand it as there’s a sliding scale you’re missing… we are expecting news on the commissioning of the jig plant any day that takes annual production to ~1325t (my my estimation) so on that sliding scale we see Orion royalty reduced considerably from 9.63% to about 6%.

It will likely take til next year to hit 1600t -2000t but still at 1325t that’s perhaps $61m revenue at high net margin even factoring in say $3.5m to Evolve.

You could certainly argue that Evolve expects Andrada's tin production to remain below 1600t contained tin for a while longer but it isn't necessary to see a profit on this, after all they will still get 3.6% return for a while longer even at 2000t, which could be 2000 x $45000 x 0.036 which is $3.3m a year and then a small percentage remains indefinitely for what is a 100+ year mine life so even if that were $1m a year they'll see a positive return and essentially revenue indefinitely. And with phase 2 Andrada could be producing many thousands of tonnes of tin per year and Evolve receive $2m+ for decades.

It's certainly a bet on Andrada remaining viable long term, which we obviously expect as shareholders but is validation of that. If there was any threat of Andrada's debt causing insolvency this would be a major risk for Evolve. It's also a reminder of what a uniquely high mine life Uis has.

We know ECR had around £1.5m in the bank as of last month with Raglan worked up to production. Going by previous cash burn that lasts until ~May 2027 if Raglan washes its face, meaning if Raglan produces $500k worth of gold over the next 12 months ($2k daily costs x 250 days). That's just 0.4 ounces per working day at $5k gold price meaning but from the conservative mine plan we can at least expect double that output, so not only does Raglan wash its face it should also contribute around $500k to the current cash pile pushing the cash runway into late 2027.

Of course there are plenty of variations both ways, cash thrown at exploration may be greater or less than previous now Raglan is generating, gold produces could still underperform against what we've been told are conservative targets or they could truly be conservative and we end up seeing more like 300 ounces ie $1.5m revenue generated over the next 12 months etc

What we know for sure is that if management deploy funding prudently like they have in the past the very worst case is ECR are funded well into 2027. The best case is essentially an alluvial gold producer self funded to greater and greater scale that's able to work up a genuinely large operation at Lolworth. And maybe some left field avenues to catch the market out along the way too.

No that is simply false. Six months ago Andrada WERE in a very sticky and dangerous position. They had barely any cash, plenty of debt, no way of funding Brandberg West, no way of funding the lithium Uis expansion, lithium price at rock bottom anyway, the share price starting with a 2 (terrible for debt conversion), tin price at $34k with any decline likely to have serious consequences.

Fast forward today and Brandberg West is funded, the EIB have put up a grant to initiate lithium DFS, the tin price has soared north meaning Uis is generating cash, lithium price has trebled from lows, debt is reducing slightly through conversions and first assays from lithium ridge are highly encouraging.

Andrada is not burning cash as of today, fact. Do they need additional funding to settle July CLN? Yes and this is probably what the $3m advance is to go towards. Or the ore sorter expansion. But they aren’t operationally loss making anymore and with the jig plant commissioning surely any day and the hedge soon to end with tin still on the edge of $50k Andrada is a totally different prospect to what it was six months ago. And will go from slightly profitable today to highly cash generative.

Agree with the other poster that says we need certain operational RNS’ to start the rerate but the derisking here compared to six months ago is light and day.

He repeated the dumb simplified claim that every day without a deal from here on out (late Jan) the share price would trickle down, be it into 40s, 30s who knows until a discounted placing comes.

He refused to acknowledge the land inbetween, one where genuine progress as we near a major moment in the company’s development (6103 in human) could stabilise and support the share price. When we got that great left field news of the FDA removing the lifetime limit of Dox he flounced out as he knew his repeatedly negative would have less and less of an audience.

It’s always been the case, despite the price action of the last few years, that the long and committed holders are the ones that are going to make life changing returns. The traders will make a few quid

Richy, let’s be honest, many will have sold due to a lack of timely delivery by AV. Since the backdrop has started playing perfectly into Andrada’s hands and AV has started to really deliver, at least on the partnership front.

So we’re going to have disgruntled ex-holders willing this to fail given that dynamic, the best we can do is politely challenge any negative narrative if there’s reason to do so.

The point is the 21p isn’t some way out there blue sky target, it’s Hannam’s attempt to value the business as it is today. It’s not inconceivable for Andrada’s share of Lithium Ridge being bought out for 21p alone. Brandberg West has even more potential.

It's far less a debt and far more a prepayment/advance with a key partner of Andrada's.

It's possible it's needed for the jig plant but less likely at that size, much more likely to be to progress ore sorters or to cover the CLN maturity in July.

Absolutely, take it with a pinch of salt, was just answering said posters question.

As for their valuation I can see Andrada far surpassing their targets for Uis phase 1 as tin price is way above the numbers they use + can see Lithium Ridge being worth multiples of the $55m current ascribed to it in that 21p valuation.

Lots of upside however you look at it.

Hannam increased their price target to 21p the other week

You don't put out punchy statements like this and then go and do some bucket shop discounted AIM placing...

The next few months are sure going to be interesting.

My optimistic read is that ATM wanted more cash upfront to expedite the ore sorter expansion rather than relying solely on the internal positive cash flows that they are now seeing. In return Thaisarco gets exclusive rights to Andrada's increasing tin production. Very good news.

And as for the backdrop lithium price soaring today and tin just off $50k!

ECR has done this for the past two years, trickles down and sideways for months and then explodes north in just a few short trading days, with 50%+ gains.

This cycle was always impacted by cash needs, with that now absent there’s nothing stopping the next explosive move north being more like 150%+

It is now no stretch of the imagination to fast forward a few years to a debt-free ECR possibly generating greater net profit than today's market cap.

The Risk to reward is exception, there's no question about that.

Exactly two years ago a cash-strapped ECR was trading at the same price as today. They had a far lower mcap to raise against, they weren't even talking gold production as it was too far away to be a part of the discussion, they had barely done any drilling across their tenements, the gold price was $2100/oz.

Light and day.

You're not wrong in noticing the rapid expansion of Flixbus but worth remembering that (i) a lot of their business came from the exit of MegaBus rather than directly taking business from National Express and (ii) the UK bus/coach service only makes up a fraction of group-wide revenue, the growth or not of ALSA is the most important factor here followed by managing the heavily loss making German division.

How about this, with ticker on the NYSE:DNN?

https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-receives-final-regulatory-approval-to-cons-122843/

Has larger uranium resource than Beisa producing more in ten years than Beisa will in 20 and expected online in 2028 so there’s one for started. When you add in Beisa’s gold ounces they are even stevens though I think.