Member Info for HarChris

And just to give some workings there Gib: the Goantagab agreement was for 20000tpm 1.5% Sn ore which is 3000tpa, 2520t with 70% recoveries and add in some downtime and sub 100% utilisation but still easily clears 2000t (profit split) with just half of the second jig plant utilised.

So it's 3000t+ with jig plant and Goantagab ore, obviously this is transformational but at least now we're far from relying on it for the rerate.

Yeah... the other path with the high grade ore sees production figures fly straight past 2000t to more like 3000t.

Not relying on that but would be an explosive upside if we got something left field and positive.

2000t can be reached without Goantagab... the pre concentration circuit ie the ore sorters are expected to add 60% to the current steady state output, that's 600t contained tin. The jig plant at 40ktpm of ore at 70% recovery could conceivably add 450t but more likely closer to 300t so putting that altogether by, say this time next year, we should be looking at something like 1050t + 600t + 300t which is close to 2000t contained tin.

Obviously Goantagab would boost this significantly more but it's not necessary as long as current projects are delivered successfully.

With the other two assets covered + financing costs reducing the tin operation and all administrative group-wide costs should come in around $40m going forward - once the jig plant is fully online we should be looking at something like a run rate of 1325 x $45000 giving $60m so a large FCF and that's with a price well off the current one today.

Add in the ore sorters at some point in the interim period and you can see how the Orion CLN is covered could be easily covered through cash generation between July 2026 and November 2027, this is soon to be very profitable venture.

We should remember that as part of the mining application the applicant needs evidence that they are able to fund the project, something that up until very recently must have been a challenge - now instead they are applying with considerable cash in the bank and a revenue generating asset alongside.

There are two CLNs in play - the first was entered into in July 2023 and due in July 2026, it's unsecured though so there'll likely be wiggle room as to renegotiation. The other is the Orion CLN due November 2027. Both can be converted at 9.45p a share.

The former is the only near term debt liability and was certainly a major risk six months ago, now much less so. Bring the jig online soon and if tin price remains elevated and it could even be met with the recent + ongoing cash generation.

We should remember that Orion has a CLN in play that could well still end up converting into shares at 9.45p plus considerable warrants at the same price. By selling out and selling the royalty they've guaranteed a very significant profit and if all comes together as hoped they will return to having a meaningful holding once again through the conversion and warrants.

With the ore sorters and lithium integrated we’ll have more than fives times the revenue and a 100 year mine life. Isn’t it better to have both?

And yeah richy timing really has been fortunate re Lithium Ridge. Was always going to take a while for the acquisition and all the Namibian bank approvals and prep work but that was all completed mid last year and now SQM are well into the drilling at such an opportune time.

For me the main difference today is that there’s zero risk that SQM can buy the project out on the cheap - a very real threat when lithium prices were on their ar*e and ATM was strapped for cash. Now in a position to command whatever the true value is.

I don’t have that power but I shan’t let such an ironic faux pax go unnoticed!

Except my post doesn’t get 40 recommends because of some delusion like claiming the world is flat, it got it for pointing out that you’ve not been right in anyway about this share and imaging so IS the delusion… and the vast majority of sensible clear thinkers on here can see that too. In fact I’ll take it further and say the few times you do actually commit to a position publicly on here with a target it never ever is correct which shows you have zero ability to actually read the direction of travel. Again, trading is a totally different thing but your insight and read of this share is definitely no better than anyone else’s.

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And it’s much easier to wait patiently with Andrada profitable and all the other portfolio metals either at all time highs or two year highs.

Uis has a 100 year mine life, the updates will come when they come without the urgency of the past when ATM were blitzing through cash.

I’d be bothered if this was all our news out the way and there was nothing left to push the share price on but I’m expecting multiple assay result RNS’ from Lithium Ridge, jig plant commissioning, an update on ore sorters, FY results, updates to start from Brandberg West, updates re lithium DFS, an update on Goantagab mining claims.

Busy, busy, busy.

The putting to bed of a rights issue makes this a rather interesting proposition for a rerate now. Don't ever expect shorts to make it easy but it does feel like they might just have to find a way to exit now.

It's 'back to school' not 'back too school'.

Back to school for you.

Billy, the question you have to ask yourself is if you think this has the potential to be a recovery play. Obviously there have been ongoing issues for some time but it's whether you are convinced by the steps taken re the German business and whether Alsa can continue to deliver stronger and stronger revenue and margin over time. Mobico was a multibillion pound company earlier in the 2020s after all and it's now a case of whether there's a path back to there or not, investment-wise.

The have to be answering cash questions? Really? With an untapped £600m facility?

Be realistic, Mobico is valued at just £135m for a reason... nobody is expecting a 1:1 ratio of FCF to market cap.

Beating the headline figure is a big deal.

I always laugh when Wyn says he's called it more right than everyone else because he's not actually called anything. Day traders don't commit either way, they are never right or wrong because they inherently aren't betting on that, they're just following the trend and riding it effectively more often than not to scalp a profit overall.

That's fine but it's pointless to compare with investors. For now, obviously, a day trader is going to have done better than almost all Avacta investors over the past few years, of course they are because the share price is well off its highs. I'm doing better than most investors on the majority of AIM shares too by simply not investing any money in them! This is high risk small cap investing, it's conviction investing, you're wrong until you are very, very right. In a year's time we'll have all lost a ton or we'll have made a very significant return and possibly life changing returns for many of us. The traders will have either lost a small bit or made a small bit as they place small trades here and there along the way.

They are two separate and entirely valid approaches but it always grates when I hear traders claiming to be right... if I caution that despite everyone thinking it'll be sunny tomorrow I state that we could also see grey skies or it could rain it doesn't make me a bloody meteorologist!

Yeah. The company deserves til Friday before the pitchforks come out...

Very true. It's also worth noting that the ore sorter circuit is a critical front-end upgrade that paves the way for the lithium beneficiation plant. It is conceivable that by the end of this year we have a DFS for the lithium and the ore sorter circuit commissioned meaning construction could feasibly start around the same time.

I suspect there will be doubts over speed of progress considering the recent past and understandably so but a few key deliverables in the coming months and investors might just start trusting the timescales once again.