Member Info for HarChris

Personally I’m hoping SQM end up paying that sort of money for Lithium Ridge alone, leaving ATM with copious cash to build out the other two assets.

They’re a $22B company, they don’t deal in the tens of millions so a lowball offer would probably still be $300m+ if attempting a today.

I didn’t invest in ATM for 3.5X return but if that were to happen I’m sure a few would be happy to take their money and move on.

We are building towards a potential perfect storm as we head towards June time. We’ll know as the days pass that there’s no significant issues with the 6103 trial, we will likely get hints as to whether it’s performing as hoped. Alongside we have the p1b release including ~12 weeks of additional data post-dose limit removal (assuming data cut-off late April) and then if a deal were to land all bets are off as to share price reaction.

I like the set up here very much.

I think a gradual build this week.

Every raise at Avacta sees ~10 days of share price retracement to the placing strike price before breaking out and heading sharply north.

Now with the 6103 trial having started every day without news is good news (there’s always a slim chance of some immediate trial issue) and so in combination I expect this will be the week when the share price starts moving positively again.

Fingers crossed this is the start of a great year ahead!

In hindsight it was a necessary evil. Small cap biotech firms don't get many chances , sometimes they don't get any second chances, and so it's totally understandable that they decided to push the dose higher and learn as much as possible from their first drug in human.

It also slowly eroded the momentum that Avacta had from the LFT and covid era and then you add in Heights and that's why we suddenly are where we are today. Momentum is everything on AIM, when it's with you you can rise from 15p to 250p a share or whatever avacta got to in 2021 and when it's against you and you're in a pre-revenue biotech constantly needing more cash, well only the most unignorable news changes it.

We're not there yet but we're getting close to finding out if pre|CISION is the real deal or not, armed with at least the knowledge that it isn't a flop (you don't easily smash the baseline SOC PFS across p1a and p1b if your technology is garbage). That's how we get to a situation where it really could be 70p today and something many times that in say 12 months time.

‘’ Chris: "It’s a shame no phase 1 data has been shared publicly" I think so too, but it’s not a "shame" is it? If the data suggests a breakthrough it would have to be RNS'd as it would affect the SP.’’

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I was clearly talking about Legubicin still and their STS results. They have excellent phase2/3 data but haven’t released any phase 1 (it’s Chinese owned). It would have been interesting to know if efficacy was seen in their phase 1 for the read across but that dara isn’t in the public domain.

You’re so desperate to find fault in what I’m saying that you can’t even follow the thread.

It’s a shame no phase 1 data has been shared publicly , it would have been interesting to know if they were seeing such durable results from the get-go or if it took the later pivotal study with majority first-line therapy patients to deliver such data.

And for 84% of the patients it was the first line therapy.

It’s got to be said BV that the Legubicin results are impressive, particularly the doubling of the PFS and the starkly improved safety profile vs Dox. It’s interesting that CC has started talking up STS again though since the lifting of the lifetime Dox limit, if she thinks ava6000 can top this then she really is confident in the drug and the platform.

The other metrics were 80.9% DCR (Avacta seeing significantly higher but from much lower sample size) and an ORR of 23.6% , with no complete responses (some idiots on twitter claim that ava6000 should have been seeing CRs in P1a).

What is consistent against all the recognised treatments for almost all metastatic disease indications is that the PFS' are all in a very low range of single figure months. It shows that even in the cases where many partial responses are seen sadly in a good percentage of those cases the cancer cells that survived the initial treatment start to grow again fairly quickly, maybe just a few months down the line. This is why the ava6000 PFS is so meaningful, it has already shown for many of the patients to halt their growth for well over a year now, in metastatic SGC patients that are very ill and had seen their tumour spread to other parts of the body. When looking for treatments with a higher PFS than the above this is what I found with grok:

''In the relapsed/refractory metastatic settings that AVA6000 and AVA6103 are targeting (SGC, TNBC, PDAC, gastric/GEJ, SCLC, cervical/vulvar), median PFS is almost always 3–6 months even with the best approved therapies. Achieving a median PFS of 12 months or more in these populations is exceptional and uncommon. Recent standout: Legubicin (QHL-108) in a Phase 2/3 trial showed median PFS of 10.4 months vs 4.9 months with doxorubicin (2025–2026 data).''

That last line is interesting as that is the study that led to CC shifting focus from STS to SGC... for all the crap we got from Thorn about how ''suddenly STS gets dropped'' the facts are that Legubicin's high PFS result is a major outlier.

This should remind everyone that 6000s results so far really are exceptional, pre|CISION works and the shift to SGC is only because that Legubicin study caught management off-guard with an exceptional result. There's every reason to believe 6103 is going to deliver too.

There's an obvious difference between 6000 and 6103 and it's that with the former we need to see the targeting of Fap-Dox within the tumour microenvironment lead to stronger efficacy than Dox alone whereas with 6103 it's different, it's not a head to head with free Exatecan because that's never been approved in that form.

As for the standard of care here's examples of what 6103 will be up against... you have this for pancreatic (PDAC: Gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel: ORR ≈ 17–24%, median PFS ≈ 3.1–5.1 months, median OS ≈ 6.4–8.6 months.

Liposomal irinotecan + 5-FU/LV: ORR ≈ 10–15%, median PFS ≈ 3–4 months, median OS ≈ 6.2 months.

Overall, 2nd-line PDAC remains very challenging — ORR is typically <20% and PFS is short (2–5 months)

For cervical/vulvar: Tisotumab vedotin: ORR ≈ 17.8%, median PFS ≈ 4.2 months, median OS ≈ 11.5 months.

Chemotherapy control arm: ORR ≈ 5.2%, median PFS ≈ 2.9 months, median OS ≈ 9.5 months.

For Gastric: Ramucirumab + paclitaxel: ORR ≈ 20–28%, median PFS ≈ 4–5 months, median OS ≈ 8–10 months.

T-DXd (HER2+ 2nd line): ORR ≈ 40–50%+ in recent data, significantly better PFS/OS than ramucirumab + paclitaxel.

Later-line single-agent chemo (e.g., trifluridine/tipiracil): ORR ≈ 5–15%, median PFS ≈ 2–3 months.

When you look at the above you've got to think there's a lot of leeway here. Results in human don't need to be as exquisite as the preclinical, we just need to see the sustained release mechanism working as designed and the safety results taming Exatecan enough to make the drug tolerable and we're onto a winner.

BP does deals when they are sufficiently content that the tech is derisked. That’s it. On a healthier exchange progress would be reflected in the share price, on AIM that’s not happening in a bear market (remember the opposite is true, when AIM is booming any old update sees the price chased up and up).

So all the share price tells us is that BP haven’t been ready for a TO up until now. That’s it really. Its binary in that sense but obviously the actual chance constantly changes and if you believe we’re nearer than ever to that moment then the risk/reward is far more compelling than it ever was. No one genuinely thinks Avacta is 3 times less likely to be an ultimate success than it was when it was trading at £2 a share years ago.

I look at peers on AIM and conclude that at £300m mcap there is sufficiently belief in this company, if there wasn’t it would have slumped to a tiny mcap like almost every AIM company in that sector that got an initial ‘covid boost’.

Some of us are putting our money where are mouths are, others will just claim to have made a fortune if this turns out as hoped and crow on here if it doesn’t!

In early 2024 Avacta raised £31.1m against a £144m market (50p, 288m shares in issue).

Anyone arguing £10m was the max Avacta could raise at this pivotal stage is just trolling. This £300m company which is mainly PI owned didn't even open up the placing to retail which is where the majority of its support comes, logic says that the amount raised was a strategic decision rather than forced. The likelihood is that there are deals on the table but they don't match management's expectations and so the next best choice is to collect more crucial 6000 data now that the lifetime limit has been lifted as well as platform defining 6103 data. If it was a binary as some claim, literally 50/50 I am certain CC would play this a bit safer and would have raised at least £20m to provide some options if the next nine months were to end up Tails when she'd called Heads.

For me the share price is mainly a reflection of the AIM market. When there's liquidity almost all companies boom and vice versa. During bear markets its very difficult for pre revenue businesses to swim against that tide - it's not impossible but it's challenging. And so progress can be made like we've seen at Avacta yet with the share price going south - if you compared Avacta's AIM biotech peers over say the past three years you'd find Avacta 50% down vs the vast majority 90%+ , many have actually gone under.

So steady progress with 6000 hasn't been enough to make Avacta the outlier that multibags during low liquidity times like this, 6103's preclinical data hasn't been enough either so now we hope management's belief that the next nine months will do that is proved correct. You pay your money and take your chances.

It's a testament to the new management at Avacta that the narrative is overwhelmingly positive here. Dozens of negative posters have come and gone not because they were bullied off the bb (most of them thrive off the controversy and pushback) but because the downside talking points have largely been delegitimised over the past six months or so. Many of those same posters are still here having now gone long.

Most question marks have been addressed bar the share price. There's a major acknowledgement of that in the choice to only extend the runway another six months at 63p, only part-funding the 6103 trial, because as you say it should at least take us to the point where we really do know whether this is an industry changing platform or something less transformational. And management seem genuinely convinced that it's the former...

And let's hope the decision to raise just £10m is also because a 6000 deal is expected post May readout.

''I only post this because there is no poster now reminding others that it is approaching any day/week now, crunch time, when at last it will be revealed if AVCt really have got hold of something.''

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I regularly state similar but without the pomposity.

Long term holders have been waiting for crunch time for what feels like forever. We're either soon to become far wealthier and come to learn that the technology we've invested in and researched to death is the real deal after all or we'll end up looking like fools in the poorhouse. Exciting months ahead!

The idea that there are a big cohort of investors that sit around waiting for placings to immediately flip for 1% or whatever profit they can get is surely nonsense. This year most AIM placings I’ve observed have seen the share price instantly drop below the strike price, in some cases by quite some margin. How does that fit into the flippers strategy?

With the extra rig I expect the aim is to complete all the drilling well before 2026 is out.

The last £16m raise which led to 60% more shares being issued than this time:

Oct 20th - £16m placing announced @ 63p

Nov 3rd - Admission day, share price closed that day @ 72p

The following week saw a close of 81.5p with share price remaining in 80s for weeks til update was received poorly.

You've all got your chance to buy in at the same price as the special few invited to the placing now.