Member Info for HarChris

Valuing SGC in isolation is kinda pointless. That's like valuing avacta in the way you would a miner that has one small project and saying 'hopefully they'll find another deposit' This is totally different.

They are going after SGC purely because a tiny biotech with such limited resources has to go for the lowest hanging fruit first, not because they aren't capable of also beating the standard of care for STS & TNBC... approval goes towards proving the pre|CISION concept and there therefore comes a point when BP sees enough to produce a read across valuation for the platform and takes over the whole thing knowing full well what they would be able to achieve with unlimited resources.

Do not underestimate what the SGC data is telling us. Doxorubicin is chemo-refractory, there are no studies showing it works against SGC in isolation but in combination with cyclophosphamide and cisplatin it's shown modest enough effects to be used in some circumstances. AVA6000 has come along and tamed advanced metastatic SGC cancers delivering Doxorubicin alone, controlling disease in 90% of cases and far exceeding the PFS of those combo protocols that are the best clinicians have to work with currently. That is huge and goes a long way to proving what Avacta has here.

Strong early data from 6103 and avacta doesn't stay independent for long.

You continually state that you don't understand the science and imply that others don't either but then you go on to prove that you don't understand even the most basic of concepts and haven't done basic research around the most important elements of the business.

As for why no standard treatment/standard of care rarity is a factor but it's more complicated. SGC is highly heterogenous with dozens and dozens of subtypes. It is rare to begin with but it's important to note that treatments like ADCs aren't broad-based like pre|CISION and so there's even less economic value for them. E.g adc's have shown promise in smaller studies for HER2-positive salivary duct carcinoma (SDC) & also adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) but those trials never progressed to larger scale.

For the broad-based approach there are no large randomised trials that have clearly shown an increase in overall survival in the advanced metastatic setting and therefore there are no successful protocols to treat SGC. Unlike many other cancers that have numerous options for cancer sufferers to decide between, those diagnosed with SGC have few to zero decent options and hence there's significant high unmet need.

They haven't all increased 2-10X. I could name a couple of gold producers on AIM that are down over 2/3 year timelines and a good half a dozen more explorers that are down. ECR is still viewed as an explorer by some that will never deliver and therein lies the opportunity if you believe the management that they are on the cusp of multiple revenue generating projects.

If you don't believe it, sure look elsewhere, but if you back ECR and they execute even modestly (and gold price plays ball) then this is a multibagger over the coming six to twelve months. I pay my money and take my chances, same for everyone.

What a totally illogical strategy it would be to pivot away from the commodity that's spiking due to a global shortage that's going to endure for many months, maybe years.

Nicks not set the world alight here, I'm happy saying that. The share price is almost exactly where it was when he joined but over a period where many, many small caps have gone to the wall he's got ECR into a position where there's a real clear path to a transformed business and a share price many times higher than it is today.

Jury is still out for me, let's see where we are by the end of this year.

Do you honestly still fail to fully grasp the concept of ‘unmet need’ at this stage?! You think it means number of deaths?

I know right?! We’re all trying to stay grounded and are willing to wait for the main course to be revealed but they keep throwing out all these breadcrumbs. And we aren’t the types to waste good quality food scraps!

Yeahhh, would have been nice to meet you both.

Was that a yes or no to science day ?

Wyn, D-Geeman, CLOUDWATER, are you guys attending the science day? It would be great to put to bed the rumours of multiple aliases once and for all!

No mention of RNS that morning, just updates... that could be as simple as a new slide deck.

No news is good news but it doesn’t apply indefinitely, just for the first four or five weeks post first 6103 dose… I think we’re there now.

Well I'm also speaking from the position of someone who remained sceptical of AS throughout his tenure (was never enamoured by the diagnostics approach) and also wondered if we were in fact a tad early after the share price rallied in late 2023 whilst still stuck in phase 1a. And of someone that became a long term holder only once CC took over as CEO and doubled and trebled my holding upon the appointment of Richard Hughes so I don't think I can be classed as a hindsight investor here.

Exactly. AS was likely responding honestly but to very early data. He was also speaking from a position of (all but confirmed ) negotiating a deal with Seagen leading him to think there was every justification to be so bullish publicly.

Two and a half years on CC grows ever more confident in language whilst having access to tons more 6000 data and a month of 6103 data. You can sit here and say history shows that nothing is certain until it’s certain (which is true) but when the upside is many, many multiples and there’s no obvious benefit at this stage (a week before science day where CC is facing shareholders) to mislead then one surely comes to the conclusion that the highly experienced ceo in this field is genuinely believing that Avacta are on the verge of something transformational - and that holders are sat here with a very decent chance of success.

#HopeWithoutCompromise***

grr autocorrect.

I think it’s time we called out CC for being the biggest ramper trader out there - pumps her #hopenotcompromise , dumps when the rsi hits 75. Rinse and repeat.

Filthy behaviour.

Some will continually blabber on about how confident AS seemed to be only for developments to play out differently but a number of years on now armed with tons more data and with lessons learnt from AS… would CC really be using such language if she wasn’t really damn sure of what Avacta are sitting on here?

I don’t think so.

Don't forget Andrada have already given up up to 49% of the Brandberg West asset, it's unlikely this new investor for example is here purely for the 51% of BW.

I'm certainly starting to feel the same way but a TO at the sort of 10p level isn't pie in the sky, it's the sort of price ($400m?) that would be a drop in the ocean for the likes of SQM if they fancied building a mulitbillion dollar multiasset business out of Namibia. If the assets are proven up enough then maybe it'll end up being the best way to crystallise some profit.

Yes. Most likely. The question is at what valuation can they command that investment if they have proven up in situ assets of $5B+ ? Hopefully much higher than current sub £4m mcap.

Also possible left field funding options of JV partnership or even a sale of the Rukwa coal assets.