Member Info for HarChris

That's just not true: ''Her early career began in large pharmaceutical companies including Wyeth, Pfizer and Novartis. Christina has since held several senior leadership roles in biotech companies including Immunocore (NASDAQ: IMCR), Tmunity and Rubius where she was Chief Medical Officer, leading clinical development, translational medicine and regulatory efforts across the pipelines of those companies. Most recently she served as the Chief Executive Officer of Cytolmmune Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the development of novel cancer immunotherapy products.''

I'd much prefer someone with experience across the board like Christina has rather than just a bog standard business professional with no frontline experience.

It's always clear on negative days like today how enthused you, you get so carried away and lost in your giddiness.

''Why won't BP wait until the next cash raise halves the mkt cap again'' you say.

Go on give us a scenario where you think Avacta raises in the coming weeks and the market cap is 'halved', that means £80m market cap. Let's hear it. How about a few quid raised at 18p, is that what you're saying?

You love to make out your some emotionless deep thoughtful commentator yet occasionally you really let your guard slip and you show just how much you want this investment to fail.

You know damn well Wyn there's no world in which (i) data keeps delivering and (ii) Avacta goes into administration and BP pick up Avacta for peanuts so why entertain that scenario besides deep unwarranted fearmongering? How does Avacta go into administration when it has no unsecured debt? The absolute worst situation is a large dilutive placing whilst paying the CLN in shares each quarter.

As for ''The last cash raise was 50p. Whats changed since then until now apart from more data and a 25% fall in the SP?''

Well the fact that P1a is well behind us including the execution of a rapid RDE arm and a P1b in three indications including TNBC that can give us an early data read out in just four months time. And there will still be ~£20m cash to get us there + another ~£20m in cash from Dx which must be very close now to being announced. And clear moves are being made to take Avacta to the US via the nasdaq.

A lot has changed in 12 months.

It's understandable that this vacuum will lead to many thinking the worst, it's been the case in the past and it's always possible that it'll be the case again. But we aren't in the same position as a year ago, we had become aware back then that P1a really could just go on and on and long term holders had to just stomach that fact and take away the positives, the extra data that was accumulating and the exceptional safety profile it proved.

We now have a P1b going ahead targeted at the patient population that will show the greatest efficacy across three indications and come as close to unequivocally proving the platform as we can get. We are going to see more a large and far more compelling dataset in just six months than we got from three years from P1a. We are so close to when the data can do the talking and sure there's some uncertainty right now as the DX sale drags on but when you think of how long it took to get to this stage sucking up a bit more volatility until we get there in late Q2/early Q3 shouldn't be too tough.

My take:

If gold fell to $2000/oz, still cash cow at Segilola next few years, still get sign off for Douta, still arguably undervalued given balance sheet.

If gold fell to $2500/oz, enormous cash generation that easily eclipses market cap over next two years. No question undervalued.

If gold stays here medium term at $2900/oz, well I’ve said enough about that already.

If gold does go a bit crazy as some of these theories are wondering aloud…

If giants like Barrick want to stay in the geographic region they are familiar with (West Africa) but diversify out of the highest risk jurisdiction (Mali) then you never know, established miners like that might start having a good look at the likes of THX.

One of the biggest risks here is a lowball TO now and that’s why it’s essential mgmt start properly supporting the share price - would be a travesty if sold on the cheap for say $300m.

Here’s an interesting article that highlights the risk and rewards of mining in Africa: https://african.business/2025/02/resources/miners-struggle-to-raise-capital-for-african-critical-minerals-projects

Access to capital is top of the list of downsides and that’s why THX is so significantly derailed now and ever increasingly so - they are in the almost unprecedented position for a small cap of being able to fund their next flagship project from internally generated cash revenue (pushing timelines out a bit).

That’s unheard of.

These are two separate things. IF Avacta needs to raise further funds soon then yes they have to deliver operationally in the near term.

If Dx sale is all but announced and there really is no plan whatsoever to raise before data readouts later this year then all is under control.

We won’t know until it becomes clear.

What about if both land by the follow Monday, 25th February. That’s Dx sale for a good price and a nasdaq ipo with a premium subscription. Would that be acceptable or does it HAVE to be this week?

Https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/a-theory-on-gold

It’s more than possible that we see an even bigger bull run in gold over the coming months - would be great to have some of the big news we’re waiting on land with price of gold exceeding $3000/oz.

Something that isn't currently being grasped / priced in is the sheer reduction in risk that the past 12-15 months of cash generation has achieved. Rewind those 12-15 months and THX had just gone and posted a $10m profit and is slowly working down its liabilities but with POG hovering around the $2000/oz mark there is no guarantee of what the future holds for them. Imagine gold had fallen back slightly in early 2024 instead of what happened, THX would still have posted some profit for 2024 but the outlook for Douta would be much bleaker now. We would be sat here crossing our fingers re a new financing deal to fund Douta but we would by no means be sure of it, with considerable debt still on the books and a tough gold environment to raise up to $175m. And if debt was off the table we would be talking an even lower share price and a massive dilutive event to get to production in Senegal.

Instead there's not even any speculation re financing Douta. Cash is free to now rise $10m+ per month... There's zero speculation around an equity raise, zero question marks of whether mgmt pull off a debt deal. THX have already paid off the previous AFC loan in its entirety and so there's every reason to assume (and has been stated by Segun) that not only is a new deal inevitable but it will be on far better terms.

All this talk of being high risk is laughable. Relatively speaking this investment has never been less risky. You go back just over three years and THX was attempting to become the first major gold producer ever in Nigeria - there's jurisdiction risk, debt risk, execution and operational risk... the lot!

Of course some risk remains, it always will, but it's nothing like it was at any other point in Thor's history. Besides short term knocks does anyone truly believe THX in a year or so's time will have actually fallen from this level? Does anyone think they will be mining at Douta and Segilola, side-by-side, with almost no debt (debt raised in 2026 will be quickly paid down) and be looking at a sub $150m valuation? I highly doubt it.

It's more a case of how high this can go given the historic share price challenges and over what timeframe.

We know we are getting at least two big updates this quarter, so that’s two within six weeks. We also know there will be about eight RNS’ before Q2 is out, that’s one every other week on average. Exact timing is unknown but this is as news rich as it gets for THX with the biggest updates well overdue.

You only have to look at the geopolitical front to see that POG is going to be highly supportive for a long while to come.

Were ’stuck’ in this range of 20p support and 23 resistance but with the right news, which is coming, it will smash through it with nothing but blue sky above.

Haha Kaeren that made me laugh - hope you’re well!

And then there’s plenty like me I’m sure seeing this discounted placing price as a great entry opportunity, with funding now in place to reach production, revenue and cash generation to fund development through 2025 and beyond.

I waited patiently to finally enter, think this might turn out to be lift off later this month.

Greyw, it's been too long now at this undervaluation so personally I'd like to see it get to fair value asap, or at least closer to that.

I'm as confident as I can be though that the share price will be a few multiples from here, minimum, come mid year. The ~$95m net income full year number will draw in investors with THX flagged as having one of the lowest PEs of any producer globally ( sub 2 assuming SP hasn't already risen) and the as much as $40m net profit in Q1 only adding to that interest and attention ( close to a PE of 1).

By then THXs long term future will be looking far brighter with a PFS that showcases an initial mine life to ~2038 and possibly even the plan for Segilola's mine life extension to ~2030 having already landed (although expect more drilling results through H1 then MLE plan Q3).

The biggest unknown will always be gold price but we could see it fall right back towards $2000/oz and the case for an undervaluation could still be made... and if it goes even higher...

They owed a PR company £12k, they paid them in shares.

The sell off is quite telling here, there really is no room for error going forward and realistically they are going to need to raise some equity to reduce the debt risk.

A strong share price is essential to allow that to happen but there doesn’t seem to be much support - maybe a strong quarterly cashew update will do it.

I do agree, the risk isn’t worth it now.

Better to wait and see and if progress is made I’m sure there will still be a sub 2p entry opportunity with far less risk taken on.

Ignore the clown, he’s been saying Thor is going to zero. Yes zero. A debt free company with net asset value heading to $500m and generating absurd amounts of cash is ‘going to zero’.

You can’t debate such childishness.

Soon. We aren't talking a producer in three years time, we're talking 4-6 months.

The current ATH gold price IS relevant.