Member Info for HarChris

Where we differ is that I believe the lack of news actually suggests there’s very little to conclude here. And that’s what Segun implied to me also.

In other words Osun made all these allegations and said they were closing down the mine etc and the federal government stepped in and slapped them down. Sure there’s some committee report being conducted but realistically THX management will know the outcome as they are close to the federal officials and the reality on the ground is that they are full steam ahead re Segilola mine life extension and now investing more heavily in the lithium side of things. They have zero concerns about the jurisdiction.

Segun went as far as saying to me that no news is good news on this front. I asked if we will definitely see some conclusion to this event and he just said as long as the committee report is published then yeah but even that wasn’t a definite. If they’ve completely moved on with nothing to add we might not even get a proper conclusion that some are waiting for, it will just disappear into the ether and eventually everyone will accept that.

Reckon Mara goes to 15p? That’s an entry I like the look of.

To think gold was below $2000/oz for most of 2023 yet the share price still averaged 17p and there was none of these big catalysts just around the corner.

These sorts of news items aren’t discrete events and their impact depends on a number of factors but whatever rns ends up providing the drive and momentum to get the SP up and away from the 23p resistance could see it do a 100% move.

If that happens to be some federal government update then great!

In the meantime whilst we wait for it and the PFS and news on a possible buybacks let’s see POG touch $3000/oz.

I'm not convinced but here's one prediction I hope you get right because I'd love to see a 50% rise off something I'm confident is coming. In the meantime POG looks primed to make another new all time high.

Bad attention? I'd say no attention as we haven't had a meaningful RNS for about a month. Boredom and impatience causes a pullback after a decent rise.

Buying should start in earnest whenever next RNS is predicted to land.

I just meant a couple of updates that catch attention - it could just as easily be Douta PFS and then a buyback announced. Or PFS followed by those eye catching full year results that send THX onto the radar of many (PE of 2 falling to 1).

I don't think anyone is waiting on any one specific bit of news is my main point.

Well you just predicted a 10% rise from a positive update re Osun state so hardly a major catalyst in your eyes.

I don’t believe there’s any one factor holding this up, it’s just AIM and you don’t tend to get to fair value smoothly, the disconnect remains longer than you ever expect and then some news lands that’s either too good to ignore or generates enough hype for a rerate to happen in one fell swoop.

My guess is it’ll be a combination of updates, one after another, than does it. Perhaps something relating to fed support + Douta PFS with buyback scheme/dividend following closely.

That’s a strange conclusion to make - I’ll put it down to poor comprehension.

I’m confident at 14p you’d have confidently predicted little to no share price appreciation until committee report had put this issue to bed - yet here we are touching all time high share price.

At least in that regard your wariness is not shared by the wider market.

Just so you’re clear my take is that there is no realistic level of Nigerian interference that would make THXs fair value lower than it is now. That is why I call it low risk at this valuation.

I don’t think the big upside i’m after is guaranteed obviously but as far as AIM producers go I think THX at 20p is largely derisked.

Also worth pointing out local Osun state elections going on - what this ‘elephant’ is is some mouthy spokespeople who were way out of line and could well be voted out very soon.

It’s a non story and not something even factoring into the broker commentary anymore.

Nigeria will always make THX riskier than if it was say operating in Canada, that’s a fact, but it IS low risk whilst valued equal to one year’s cash generation at today’s gold price.

Even the likes of Resolute with much, much more serious governance and jurisdiction issues in Mali trade at a far higher multiple.

The elephant is more like a duck now. The state officials thought they could throw their weight around and scare THX into some under the table deal but the federal government stepped in. Now they’ve gone quiet and THX is operating as normal. I highly doubt there are actually many investors waiting for a committee report before buying, you’ve been saying that since it fell to 14p but a 50% rise suggests otherwise. It’s just the lack of liquidity as ever.

Much more important is the Douta PFS and the striking financials which will be released soon.

I suppose I just thought Thorn, with your incredible investing nous, that you’d be on the sidelines buying into the placing rather than sitting on what must be a 60%+ loss and acting pleased about the discounted raise.

Yeah I probably did. I bought lots at 50p and now some more at 40p. All would be a healthy return based on any possible lowball TO offer so… not sure your point.

Thorn, I do find it funny that when it comes to your picks falling 50%+ that’s absolutely nothing to worry about, it’s fine, it’s just the stock market doing its thing, it’ll correct.

Yet when it happens to Avacta…

You know there’s clear value on offer when the best attempts to challenge your investment thesis include the ‘fear’ of a TO 150% higher than the current share price.

£1 isn’t happening but in case a low ball offer is ever squeezed through around £2 I’m adding more at 40p - that’s a five times return on any buying today.

With a $2k net margin and up to 8 ounces sold per month we are now talking $15m cash generation per MONTH. Can’t be certain POG holds here medium term but $15m monthly cash injections for a debt free company still valued at not much more than $150m is obscene.

This sort of price action is common on AIM at the moment. People ignore a company like this even though they are aware of the fundamentals… until they get the feeling that others are no longer ignoring it, once that happens we get a stampede and it does 2X or even 3X almost overnight.

‘ 6 months after that we may get a clue’

________

You might be unable to read data but eminent scientists (think Virgilio Sacchini from Sloane Kettering) would describe the data we’ve already seen as more than a clue with P1b capable of more or less proving it.

Bigears - your opinion on her competence is subjective but what is palpably objectively false is implying she’s simply an Oncologist - she is very much a businesswoman with significant industry and managerial experience.