Member Info for HarChris

It was a very busy and very enjoyable week at Investing in African Mining Indaba 2025! It gave me an opportunity to reflect on Indabas past, particularly that of 2018 when we were participating in (and won) the Investment Battlefield competition hoping to catch the eye of investors willing to fund the Definitive Feasibility Study of the Segilola Gold Project.

 

The Segilola Gold Project has since been built and completed three full calendar years of gold production and having fully repaid its Senior Debt Facility to Africa Finance Corporation.

Our aim as a company is now to grow through the extension of the Segilola mine and through the development of the Company’s Douta Project in Senegal where we intend to leverage off the experience gained in Nigeria to build our second gold mine from a grass roots position. We have also expanded our activities into Cote D’Ivoire and are excited by the opportunity to grow through exploration in a new jurisdiction.

Overall, it was great to connect with more people, discuss bigger ideas and hear different perspectives to unlock Africa’s mining potential.

I had the privilege of speaking a couple of panels, where we tackled key challenges regarding policies across the African mining landscape.

Beyond the panels, I enjoyed that we were able to bring a diverse team from across all our operations to experience Indaba and Cape Town firsthand…. A lovely place to be at this time of the year!

We are all excited by what lies ahead for Thor Explorations in 2025!

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/segun-lawson-188ab62_thorexplorations-segilola-gold-activity-7294788078936686592-gHU_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAEF8FNAB_aQt-bxX7NfSTJJPvogLrACz15U

I’ve said my possible reasoning… to surprise to the upside.

A similar thing occurred in December when everyone on here was saying that there is evidently delays and then suddenly we received an update that showed RDE arms had been ongoing and p1a is in fact complete.

It doesn’t hurt to create a bit of doubt on AIM if you’re then able to follow it up with a bumper RNS revealing all.

She also said setting realistic and conservative timelines that are met (or words to that effect) is a priority.

So far there is no evidence of a missed deadline so let’s wait and see.

Well that 34k 'sell' @ 7.44p was actually my final buy.

Not expecting fireworks from this month's TU but what with abdx being fully funded all we need is to see clear progress and a near term path to group profitability and the rerate in 2025 is inevitable.

An even more recent slide deck clearly states P1 completion in q2 2025/June and we were never told to expect an rns just to state P1B had started so there’s every chance all is going to plan.

Would it help to remove this uncertainty? For sure, but if it comes with a more comprehensive this week or next that’s perfectly fine too.

Never hurts to get an rns that surprises to the upside.

No, there's a seismic difference between a mass sell off because the company is being swallowed up by its debt and jaded because of an expectation of timeline delays repeating ad infinitum. I sold HARL well before it went under, i'm adding continually in AVCT.

You yourself just pointed out that AVCT went to 185p because the market thought AVCT was close to finishing p1a and would be at p1b soon... we are there now but at 45p.

Yes some dilution along the way but not enough to warrant that disconnect considering all the progress and the move to prevent past mistakes being repeated via a new CEO.

I might turn out to be wrong but I think this is the best value Avacta's ever been.

For me the time to buy is when everyone has become jaded and is expecting the worst… that’s when we start seeing surprises to the upside.

Well you yourself are making an assumption that p1b hasn’t started. All we have is this from 16th Jan rns:

‘Patients are screening and the first patients to be treated in these expansions are expected imminently in the US’.

If the first patient was to then be dosed the next day would we have got another rns? I’m not so sure.

Personally I think we’re going to get a comprehensive update soon on P1B progress just as everyone is expecting ‘first patients dosed rns’ instead.

CC knows that missed timelines and promises was at the heart of AS’ removal and got her the chance to be ceo, I therefore doubt very much she’ll lazily just follow in the same fashion.

We are one surprise rns in the coming weeks from a major turn in sentiment, I think it’s coming but as always we place our bets and wait to find out.

I've always been in the camp that believed in $3000/oz gold by 2026 but what could turn out to be even more important is a multiyear bull cycle that sees gold at least average these levels for up to five years to come, ie 2030.

Douta's PFS base case will likely be around the $2300/oz mark but every chance we see POG elevated for years to come now with an average price of close to $3000/oz, say. That would produce billions in free cash flow over ten to twelve years and see a NPV not far off $1B... woth Segilola likely contributing $100m+ FCF per year alongside.

There is absolutely no doubt that the risk/reward is well on our side today at a mere 22p a share.

I think if you're sold on the science with your main concern being length of time the trial is taking then that's a good position to be in. We all know the reason P1 took so long, it wasn't predicted by any of us but the sensible among us would have admitted at the time that timelines for a trial that has yet to enter human studies is fraught with risks and has greater chance of seeing delays on a number of fronts.

The painful P1a is finally out of the way and now the majority of the reasons for such lengthiness will not apply going forward. We are almost certainly going to see P1B conclude in a fraction of the time with significantly more patients all targeted to maximise signs of efficacy.

So if the current depressed share price is largely due to the fear of the trial continuing at the pace it was at before than this is a golden opportunity to buy now before the market realises just what a different stage we're now at.

In my latest correspondence with Segun I got confirmation of:

(i) acquisition of their own drilling rigs which will be delivered in early March - cheaper option going forward

(ii) worked up drilling targets and will assign rigs in order to define a resource before H1 is out.

That's the aim on the lithium side of things. Lithium left off marketing documents of late to shine spotlight on gold but in 2025 lithium will be very much back on the agenda - a continued rise in the price will do us no harm.

Segun's response to me to such claims were that the gold price has enabled management to confidently focus on the business without the need to support the share price, ie the business hasn't 'required' a strong share price performance because future funding will not come via equity- that has allowed them to worry less about timelines and instead expand the Douta PFS and the drilling campaign at Segilola.

Perhaps it's an excuse but the important thing is that the Douta PFS is close and the mineral reserve update / mine life expansion programme at Segilola will come well before the current initial end of mine life, so delays on that front make no difference from a fundamental perspective. And with Douta the more detailed PFS will allow for a swifter move to DFS completion and then to FID and construction.

Progress has seemed slow on many fronts over the past year or so but we're at the point where it's now full speed ahead with absolutely no funding concerns to pause any progress.

I'd argue that fed government could announce a 20% windfall tax on THX profits and they'd still be wildly undervalued. THX would still be on track to make over 150% of its current mcap in net profit over 25/26.

So much risk is already priced in. Not all of it obviously, that's never the case, but a lot could go wrong and THX would still look mighty cheap at this valuation.

I stand by my view that whilst the improvement on the cashew front is important and paramount it still might not be enough to wriggle DKL out of the mounting debt pile they are sitting on - modest FCF vs €30m debt that is starting to mature.

They need the cashew facility at full pelt asap and generating €5m+ per year to turn the balance sheet around.

Some tried to suggest the lack of share price movement of late was a negative sign but I pointed out that resistance at 20p was extremely stubborn. It took some time but finally broke through and now we’re seeing buys just shy of the all time high, another price that may act as resistance this week.

Break through that and the sky’s the limit.

I remain convinced that the biggest factor for the valuation disconnect is simply the lack of PR around the company and the lack of flashy headlines up until this point culminating in a lack of liquidity. Even the ~$95m net profit in 2024 is yet to be announced and the cash figure hasn't yet advertised just how well THX is doing financially because the cash in 2024 was directed towards the repaying of debt, of interest, of reducing working capital deficit, of funding the PFS at Douta, of significant drilling in Nigeria etc.

It's this point forward that financial updates show massive step changes in cash position, from something like $20m EOY to an additional ~$35m qoq (i.e ~$160m end of 2025). Add in Douta PFS, a positive worded announcement from Federal Gov showing support and the inaugural dividend/buyback scheme and we have the ingredients for a rerate.

It's easier to be patient at 22p though than 15p so all is good imv.

Here’s the irony - the more negative posters on here didn’t even know about the Osun State dispute until me and a couple of others kept highlighting it as a risk, albeit that we think it’s low risk given all the info we have to hand publicly and from ceo comments privately.

It’s therefore ridiculous and false to act like we are burying our heads in the sand and only talking up positives.

No share is risk free but the enormous profits being generated weekly are considerably lowering said risk, and with it now the share price is finally rising alongside.

Look forward to getting an update soon then and we can start thinking about that 40/50p

We are entering a news rich period against the best gold backdrop any of us could ask for - it’s therefore hardly a surprise that the share price is steadily rising.

Here's a scenario to illustrate:

POG averages $2900/oz to mid 2026 and then the bull run comes to an abrupt end and POG slumps and averages $2100/oz over the coming years. Now compare THX with the company I mentioned in original post...

Does it affect both companies? Well yes, THX still suffers from vastly reduced profits but THX has gone on to make over $200m net profit in that period from a net cash starting position, Robex have only just started producing. THX is now a multijurisdictional producer with 150k oz per year output and developing further operations in Ivory Coast, Robex is profitable but the modest profits are instantly consumed by the debt repayments and interest and they cannot afford any further downturn in gold price.

Point is it's producers that are benefiting today from this sky high gold price, it's producers like THX with no corp tax to pay and no financing costs that are making hay. How a company like the above has a 50% higher valuation when they are so similar in scale and location yet pre production is hard to rationalise.