Member Info for HarChris

Let’s say about 7p today is the same as 14p back in 2021, that’s more the target we should be looking at if the rest of 2025 plays out as we hope.

I think we’d all be delighted with what.

Argo RNS - So massive cash burn to refurbish 23k machines over two months, 80% revenue decline for Jan and Feb which will recover to eventual new revenue figure about 40% below where it was before. We don’t the details of the hosting agreement at Merkle but as it’s not being shared and very much last resort stuff we can assume it’s not highly favourable.

So the company that was merely limping on as it was has now lost a leg and has severe spinal issues too. There is absolutely no business case here whatsoever, it’s merely a lifestyle company that will try one last time to raise and keep the lights on until these machines become totally knackered and/or the debt is called in in 2026.

That was certainly the reason for THX to be at 20p pre exploration and 24p in mid 2023 but actual reality has, in this rare case, far exceeded expectation.

Amazingly the DFS for Segilola projected $178m cash flow and $138m NPV over the five years. The market cap was the same as the projected NPV back before production started yet what we’re seeing is total cash flow at least double those projections and realistically at least treble.

I expect Douta’s PFS to show a NPV of over $500m… so according to Lassonde Curve we should expect a big rally to around that level before production actually begins - that’s about 60p a share and I’d take that.

I hear you re professional mining investors but I find it interesting just how high THX was valued at previous times - for example after announcing its Q1 financials in 2023 that showed profit of $4.3m for the quarter the mcap was at $150m and then ran up to the all time high of ~$190m in anticipation for the Q2 results. The PE all through 2023 was sky high and no one could ever have guessed that profit would multiple almost 10 times from there, which is where we are now at close to $40m per quarter.

I guess it shows the market is irrational but also investors (retail?) were buying in the hope of profits increasing and reserves increasing at a later date, the former has already happened (to a bigger degree than anyone would have predicted) and news on the latter is coming very soon.

Even if you think THX was overvalued in 2023 it's hard to argue it's not undervalued today, or at least that it should command multiples if the upcoming news is positive.

I think you're argument is very reasonable 'pickedpeck' but it does mean absolutely no value to the potential reserve increase which isn't realistic - THX are days away from releasing a PFS and the funds and expertise are in place to fast track the DFS and move to FID all this year with construction beginining next. There's also enough info out there to be confident of at at least a couple more years of additional ounces (~200k) at Segilola.

It's not like THX are a cash cow that is now having to work out what to do with it, there's been work going on for years with a ramp up in activity more recently now the balance sheet is so improved. I think it would be reasonable to see some of that reflected in the share price already and then much more when we have NPVs and hard metrics to use for modelling.

It's that combination that makes THX so cheap at not much more than 1 times earnings.

No one is arguing for a PE of 10 ($1.6B mcap), that's unlikely ever but they are arguing for a rerate in combination with Douta PFS and further progress towards that MLE at Segilola, that's what paves the way for $100m+ profit for a decade and more years to come. And news on both fronts are due this quarter.

A PE of say 3 on the current forward looking profits (~$150m per annum) is a reasonable expectation as it is and then potentially double that based on the extent of the increase in reserves and long term outlook.

There are plenty of gold miners operating solely in Africa that have PEs around 10. THX is now at a forward PE of close to 1,ie 10 times cheaper... so the question is at what point does the potential reward of such a high performing cash cow make the 'Africa risk' worth it? I think we're way past that point, especially as we have an experienced Nigeria board here with strong links to the federal government.

You can buy similar companies to THX that are operating outside of Africa for say $3B or you can go for THX at $180m.My choice is the latter.

The US markets selling off hard but gold sets another new record. Also new high weekly close for THX on the tsx.

Perfect timing as GRL ramps up production to a highly profitable level - looking forward to next monthly update.

It's also highly unlikely the share price would have ever gone much lower than the 1.8p placing price it stayed tagged to during the wait last year for confirmation of Zambian operations commencing - it was the surprise rejection of the Large Scale Mining Licence that did that and that's now been resolved. Add in the positive resolution re Mushinge and the injunction and this really does feel as good a time as any to be taking a position.

Mara going to go sub $15, that's the entry.

You say that but this management duo have come in and on two occasions in 2024 pulled off funding on AIM at a higher share price than when they joined the company just 18 months ago. That's not to be sniffed at when over 90% of AIM companies are down over the same period.

They do need to deliver on these plans but they've done a tremendous job in this environment getting to this position, no question.

As far as I can work out the likes of peggy and others have a personal issue with Nick, they don't like him and or/they don't rate his business prowess. At this stage though success or failure has little to do with him, he's closer to a passenger than a co pilot of Anglo. They are running the show and they are as strong a partner as it's possible to have in that role.

So sure you might have argued previously that Nick isn't the right CEO, you might have argued that it will actually take a while for Anglo to get going in Zambia but you cannot honestly argue that it's anything but full systems go now...

Those who bought and held in the build up and subsequent signing on JV in Nov 2023 have had to stomach paper losses but we are now entering what we're here for, a major discovery following a full season of drilling with I suspect $10m+ of investment from AA. Put aside your personal grudges and come join the party - you can either feel all smug for getting your timing just right!

It’s because of the Mining Indaba last week that so many of these news items have now become bunched up together. We were obviously not going to get major news whilst all the management were schmoozing in South Africa at the Indaba and this week was never overly likely for news.

Now with all that well behind them I suspect it’s been a case of the last finishing touches and sign off on news with some likely landing next week.

CLSK, whilst we’re here you’ve got to laugh at the fact Argo share price is now creeping up. That’s three times the Mcap of our recent investment, three times the valuation yet Argo has about 10 times the debt, has seen revenue fall ~70%, soon to run out of funds again and isn’t even reporting their operational results anymore. The other has seen revenue treble YoY, has reached a cash flow positive position and all being well can potentially self fund its way to $100m+ revenue (with the high grade 6g/t ore) at sky high margins.

Of course Argo is three times higher mcap because this is Argo and Argo refuses to die.

Too many typos sorry, I’ll repeat it:

The news flow is well signposted so it’s now that I’d expect positions to start being taken. Arguably there’s never been a better entry - you have long awaited catalysts all landing in the same period, you have gold at an all time high and an environment that likely supports $3000/oz for the medium term and you have the share price sitting at an historic resistance with blue sky above.

Feeling ever more optimistic about the next four weeks.

The news flow is well signposted so it’s not that I’d expect positions to start being taken. Arguably there’s never been a better entry - you have long awaited potential catalysts all landing in the same period, you have gold at an all time bunk and on environment that likely supports $3000/oz for the medium term and you have the price sitting on a historic resistance with no resistance above.

Feeling ever more optimistic about the next four weeks.

As long as POG remains so supportive all we need is steady/modest monthly increase in gold poured to give significant enough positive cash flow to fund the exploration programme and deliver those far superior grades.

Risk/reward is excellent here with legacy issues and recent CLN conversion offering up a golden opportunity, so to speak.

Whilst originally due Q4 2024 the ‘delay’ is due to expanding the PFS into the newly acquired adjacent tenement as well as ‘variability met testing across the entire strike length of the ore body’ , something that is now complete. Segun stated clearly that this PFS is as detailed as they come and has therefore done ‘much of the heavy lifting’ needed to complete the DFS.

In other words PFS lands in the coming weeks and the DFS swiftly follows and I would imagine sign off and FID all well before 2025 is out.

This time next year the construction of THXs flagship mine will likely have already begun.

It’s a short term target sure but also crucial, just look at the discount GRL had to accept to raise a measly amount of cash last August.

Ramp up towards 1000 oz per month in this gold environment and cash for working capital purposes is put to bed, opens up the expansion and the potential for a proper rerate, many multiples of the current valuation.