Member Info for HarChris

TS, the thing is people like him have nothing to lose by spouting such ostensibly definitive yet baseless statements. If the deal happens to fall through he will feel vindicated and up the ante even more on here, if the deal goes through he just disappears never to post again or comes back with a different username.

I'm starting to think there's actually a high chance of the Octo deal going through end of this month now. The antimony price rising ever higher improves the deal for Octo and already it was looking weighted in their favour (A$15m worth of tax losses for A$4.5m + Baileston).

I imagine the latest interest would potentially fetch a higher amount for ECR but given the time and complexity of such a deal management would choose just getting it over the line over fighting for the highest possible price - win/win for both ECR & Octo.

CLSK, take a look at this excellent twitter thread that explains why this initial 1k oz target I talk of barely scratches the surface of what’s possible here:

https://x.com/bigbitenow/status/1892593572051841229?s=46

Nice one CLSK, that’s more than I’ve been able to put in here. Obviously small cap/risky etc but barring some sudden bad news this does look very positive both from a trading perspective and longer term.

Simple thesis: ramp up successfully to 1k ounces at current gold price and you’re at $37m yearly revs vs ~$12m break even.

Already recorded over half that (monthly)production recently so cash generation will be happening even without further ramp up.

Drawn to the magnetic 40CAD one year high resistance over on the TSX, been there since yesterday afternoon’s trading - it will eventually break above with all the pressure that’s building.

Shareminter, you’re joking right?

Increased production over the past year from 200 oz per month to close to 600 oz per month and targeting (near term) 1000 oz per month. That could mean an increase in production of 5X with gold rising 50% in that time giving an increase in revenue of 10X, when previously they weren’t miles off profitability.

And the share price is down over almost all timeframes.

A P/E that low AND no debt is utterly unheard of. You will occasionally find small caps that suddenly have a forward PE similar to this (due to sudden commodity spike) but it might still take a number of years to reach a net cash position/reduce debt.

THX is generating net profit close to its mcap from a debt free standing start! (Forward PE more like 1.1 at current gold price).

You’ve invented a totally fictitious situation where this management team fails and yet somehow a new team quickly comes in and saves the day - well the odds of that happening is minuscule, failure from this team will lead to no other option but a placing that dilutes us to death and makes getting to 1p within the timeframe of the options unrealistic.

You’re trying so hard to find a negative in everything that you’re now starting to sound rather desperate.

Yes GG is correct: ' The Devonport Shares amount to, in aggregate, 147,692,308 new Ordinary Shares, equal to approximately 16 per cent. of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company following Admission.'

Issued just 16 trading days ago, amazing that they've managed to dump that many with the share price only falling ~15% (and recovering that today). There must be a TR1 amongst that buying.

Those options are well above any market price we've seen since the new management took over - considering the egregious way some companies handle options (set at a fraction of market price) they seem pretty reasonable to me.

They will reap the rewards if and only if they are successful.

Just a one line post said in jest. Nothing more than that.

Not every comment requires a ten line response!

Conservatively $1m per month breakeven, 500 x $2950 gives you ~$1.5m before taxes. Big cash generation at 500 ounces but get anywhere close to the 1000 ounces (and don’t forget that’s the target by the end of this quarter) and we’re talking profits easily exceeding market cap.

To think, they can now generate make more cash per month than they raised in August 2023 at a very steep discount. Transformational.

We’ve now gone four and a half weeks without a meaningful RNS and are due (confirmed) at least 4 RNS’ before March is out. That’s 4 big updates in five weeks ie almost one weekly on average.

Combine this with a gold price challenging $3000/oz and you get the best setup one could wish for for finally smashing the 23p resistance once and for all. It’s coming.

Do keep an eye on my tip clsk, rns out as I was expecting confirming the big seller with their CLN shares is completely out - share price on the move.

Nice rns!

They are there on the GRL bb (and ARB bb).

I've not discussed that company here.

The vast majority of funding is being directed at Blue Mountain, with other projects ticking along so that when the tax loss proceeds land they can go at it on all fronts.

If the MGA sale falls through I imagine other projects will be put on ice with focus turning entirely to BM.

Honest answer to your very basic question is that they ARE largely focusing on Blue Mountain, that is priority for those on the ground but in the meantime management will continue to pursue funding opportunities ie tax loss sale, Baileston sale etc - they may be funded for all their planned 2025 activities but throw in a $2m+ cash injection and those plans can become even more aggressive and with a nice buffer built in.

''But hey, who cares?''

______

Is that a little self-awareness creeping in?!

Here’s a scenario to emphasise my point.

Let’s imagine the MGA sale falls through but BM progresses as planned and by mid year production is in sight and share price has doubled to 0.5p. Does anyone really believe management wouldn’t be tempted to take advantage and raise additional cash as a conservative measure? Even if only a small discount it puts a ceiling on gains and likely see SP back around or below 0.4p.

Now imagine the MGA sale has gone through, BM is progressing as planned and is on the verge of production and share price has rallied… with no threat of any opportunistic raise the price has the freedom to rise up, up and away to who knows what.

Execution at Blue Mountain is of course the most important factor but in terms of realising the greatest value here it’s the combination with the tax loss sale that offers a blue sky upside.