RE: BTC Mempool25 Feb 2025 11:03
Saylor is one of the biggest risks to BTC long term, there will likely come a time when the market turns and maturity of debt is due to be called in - at that point even with just the knowledge that MSTR have to start selling to cover maturities will cause a massive BTC sell off and could well cause a downward momentum with no obvious floor. But that's a long way off still and not something to worry about in this cycle.
I have always been of the opinion that 'hype cycles' are never repeated, it's the unpredictability of them that fosters such magnified results, they are never signposted and hence I didn't think we'd see anything like 2021 again with bitcoin miners, but that isn't to say there wasn't money to be made (and there obviously was/is life changing possibilities with balls/luck in the memecoin game still). But yeah the combination of Bitcoin mining being totally flawed from an investment perspective and the hype having left makes it unlikely that you're ever going to say quickly 5 bag from one of the big NA miners again, whatever price you happen to buy them.
I think gold is at a very interesting point though. It's true that there's been absolutely no hype attached to miners even as new ATHs keep being hit but now we're at the point where fundamentals are turning these share prices into elasticbands that are being stretched and stretched and stretched with just something extra needed to see them snap - that could well be a US-led market collapse that has everyone scurrying out of large tech stocks and instead to safe haven stocks but in the meantime just a bit more attention could see many of them double and treble simply to catch up with fundamentals.
The likes of GRL could do many, many multiples as long as it navigates the short term well enough to enable itself to self fund going forward, the biggest risk is needing to raise funds on the AIM market.