Member Info for HarChris

Decided to dig into this a little further. Record net profit for THX came in Q2 of last year, where $53.8m revenue gave $27.5m profit. In an unprecedented move to give a bone to shareholders whilst we wait a while for next financials THX announced the unaudited revenue for Q4, that was $62m so looking at the margins a good estimate for net profit in Q4 is $34.5m.

Now look at this quarter compared to Q4. Firstly a significant chunk of the forward contract was bundled into q4 (we know this from interview), this brought the average selling price to $2497/oz. So far in Q1 the gold price has averaged a whopping $2830/oz. Assuming gold stays where it is for the rest of March (taking average q1 price to ~$2865) and then discounting the remaining hedged ounces, that gives an average selling price of about $2750/oz, a solid 10% improvement on Q4. I also know management planned to offload the remaining gold dore in inventory and then there's the lack of interest payments eating into profits this time around.

Is it possible we see $70m revs and just shy of $40m net profit for Q1? Very possible.

US markets selling off hard, bitcoin at 4 month lows... we're about to see an even bigger shift to safe haven assets. Timing could be just about perfect for Thor.

Here's the financial statement from that time: https://thorexpl.com/site/assets/files/2690/thx_2023_q2_fs_220823.pdf

THX was only marginally profitable back then, had current liabilities that eclipsed current assets by 2.5 times, gold price was sub $2000/oz, managing the following year's debt maturity without a raise was in doubt. Yet 24p was paid on 28th July 2023.

Fast forward today and ~$105m profit has been made between that time and end of 2024, added to that will be close to $40m in this current quarter alone, and who knows how long this enormous cash generation continues with gold above $2900/oz. We have Douta PFS landing any day now and certainly before March is out, the huge current liability deficit has been reversed (confirmed in next financials) and all secured debt eliminated.

In a functional market this sort of turnaround would have led to many multiples return but the markets are far from functional currently. We all know the adage 'the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' but in this rare case management have the option to be the buyer of the shares (buybacks) if the natural market mechanism doesn't do it and that's what they are planning and will announce soon.

The wait seems to be going on forever but from management's perspective there's no rush, they don't need a strong share price short term as there are no funding via equity needs so they've had the luxury to dot all the i's and cross all the t's ready to release a slew of momentum building rns'at a time of their choosing. Douta PFS has had technical upgrades in order to fast track the subsequent DFS and FID and drilling expanded at Segilola to areas previously seen as uneconomical (gold at $3000/oz brings much more tenement into focus vs gold at $1900/oz.)

Look across AIM and you'll see how the markets are operating currently - share prices stay depressed for yonks and then suddenly we see 100%, sometimes 200% rises quick as a flash. That's what's coming here with numerous news releases before this month is out. Just a little more patience and the mood will be totally different on here.

Chaebol I’m happy to share some of the communication I’ve had with THX management with you if you find me on twitter - it’s @Char101091

All these repetitive posts have had no effect on things here, if the market is doubting this deal actually goes through. Just under two weeks left of exclusivity, make or break in terms of survival.

In the meantime they continue to release no operational updates, that’s telling.

You keep saying this about not reaching profitability but we haven’t had the trading update/interim results yet, so you don’t know that… how about waiting max two weeks to share your irritation if what you’re saying is confirmed by management?

There will actually be stuff to discuss soon, for now it’s just conjecture.

I laughed at how bad an analogy that was - in THX’s case all that glitters is literally gold.

CEO just got back to my question asking if all the news expected in March will be delivered on time and it was essentially a ‘yes’ , we are getting a series of news releases in the coming weeks as previously noted.

It’s looking like three major announcements all before March is out ie three weeks today.

The key challenge is navigating the debt over the next few years, with much of it maturing at different stages throughout 2025 and 2026 - high risk but CPO prices are making it possible.

Navigate successfully and this will be back at 5p+ but fail and DKL goes under.

Obviously be good to see that but would be much happier to find a new home for the Heights shares - ie shares transferred to II and cash paid to Heights - that would be the biggest short term catalyst.

Nobody on here is shorting this stock, not right now with what’s about to be announced, trust me. This is just one childish guy with a grudge having fun ruining this BB with this spam.

Most of us aren't arguing that the P1a data that consisted of cohorts at vastly different doses, had patients who had numerous prior lines of therapy, had patients that were older than would usually be selected for such trials, had cancers that didn't respond to Dox etc etc is enough to win over BP, what we are arguing is that lasering in i.e taking the positive signs of efficacy considering all these factors gives us reason to be highly optimistic that this upcoming p1b trial, which is going to complete almost 10 times as quick as the p1a, will provide the data that be need for BP to move.

And that could come as soon as the summer.

'The SP (which is just a graphical representation of the demand to buy and sell the stock) has been in a 4 year down trend, which suggests the opposite to what you say or surmise.'

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Actually it mainly reflects that this is a traders market and traders are all waiting for a trend reversal before chasing this up and so it's somewhat a self fulfilling prophesy until an entity takes the plunge and pioneers the trend change.

This is a bear market, when Avacta rose to £1.50 off early p1a cohort data that wasn't a graphical representation that the 'market' had decided Avct would be a success, it was a point in time that represented the broader market more than anything.

It takes a hell of a lot to turn things around in bear times like this and it takes very little to rise in a bull market, you're using the challenging (to say the least) backdrop to cast doubt on the operational progress made by Avacta. As well as the frustrating overhand of a quarterly dumping of shares by Heights.

I'm sure I could go right back on your posting history Wyn and find plenty of times when you've agreed about highly promising data and how it looks like AVA6000 will ultimately be successful IF they can get to that stage, and then you'd go on to name all the companies that failed to ever reach such stage. And say that the biggest risk is funding not data.

Now you're admitting that if p1b data is stellar then it's a slam dunk but now suddenly less convinced of the data.

I think you're moving the benchmark to suit your own narrative.

I mean that's your opinion dressed up as definitive fact - next week a partnership deal could land for TNBC or any of the indications and the share price could fly. None us will know til it happens but we're certainly at the stage where a deal could now realistically land at any point, especially if compelling data is seen behind the scenes under an NDA.

Events used to be very clearly signposted with Avacta but from this point forward there's far more scope for positive left field news.

'Ah... at last the magic word.... IF

Well yeah, Duh....'

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The thing is your whole schtick for ages has been that the amazing results to date aren't really relevant because near term funding is all that matters. Now we're at the stage we've been waiting for ages, the stage where the data finally takes centre stage and so you switch your primary narrative to 'but is it really that good?'

Of course it's an IF but investing is all about weighing up risk and reward and there are many reasons why we should expect results to range somewhere from great to stunning, so yes it's an IF but most would agree the odds are well with us.

I'd hope Q2 but it's not what matters most, what matters most is that the production levels remain high enough to be building up a strong cash position in the meantime.

I know it's silly but occasionally it's fun to respond seriously to some of these childish posts. Bring on 7p and the mother of all buybacks!

7p gives a market cap of about $50m. THX are now generating around $13m cash per month and ended the year with ~$20m cash, so my the end of this month should have cash of $60m.

Imagine how many shares management could buy back with more cash in hand than the market cap 😁

Yes awareness campaigns are important but other than that surely it’s just a matter of time? As long as the self tests are accurate and easy to use eventually they will reach the consciousness of the mainstream.