Member Info for HarChris

Shareminator, take Q2 for example. $27.5m net profit only led to $5m increase in cash because $11.1m cash was used to repay loans and borrowing and $8m to reduce accounts payable. Management have informed me that accounts payable has reached the level they were aiming for (working capital surplus) and so doesn't need to be reduced further. So in this case $27.5m net profit would now lead to a $5m + $8m + $11.1 cash increase which is almost equal to the net profit (still small amounts of gold stream liability to be paid each quarter so perhaps add $1m on).

As for my Q1 predictions that's because I know they've been selling down most of the inventory (gold dore, priced at cost on balance sheet) which will add significant $ms to revs this quarter. I don't know production levels obviously so my $70m revs prediction is still a bit of a shot in the dark but I do do think $65m-$75m is a good estimate.

Yeah that’s fair enough, I have reasons to believe the revenue will be what I said but taking a conservative view is sensible. It’s helpful to bat these figures back and forth though but again I will say that net profit and cash increase going forward will be much closer to each other than your 50% to 66% conversion expectations, almost all the net profit will be crystallising into cash… well until will then go back and subtract buybacks/dividend but obviously can’t attach numbers to that yet!

As for your last bit, let’s make it clear that that’s just for the results timetable, there’s plenty of (potentially) share price moving news due THIS month!

They aren’t going to be executed til at least 3p for tranche 1 and probably 4p for the final tranche - that’s a long way from where the share price is now.

All time high 1st of April, more likely 30p+ is my prediction and I'm highly confident of it. I don't care about daily share price commentary but this gold price push is only going to help when news lands very soon.

Hermanus, I've shared loads of info recently re news flow, just go back through my posts. I can't keep repeating it.

'That’s the point. They haven’t hit targets and the SP is behaving accordingly.'

No your point was that it is informative as to current AISC, which it isn't.

Yeah I wouldn't expect an RNS to say that the options have now vested unless they are actually exercised and even if that is the case it only tells you that the AISC hasn't been sub $1500/oz for three consecutive months, perhaps it's around that now but was just a tad higher in Dec/Jan?

Wouldn't expect $1500/oz or lower just yet anyway, if it's a bit higher than that but comes down to ~$1500/oz as production closes in on 1000 ounces per month that'll give huge profit still at a gold price close to $3000/oz.

Completely agree with first part but why only $15m-$20m additional cash after Q1? The cash was previously been absorbed by the debt repayments, interest and accounts payable largely but that’s negated now… the sustaining capex is already excluded to get the profit.

Also with such a small hedge in Q1 compared to Q4 and mgmt aiming to sell more of their stockpile in Q1 (not in an RNS but no secret) we are looking at more like:

Revenue $70m

EBITDA: $48m

Net profit $38m

Net cash: $50m-$55m

Let’s come back to this post in May but I think this will be close to actual figures.

It's got to be a bot surely? No human is that robotic, repetitive and dull, surely?!

As for this financing deal we will have to hear from management soon as to whether it's going through or not... or will they just completely bury another critical bit of bad news?

Great post BBN, really highlights the improvements being seen in recent times from this management team* and shows how unjust it is to price in such a high chance of failure here.

On the other point I wouldn't ever expect an AISC in a monthly operational update, it's not possible to work that out exactly each month - a guideline/range of what AISC we should expect once 1000 oz is hit would be very helpful to hear though.

Great post BBN, really highlights the improvements being managament.

On the other point I wouldn't ever expect an AISC in a monthly operational update, it's not possible to work that out exactly each month - a guideline/range of what AISC we should expect once 1000 oz is hit would be very helpful to hear though.

We are talking $29m revs from 1000/oz per month and then many, many multiples on that from a '£4-£5m' investment to reach the higher grades. So we are talking such big ROCE if (in dollars) $5m-$6m can boost revenues by $120m+ per year - no wonder BBN highlights the takeover risk, a cash-rich junior operating in West Africa (and there are many) would surely be willing to stump up many times GRL's current valuation for such a project.

Yes there is other growth to be had such as adding another dry plant but just the simply analysis above shows how undervalued GRL is at £10m mcap in this gold environment.

This is something I've previously emphasised too.

If we go back to Thor's IPO on AIM in June 2021 there was jurisdictional risk (Nigeria), there was technical risk (Thor was still an explorer and was still building Segilola mine) and there was financial and debt risk (large loan with AFC to fund Segilola). Add to that Segilola was the first ever large scale mine in the country, something that clearly adds to risk. Guess what price the IPO was at??? 21p!

Risk has fallen MASSIVELY (There's that word ;)) since the ipo. Debt risk is totally eliminated and financial risk is essentially eliminated too (i showed recently how much THX would still make if POG retraced all the way to $2000/oz). Technical risk has also decreased having shown their competence in successfully sticking to mine plan at Segilola and now with much of the same team, expertise and machinery in place to transfer over to Senegal.

It's a raging buy today.

Spot on, you zeroed in on the ‘issue’ better than I did - lazy investors look at the change in cash position first and foremost and that barely moved over the first three quarters of 2024 as you just stated. End of year will show a jump even with the last of the senior loan, interest and accounts payable reduction but it’s Q1 onwards which goes from a jump to a giant leap.

It’s no exaggeration to say cash can now rise $35m a quarter and it’s for that reason that buybacks are looking to be instituted even sooner, there’s just no need to be cautious now.

I think it’s worth noting that whilst some say ‘we know how much THX are making yet it goes down’ it’s not really true, at least it’s not widely known and it’s definitely not often believed. I’ve been directing a number of people Thor’s way recently and they find it hard to believe that THX could be making the profit I’m claiming, they think I must be over egging it, close to $40m per quarter is Nasdaq levels they say (I’ve seen $20B companies on the Nasdaq making less than Thor).

There’s a lot of company making news beforehand but April’s full year results (PE 1.8) will put THX on many investor’s radar and then Q1 financials the following month (forward PE 1.1) will see that interest accelerate.

Exactly. The fundamentals are insane but we are now entering the richest news period in THXs history. The share price hasn’t broken out to new all time highs because of the news dearth, no meaningful RNS for eight weeks but now we are due three in three weeks and seven before Q2 is out. That’s a totally different landscape.

Will be a much more enjoyable place on here soon.

Well it’s valued at about the cash at bank as of June 30th 2024.

This is a very challenging market and GRL have debts still to service this year therefore it might not be half as easy to just go get a new £5m bank loan like you're suggesting.

Hit group profitability in the coming months however, eliminate the current debt on the books and all of a sudden talks with banks should be a lot more forthcoming - I'd prefer to see it happen much sooner than two years but her message was one step at a time... i'm sure if progress is made and POG remains so supportive those plans will be brought well forward.

Operating in Nigeria has been nothing but great for THX so far. Thor are seen as the poster boy for Nigeria encouraging non-oil foreign investment into the country and have used a number of incentive schemes to do it.

The risks of operating in such a country have not borne out. In the first year mining THX generated $38m net profit, then $11m in 2023, in 2024 annual report will show $90m-$95m net profit and due to the gold price rallying so (and no corp tax due) THX can now go on to make as much as $150 per year this year and in 2026.

Management are very happy in Nigeria and that’s why they continue to work on the mine life extension at Segilola and are towards the maiden lithium resource.

I also asked if lithium was still a part of the business model and the answer was a resounding yes. Largely left off recent updates to keep the focus on gold but drilling has resumed and aiming for a maiden resource end of Q2/ mid year, we should expect more info in the full year results.

Again nothing that’ll move the market for now so management comfortable with sharing that.

It’s a busy three months like I’ve been saying!