Member Info for HarChris

That all sounds about right except next Segilola drill results are targeted for Q1 (confident they’ll be with us latest early April). Those who have reached out to management have also been informed that buybacks / dividend is very much on the agenda, near term, ideally this quarter.

Obviously no exact date has been given but seeing as dividends/buybacks were mentioned in two interviews (not one) management don’t seem to mind sharing more info on that to anyone that reaches out.

So yeah I’m with your timelines except saying Segilola drill results late March/early April and dividend/buybacks announcement imminent.

Yeah sorry I muddled things up again too. On the subject of the DFS though Segun pointed out recently that the PFS includes variability met testing across the entire strike length of the ore body which means that a lot of the heavy lifting for the subsequent DFS is already complete and so they will be able to move on the next stage at lightning speed - and as they will be in such a strong financial position and have a very supportive partner in the Africa Finance Corporation the Final Investment Decision shouldn't be too far behind that. So it really is a case of full steam ahead with construction at Douta possibly already started by this time next year. That won't be the same for all other juniors scrambling to raise financing in what is such a challenging market.

Actually no, the point is that the gold price is acting as such a support that even at current production levels we should be seeing modest cash generation with every incremental increase boosting that further. We don’t have to, at this market cap, bet on Emma fully delivering, we just have to see gradual progress to be more than comfortable entering at this price.

So it’s a case of massive upside if this management team take full advantage of the set up they have here and solid upside if they just continue to make modest progress. These are odds I like.

You mean PFS rather MRE at Douta and yes I’ve had confirmation it will definitely be released this month. As will further drilling results that get us closer to that MRE update at Segilola and new mine life plan which will be with us in H2.

You’re right about this being the quiet period, there is never any financial update between November and April but we’re finally close to that now, one month away from the annual report and tons of important news due before then.

With at least 7 RNS’ arriving in the coming three months and many of them in the coming three weeks and supported by such a strong gold price this is the time to be taking a position, if you haven’t already.

I like Emma’s personality even if she does seem a bit juiced on adderall! There’s a very feasible path to building this minnow into a rather large junior miner, a path that would require considerable equity funding/dilution if not so well supported by the gold market - but seeing as it is (and assuming it continues for some time) the chance is there to grow enormous from internal cash generation alone.

Massive disconnect that won’t last long if future updates match Emma’s bullish sentiment in that talk.

As BBN pointed out on twitter 1000 oz dore at 82% recovery @ $2900/oz gold gives yearly revenues of close to $29m.

I've been using $1m per month as a fair estimate for break even price but even if it was a tad higher than that there is a clear $15m yearly profit to be seen once that 1000 oz target is hit - that's enormous cash generation that paves the way for the CIL and reaching those 6g/t grades.

One step at a time but the potential here is massive whilst it's supported by such a strong gold backdrop.

I did say this back at the end of last year, that it was unfortunate that we had entered a slow period when it comes to financials - they are usually two months after a quarter finishes but the final quarter gets rolled into full year results and is released in April).

I pointed this out to management and they said they would add extra detail in the end of year operational update, which they did, at least in terms of announcing (record) quarterly revenue. From that figure it’s easy to extrapolate the net profit more or less and see that Q4 last year well exceeded the previous quarterly record of $27.5m net profit.

Now gold prices have gone even higher and the forward contract is so minimal there’s reason to think the Q1 profit will be record breaking again, but of course the quarter isn’t quite over… but it will again turn heads when released in May.

So we couldn’t ask for a better run of scheduled news. This month running into April we’ll have an announcement re buybacks/dividend, the Douta PFS, further Segilola drill results and hopefully an update from federal government (not in management’s control). Then April we get full year results ($90m-$95m profit won’t look bad!) and then Q1 operational update same month followed by Q1 financials in May. Finishing the quarter we should be getting a maiden lithium reserve and could well already have the Douta DFS completed by then.

Agree with you, I guess my point was the only short-medium risk is that of another discounted cash raise, something that can be put to bed with declaration of strong monthly numbers and cash generation. The higher the gold price the more margin for error GRL has to reach that point so things are looking promising here. But I'd like confirmation and so does the market.

As for the chat with Emma I contacted smallcappix but still not reply, I'm guessing it'll just suddenly appear on their site this week.

Yes April 1st 2025, I think we’ll have three RNS’ by then and possibly a sea change in sentiment towards gold miners as US market uncertainty sends investors rushing for gold exposure.

Again, I’ll hold my hands up as calling this totally wrong if THX isn’t at least at an all time high on that date, in just three weeks time, although I’m hoping for break out in that time and above 30p.

Some of that is true. The P1a HAS taken longer because the lack of side effects at ever increasing doses took everyone by surprise, I don't think that's debateable. Avacta HAS made tremendous strides forward and if it wasn't for the weakness in the market as a whole (no i'm not calling it corruption) Avacta wouldn't be anywhere near this valuation, if it wasn't a market that turned completely risk off and therefore suddenly severely punished any small cap needing to raise they would have easily raised double what they did last year at more than double the price (just look at the difference in placing discounts and share prices a few years back), and being cashed up right through to approval would have given the share price room to run and run.

And even given the above without AS' huge misstep to attempt to build diagnostics alongside Tx the share price would still be far higher today without this continual drag every quarter and need to offload Dx at whatever cost. And there were missteps (perhaps bad luck with deal falling through) that led to the disastrous placing at 50p instead of £1+

All of the above should help you in ''trying to understand why if the results are spectacular and better than was ever forecast the SP has fallen?''

My original post was to show that in a sense the gold price isn’t all that critical now for the fundamentals, it’s already done the job of wiping out debt, reversing working capital deficit and building a mountain of cash ($55m end of March?) and will continue to whether gold is $2000/oz and therefore bringing in $20m per quarter additional cash or $3000/oz and adding $40m per quarter. Of course the latter is better but either makes this a clear buy.

What we are missing is the sentiment shift and for that the gold price is important but even more important is a wider market rotation into gold miners (tide does appear to be turning) and most importantly eye catching news (buybacks, Douta PFS, MLE).

It’ll happen it’s just a question of when.

I have made one major prediction and one prediction only, that the share price will be WAY higher on the first day of April. I absolutely stand by that, no immediate term predictions before all this news lands though, I don’t trade.

Genuinely, come back here on April fools day and ridicule me if you’re right and acknowledge this post if I’m right.

no, i’d still argue that waiting for the interims to critique (now they are so close) the supposed lack of progress since the placing is sensible, as we don’t actually know what progress has truly been made til we get the interim report.

you might be rightly ****ed off in a few weeks or you might be eating your words.

^^^ and that’s taking lower bounds for production forecast and upper for AISC. Realistically cash generation is going to totally dwarf the current valuation over just 2025 and 26.

We're all wondering if gold is suddenly going to catch alight and break $3000/oz yet we forget that even if gold fell all the way back to $2000/oz from here (v unlikely) THX would go on to post $100m net profit this year and ~$80m next year ie more than the mcap over 2025 and 2026. If it falls back to $2500/oz they go on to generate $135m this year and $105m next year.

And as it stands close to $40m per quarter... there is so much margin for error here.

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My comment had absolutely nothing to do with yours, it’s totally unrelated. You actually started attacking me many hours again and they were all ignored. I started a different thread three or four hours later. Seriously, get over yourself, I’m not interested in you whatsoever.

You have been baiting me non stop and yet I refuse to attack you back - I’m sure everyone sensible can see who is the provoker and disturber here.

Charts can be useful in the absence of news, less so when you're about to enter such a rich news period.

Risks remain here until cash generation and profit is announced but my word do they have an opportunity now to finally deliver with such a gold backdrop supporting them.

As for talk with Emma I've emailed smallcappix now so will share with you the date and time when they reply - i'd guess we'll get the monthly update first, either tomorrow or Wednesday.