Member Info for HarChris

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come join the fun!

No you have it the wrong way round, they are actually macaques which are monkeys, not apes. They are nicknamed Barbary Apes due to their lack of long tail (more typical of ape) but they are in fact monkeys. There are only five types of ape (other than human) in existence - chimpanzees, orangutans, bonobos, gorillas and gibbons.

Sorry to those not interested, back to HEX!

Conversation? Three weeks ago. A short reassuring message? Last week.

Find me on twitter and DM if you wanted, it’s @CHar101091

How this is still £20m mcap is beyond me - they must be either out of funds or right on the edge now… barring a miracle the next news is either a winding down of operations or a doubling of share count at 1/1.5p a share.

This is bursting to break out. Vindication for those of us relentlessly on here sharing the investment case.

News lands this week and all bets are off.

HL, Hargreaves Landsdowne. Testing the current sell price by executing a sell quote, but not actually selling.

In other words the sell price for a large quantity is rising.

Hear, hear. Another example of solid, steady progress, this is unequivocally good news and was well needed in what has been a news dearth.

Also good to have a date for the interims… as long as progress is seen all will be confident we’re on to a winner here.

Term sheet cancelled, not a surprise but a shame for those that got their hopes up for a recovery here.

Here’s what Segun said to me (not verbatim) a month ago - ‘we are expanding our drilling campaign at Segilola, we will be going underground and we have also purchased our own machinery and drilling rigs as we push ahead with our first lithium maiden resource by the end of Q2, would we be investing so much more in Nigeria if we didn’t consider it a hospitable place to operate?’

But yeah they will also be multi jurisdictional in two years time, Senegal, and they are very excited about the prospects in Ivory Coast - the plan is to develop assets right across West Africa.

We’ve had six months of people relentlessly pointing out the jurisdiction risk all the while nothing coming of it and the share price creeping up to ATH. I can only repeat what I’ve been told by management, that they have had numerous meetings with the federal government ministers and they were all positive with no action to be taken against Thor. Mgmt want the public support but won’t push any harder than they have already and from their POV obviously no action being taken is the most important thing.

If no update beforehand we will get commentary in the final results essentially saying that the matter is closed internally. Meanwhile THX continues to generate more than $3m net profit every single week against a total tax liability of $62k.

No recent missed timelines - a number of updates due this quarter and all supposedly on target to be achieved on time.

PAF is a good company and was part of my DD recently. My conclusion was that whilst it’s sensible to spread risk, I can’t see how PAF justifies an mcap of ~7 times THX when THX makes half of the net profit and is winning on many metrics, such as being debt free and net cash positive. PAF has a lot of interesting projects though and should now be able to degear rapidly so I’m sure it’ll also be a big winner in this climate.

Good foresight moving early on defence stocks.

As for Argo… well, is it any surprise the exclusivity agreement is up and we have no RNS updating us on what’s happening?

We will get at least one RNS this week, I’m certain of that.

Hopefully today but if not RNS’ are coming, at least three in three weeks.

Those in the Nigerian government that matter* ie Ministers in the department for Solid Minerals Development.

The poster in question would say Thor was way overvalued if it was making $1B a year ‘coz it iz in Nigeria’ - you can’t argue with stupid.

For me, given the executives are actually established Nigerian businessmen that appear to have a positive working relationship with those in rhetoric Nigerian government that matter is argue THX is way, way less risky at 1 x price vs a gold miner Ex Africa valued at 10 x price.

Come back at 50p a share and we can have a more meaningful discussion re risk.

The full year results next month will show the net asset value now ~$200m. You then add to that $40m net profit per quarter, gold being equal, and conclude that there's no world where THX's price is spot on at a PE of just 1 and a NAV higher than current valuation.

Thor is valued lower, relatively, than miners in Mali that have recently had executives held to ransom and only released after paying out hundreds of millions... and those companies still command higher PEs!

As of Jan 1st, there's ~245k ounces left to be mined, tax holiday will encompass majority of that then final year costs will fall due to a large percentage being processed via the stockpile. So even if we conservatively use a $1700/oz net margin we get $416m. If this was the entirety of the business there would still be reason to buy in at 23p, as $416m is equivalent to 49p a share. So if THX just saw out the last of this mine life, collecting it all the generated cash and then redistributed it to shareholders, assuming $20m mine shutdown costs vs $20m net cash position as of end year, shareholders would each receive 49p each worth of returns, more than 100% returns. If the margin is close to $2k it's close to 60p.

Of course we know they aren't going to do that, there's going to be minimum 2 years/ 150k additional ounces added to mine life at Segilola ($195m cash at just $1300/oz net margin?) and hopefully much more with management talking up 5-10 years additional life following the underground development.

And there's Douta, a far bigger mine than Segilola (albeit lower grade) that should be capable of generating many $Bs in revenue through its lifetime. Of which we'll find out very soon, from the PFS this month.

There's no world where THX isn't a raging buy right now at 23p.

That’s just the operational update, the financial results will be end of May.

I’m with you on thinking upper end guidance could well be achieved though. 98k ounces were produced in Thor’s first year of operating and last year’s 85k was largely due to the fly rock incident, delays in mining high grade areas of the out and extreme rainfall. Measures are in place to reduce the chance of such incidences happening again/mitigating the effect of heavy rainfall in future (obviously somewhat uncontrollable).

Reason to believe the upper end is achievable but even the highly conservative lower end can produce net profit equivalent to current market cap.

Yeah some of the gold miner valuations are hard to get one’s head around. The one me and Chaebol are in currently has all in costs below $1000/oz and no corporation tax, so the net margin is $2000/oz, no hedge, no debt, large cash pile, huge NAV position, a second mine soon to be built and still trades at a forward PE of 1. And yet until not too long ago it was almost the same mcap as Argo. I mean, make it make sense!

Haha good pun. Glad you’re in in one of them, gives me another person to discuss things with.

Curiosity will have me discussing Argo too for a while. End of exclusivity Monday yet what are the chancers there’s an RNS? It appears there’s a new policy at Argo that only good news is material and must be released to the market. Bad news? Nah no one needs to see that!