Member Info for HarChris

You seem to have contradicted yourself there. You initially imply that anything Trump does can't be corrupt because he was voted in by the US people, 'it's called democracy' but then go on to imply that the UK labour party are corrupt, yet they also were voted in.

Well I don't know the history of the poster in question but let me assure you i'm not here to cause trouble, just using the discussion board for a bit of debate but will take my research elsewhere til i'm a bit more brushed up on the facts here. All the best and will likely be back at some point if invested!

Greyw, of course everyone has their own risk tolerance but I built a genuine case for why the issues were overblown and yet many refused to engage. It included the fact that the Osun State officials shouted their mouths off in late September for a good few weeks, even after the federal government slapped them down publicly, and then they went utterly silent and remain silent for almost five months up to today. That tells me the story for them has moved on. Secondly THX management are evidently cosy with federal officials and ministers that matter, we have seen them together at many events. Most of Thor’s directors being experience Nigerian businesspeople certainly helps our cause. Then there’s the awards and recognition THX has received for their environmental and social work in the region which contradicts the claims initially made by Osun State …and finally there’s the simple fact that management told me directly that they have held numerous meetings with federal officials and are as sure as they can be that they have their full support and no action would be taken.

I’d say all that and then those deramper types would say ‘well no one knows what way this will go’ - argh!!!

Computer, you're being entirely inconsistent. I understand why, you're defensive of posters seeming negative but in my case it's really not that, I'm just looking for some debate to help me make a decision on whether to invest here, I'm happy to have pushback (as I don't know much!) but in your case it's contradictory.

I clearly wondered, like LegalWolf, whether DFC would fund the project is a large/vast/majority of the (initial) graphite was going China's way. I didn't wonder if the Jilin offtake would preclude further DFC support, I don't think that's the case, but possibly if more offtakes to China were agreed. So your 'because china could be involved in OC at some level' summary of what's being said is misleading, at least on my part, because I think it's fine if China is involved in some level, just not the main bulk of parternships.

There's more uncertainty around the funding than there was before now Trump is in office, I don't think that's all that debateable. And it's possibly the reason for further share price weakness despite genuine positive progress being seen here.

There are people that repeatedly stated on here, from 14p, that it wasn’t worth the risk holding before there was a clear and public resolution with the Osun State matter. Their risk averse approach has cost them an 80% rise in share price.

Of course they are going to be niggled.

'More dilution coming and one has to wonder will it ever see the company through to monetisation?'

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What is the path to monetisation? Basically survive long enough to catch a bitcoin bull run that outpaces difficulty just enough to see Argo briefly cash generative? That's the only hope and even then it's a race against time as the rigs start to become even less efficient (they're at least half way through their useful life already).

I think it was my post that stated that management told me, as of three or four weeks ago, that all news due for this quarter is on target to be met. I repeat that claim here, it’s true.

Also that we have had no news for nine weeks and now have 7 or 8 meaningful RNS’ that will land within nine weeks ie end of May. So we got to all time high in the longest silent period thanks to the booming gold price, now we have all the news to land to take it to the next level. Perfect.

TLet me guess, you and your five other aliases reported some post of mine (I don't remember which) and managed to get it removed? LSE admins clearly don't actually look at the content of reported posts, they just remove them if enough people report. So if you achieved that well done for your perseverance, I guess!

I hear you but the other poster questioned my comment saying that they won't fund it if the vast majority of graphite is headed to China. I think that's a reasonable view given that it explicitly states on the DFC website that it's remit includes countering China's influence around the world' - graphite is a critical mineral that could be used as a weapon in a trade war, why would you fund a project if it increases China's grip on a critical mineral? I can't see that you would?

'That's not true'

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Please could you explain further why the DFC, the US government's financial vehicle to advance US foreign policy and strengthen national security, would fund Orom Cross if the vast majority of the graphite produced goes to China and Asia?

On their website it literally says: 'DFC partners with allies and the private sector on transformative investments that build infrastructure, strengthen global supply chains and expand access to energy, technology, food, and financial services, while countering China's influence around the world'

You raise some interesting points LW, politics is going to play a big part here. What is obvious is that the DFC isn't going to fund Orom Cross if most or all of the material produced goes elsewhere other than the US, why would they? The offtake with Jilin is for 15000T of large flake per annum. Total tonnage initially will be ~50000T so that is just under a third of that but in terms of value it is approximately 50%. The offtake rns goes on to say this: 'Blencowe is currently in advanced negotiations with multiple leading OEMs in China and South Korea regarding the sale of its remaining large flake products and smaller flake products utilised in batteries. These discussions have been positive and the Company anticipates delivering further MOUs with leading buyers of graphite products worldwide with the aim of securing offtake partners for the entire production output from Orom-Cross.'

This totally contradicts an RNS from January 2024 - 'Blencowe Resources Plc (LSE: BRES) is pleased to announce it has received a formal Letter of Interest ("LOI") from the US International Development Finance Corporation ("DFC") in which the DFC has indicated its willingness to participate in debt funding for the Orom-Cross graphite project ("Orom-Cross or the "Project") in Uganda, subject to all necessary due diligence.'

Recently we got the RNS regarding AFCs expressed interest .It included this: 'AFC's interest represents a major step forward in securing project financing, complementing the existing $5 million Technical Assistance Grant (TAG) provided by the US International Development Finance Corporation ("DFC") in 2023. DFC remains supportive of Blencowe and retains the first right to provide cornerstone debt funding for Orom-Cross.'

For this reason the Apollo off-take is a big deal. I wonder if this is essential for keeping the DFC onside? The recent RNS included this line: 'Following a successful marketing tour of the USA, this MOU is the first of several that we anticipate bringing to market near term. It builds on our initial agreement with Jilin, announced in 2024, to supply up to 15,000tpa large flake concentrate."

I would think most of the deals signed from now on will need to be US-based if the DFC are going to commit to funding/part funding Orom-Cross. And I imagine the AFC has been lined up as an alternative (with deals then signed with those Asian partners).

Thanks for that detail.

And yeah I agree, I don’t think irrational exuberance would be enough for Argo, the cat is out the bag, investors are savvier now and will be more selective with their stock picks.

Not to say they wouldn’t be able to pull off another placing given an intense rally in bitcoin, I’m not saying that but I am saying they will not pull off enough equity funding to actually do any more than pay off a bit more debt and stay on life support. There would be a trading opportunity for those nimble enough to get in and out though.

They need £50m+ over the coming 12 months to have any chance of some sort of turnaround. It’s not realistic given any bitcoin scenario.

Twice BMN has been mentioned today. BMN ran into trouble after Fortune Mojapelo took on enormous debt (partly via CLN) and achieved zero growth with the proceeds. That left BMN in mid 2023 with over $100m of debt and $100m net debt position.

IES is debt free and at last count has nearly £50m net cash. Sure that will be lower now but the two companies are polar opposites because one (IES) has pulled off hundreds of £ms in equity funding over the past three years whereas the other attempted to grow via debt and so creditors came a knocking.

There’s no similarity.

Warren Buffet’s advice does NOT translate to AIM or small caps, not whatsoever. His advice works with large companies because they always survive downturns in one piece if they are solid businesses and therefore a fall in share price is usually a buying opportunity with a long enough time horizon… but small caps during downturns - potentially excellent companies - frequently go under due to a failure to access funding and debt (even very modest amounts) swallowing them up, or just being taken over for a fraction of potential value.

However BRES is a standout with its OC project, the progress already made, support from NGOs/governments and lack of debt. So I think they’ll navigate the next tricky period successful enough and end up a big winner… but it’s by no means a guarantee.

Three of them bought £60k worth between them @15p a few months back, so it's not exactly true to say they aren't buying share: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IES/directorpdmr-shareholding-pe6ple8chvlj7ew.html

I doubt there are many closed periods for IES now, what with the sorts of deals they'll be currently working to close, deals of the size that will be certainly be deemed 'material'.

We know it’s coming, and soon, so in a sense it doesn’t matter when but it is becoming a bit tedious isn’t it!

Imagine if we get a federal government update dropped in too, you know, to really light a spark…

Most likely it means that they are out of cash so had to give a discount for these 2000 machines as emergency liquidity to keep the lights on.

This is the longest drawn out death I’ve ever seen on the stock market.

Well it's interesting in as much as it now gives us an actual estimated value of the 23000 miners that were being hosted at Helios - $6.3m. Was that about what you thought, CLSK?

I still don't get how this is a strategy though... Argo were consistency loss making throughout its time at Helios and were surviving placing by placing and all that's happening now is an attempt to get back to close to the operational level they were at before after even more cost from refurbishing these machines. For what? To kill time until the debt matures next year?

Well it depends on your time horizon - you can currently buy at 3.35p and you're talking about an equity raise at either 3p or 4p so today's price is attractive. Agree though that there isn't a rush and those on the sidelines are unlikely to suddenly be priced out, though it's possible.

Had a quick look back at placings and see that £635k was raised in May 2023 @ 5p, with warrants attached (1 per 2 shares) exercisable at 8p and expire May 2026. Then the best raise came in Feb 2024, just shy of £2.9m @ 5p with no warrants attached. And finally Nov 2024 with £1.5m raised @4p with warrants attached, exercisable at 6p and again three year duration + a retail raise of £118k.

So yeah 3.35p does look a good entry but boy has this DFS process taken time. Back in September 2022 it commenced with an initial completion date of H2 2023!

Hear hear! We talk incessantly about net profit which is of course eye catching but the actual cash flowing into the business this year will be enormous. There’s a ~$2100/oz NET margin right now, that’s higher than the spot price for almost the entire history of gold. As net margin!

Cash coming in could be as much as $2100 x 90, ie $190m if this gold price were to hold. And that’s after Segilola sustaining costs so all that’s going out is ~$10m group exploration spending and perhaps $5m for the gold stream liability.

We could be looking at an increase in cash of something like $175m… that sounds inconceivable but it’s true. No wonder buybacks and dividends are on the cards.