Member Info for HarChris

The 56m share option package should be enough of an incentive to play it straight and deliver.

The amount of corruption charges directed at the Nigerian government over the past six months or so has been outrageous. The number of people saying ‘do you really think the government is going to let Thor make millions without the state coming for it with windfall taxes? Etc ‘

Can we for once acknowledge an African nation with an administration that is bucking the stereotype here and doing an incredible job of making Nigeria look attractive for foreign investment? It’s really quite something the concessions Thor are currently benefiting from… we’re talking more than $100m of tax relief over the five year tax holiday.

Exactly willz, currently there's at least a $2k net margin on ounces produced at Segilola, the vast majority of that cash will stay in the business so all things being equal about $160m each year for 2025 and 2026 (plus ~$20m at start of year) which pays for Douta in totality even assuming much higher costs due to the potential BIOX / refractory ore issues pacifico talked of recently. And Segilola would still have ounces from original mine life in 2027 too before we talk MLE.

There are still some unknowns with Douta and Segilola mine life extension that will likely keep somewhat of a lid on the share price but there should be more than enough value in what's already known to mean this rise hasn't come close to peaking yet.

I see $1m costs per month used as a guide for break even figure but when you dig a bit deeper you see that it allows for a hefty margin for error and cash could now be being produced from as low as about $800k per month. And by my workings revenue is looking like ~$2.6m for the period up to March 24th.

Now at $3000/oz even marginal improvements in production in Q2 will deliver healthy cash flow but get close to 1000 ounces and we're talking annual net profits higher than today's valuation and self funded growth to a vastly bigger operation.

If that’s right (rather than record monthly pour) then progress is happening at a slightly lower pace than we’d all like but the gold price alongside ensures GRL are well funded throughout this transition to the new pit and ramp up to 1000 ounces… and likely profitable even at this level - in the grand scheme of things a few hundred ounces here or there will be immaterial if the next main objective is achieved in the coming months.

My previous post was to stir up some debate, I'm trying to see if anyone can make some sense out of the deal. Kinda sums up this bb to claim 'I think too much' - the opposite can be said for many Argo holders.

Not really Badboxer, I have long argued that there is absolutely no investment case and Argo will eventually fail when the 2026 loan is called in, if not before. I've never waivered on that. And the share price has slid from 35p when I first started questioning to 3p today.

As for this deal you seem to have a short memory. At the start of the month there was a different deal on the table with a 20 day exclusivity agreement and people were saying the same thing to me. That fell through and now this one has a new exclusivity agreement, not sure why the certainty it gets approved?

I argued that it wasn’t the news we were waiting on and the market had already largely priced in a positive result for Thor. That appears to be the case but I still feel it’ll help the brakes come off when further news lands/ play its part in steady further share price appreciation.

GEM mining is rather odd. So back in late 2021 all 32000 s19 pro's had been bought with 8000 installed and mining bitcoin. Rapidly over a number of months the number installed went from 8000 to 18500 with news being released in line with public limited companies. Then, as of July 2022, all news ceased. In that last press release it was stated that 19500 machines were online with the 12500 to be installed by the end of the year.

It seems like the company just stopped operating after this. Note in today's RNS it states 'GEM owns 2.4 exahash (EH) of mining machines' - I'm pretty sure they never got to the full 32000 machines being deployed and I have a suspicion that currently none are operating, hence the lack of updates from July 2022. That's also true of their social media accounts too.

This leaves many questions left unanswered. What's happening with the ~1.8EH/s of online machines from July 2022, are they switched off (assume), are they still at Core Scientific's hosting facility? Are Argo definitely able to tap into the previous hosting agreement? What went wrong for GEM in 2022, simply run out of cash and decided to mothball until another company came knocking today?

All in all this looks pretty desperate to me. Argo is paying $21.7m to acquire 32000 s19 Pro's, most (all?) of which are second hand. Just last week Argo sold 2,000 S19J Pro miners for $550,000, the price they are now paying for these rigs is more than what they just sold 2000 for! Nearly three times as much! Although to be fair it's roughly 55% up front in shares and then 45% have contingencies attached.

We know Argo are cash strapped so the actual financing they are receiving is $10m. That keeps them ticking along but for how long? It seems GEM realised back in 2022 that they couldn't operate successfully so I can't see how Argo stepping in with the same deal and hosting arrangement will make any difference?

All very strange. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

I only use Grok occasionally but wouldn’t copy and paste what it gives me, exactly (well apart from below!), I’d use it to give me info I’m wanting without a ton of research but it’s best to double check properly and rewrite to more human legible form before posting.

Personally I switch off when I start reading something that is obviously AI written - it sounds like you do too.

Yes, more people are using AI, and its adoption is growing rapidly. Recent data suggests that AI usage has become increasingly common across various demographics and industries. For instance, surveys from 2024 indicate that about one-third of Americans used AI in a given week, with tools like ChatGPT and Gemini being particularly popular. This reflects a significant uptick in adoption compared to earlier years. Additionally, posts on X and various studies highlight that people are becoming more comfortable admitting to using AI, with usage spanning everyday tools like virtual assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa) to workplace applications, where 25% of people reportedly use generative AI for at least an hour a day. Globally, the number of AI tool users is projected to rise sharply, with estimates suggesting an increase of over 400 million users between 2024 and 2030. While penetration varies—some regions and age groups show lower weekly usage—the overall trend is clear: AI is becoming a ubiquitous part of daily life and work, outpacing historical technology adoption rates.

;)

'Chris, what are your reasons for thinking that P1b will be completed on time? "Lessons have been learned from P1a" is not an answer.'

___________

This time timescales are in within management's hands to a far great extent. We aren't relying on a data safety committee to sign off between each cohort, this doesn't require the safety checks that a first in-human trial requires, we aren't testing various dosage and frequency regimens, we have a very strong advisory board in place now as well as participating hospitals, we have Tempus collaboration in place to support speed up of recruitment, we have strong safety data in hand to encourage patients to take part etc etc

So in other words during p1a you knew that it was going to take longer than many were expecting, or at least had legitimate reasons to think so (increasing cohorts, unlikely to find MTD etc).

So what are the reasons, in real time, that you think will prevent P1b completing as scheduled? And therefore make it impossible to tie P1b data to funding/partnerships?

‘Because it always does’ is not an answer.

Be careful with that praise, I’ll start being accused of being a multi account user congratulating myself! It was my cross ramp on the Argo bb that brought you here, a bit naughty on my part!

But yeah I think there was a very logical and rational argument to be had for why the share price was well, well disconnected from reality here. And with this derisking news out the way I’d like to think the move north has considerable legs still. Atb.

This is not a market that rewards slow and steady progress which is what we're seeing here at best. Like you Muck I didn't think there was enough evidence of growth getting back on track and for ABDX to be standing on their own two feet from 2026 onwards without the need for further financing (EBITDA breakeven in 2026 is disappointing, consider broker targets are often missed anyway) so I thinned my position and will just sit on what's left long term.

Thank you as ever for being the voice of reason on here and for all your efforts.

Plan is something like: (i) continue ramp up towards 1000/oz delivering cash along the way (ii) meet end of year debt liabilities (significant cash flows once 1000 ounces or close is reached) and renegotiating any remaining debt, (iii) adding another dry plant pushing production above 1000 ounces (1500?) (iv) building cash position, possibly alongside a new loan to fast track growth, and invest in new ~$4.5m CIL plant (v) production increased multiples once 6g/t (maybe 8g/t?) ore is mined.

In this sort of gold environment we'd be looking at 10p+ if that all played out with multiples of current share price as steps are ticked off along the way (2.5p now is fair value imv). And plenty of leeway in between to see marked growth in the business even if there are further hurdles/stumbling blocks along the way.

It's rare to find small caps capable of self funding their way to 10 baggers with the tailwinds already in place.

The market is telling us nothing about forthcoming news because the 'market' isn't very pre-emptive currently, it's risk averse. Traders think that even if commercial news lands they'll still get a good enough entry to make a handsome profit so they sit out in this environment until that sort of news lands.

Once more and more recognise the market backdrop it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy and only the best of news sees any reaction, with everything else a gradual sell off. It is what it is but in the meantime AVCT is progressing and nearing key milestones that we have long been waiting for.

The fundamentals win out... eventually.

Where does Argo’s $40m debt factor into your value calculations? If they fail to turn a profit over the coming eighteen months (most likely) then they need to raise another $40m just to avoid administration… and by that time all the machines will need replacing.

This deal if it goes through keeps Argo alive a bit longer but there’s no credible turnaround path medium term.

I really appreciate the kind comments. BBN and others have a far superior knowledge of mining than I do but I try my best to distill it into a simple enough investment case.

As for today’s news it’s extremely timely given the delays and minor uncertainty currently surrounding Douta. We can now focus first and foremost on what Segilola and Nigeria is going to generate for Thor… with the knowledge that there’s a straight shooting federal government who aren’t suddenly looking to renege on the generous incentive schemes THX are currently benefiting enormously from.

~36p accounts for current mine life, ~10p per additional year of mine life at Segilola (depending on POG 2027 and beyond) so a conservative target could look like 55p from Segilola alone and then we add in Douta in H2.

Making inroads in that disconnect but a long way to go still.

I’m still not sure what the point is you’re making Wyn? Is it that Avacta isn’t fully funded for years to come? Well, duh, we all know that. Your sole focus is on value at any given time yet you then go on to say this: ‘Lets assume there is a data rich period that supports the SP. If it does result in a deal of some sort then a RI will still occur but hopefully the SP will be higher causing less dilution.’

Well yes, that’s what we’re saying. Funding via equity isn’t the scary thing you try to make it out to be if it’s being aligned with unequivocal progress. So perhaps you’re seeing after all that the share price at such lows in what is such a data rich period offers us some pretty excellent risk/return value right now.

We’ve all talked up the importance previously (especially you) of finally shaking off p1a and getting to the point where efficacy can be seen starkly via p1b data - we’re almost there now and yet the share price is stuck in the doldrums. Your instinct is to take your cue from the share price alone but others can see the glaring disconnect from the above and that’s where the opportunity lies.

AVCT has been a rollercoaster over the past few years and I think this will be one of the times we look back and see we should have been loading up with this run in ahead of us rather than getting freaked out by the 5 year low.