Member Info for HarChris

What delay? All we know is:

12th December - RDE Arm of 1a complete and enrollment open for 1b

16th Jan - Screening patients across three indications in 1b and first patients to be treated imminently

7th March - Confirmed initiated enrollment in 1b with multiple patients treated, as part of a broader AVA6000 update.

First dose was some time between 16th Jan and 7th March, there's been no change in timelines so unsure of the delay you and others keep highlighting?

You know damn well that P1a was a long, frustratingly drawn out exercise to primarily test safety at ever increasing doses. Only a handful of those patients were relevant for testing efficacy and were in no way specifically selected like they are now following the p1a and with Tempus. So from a handful of patients over all those years that had been heavily pre-treated to many dozen specifically target to respond to Fap-Dox in a very short space of time is a major difference.

'There'll be 'prelimonary' 1b data at the end of 2025.'

Not sure who's spelling mistake you're attempting to ridicule here but it's not true anyway. Those looking to partner TNBC, SGC or STS will be seeing the data well before the end of 2025. And there's data from RDE that we've not yet seen which will add meat to the early p1a bones.

If the early data being seen is compelling enough a deal could easily be struck by mid year.

McMuff, there was a very clear moment that caused/cemented this downtrend and it was when CC made it clear that there would be no major data releases near term, til further into 2025 and there were no partnerships or deals in the works. I think the comments were made in late September, maybe early October, and from there sentiment or the narrative has not changed.

We are however a good six months down the road and so the comments that cemented this downward trend aren't so relevant now... sure sentiment won't turn til some news suddenly catches the market off guard but we're entering the time when that could happen any day and for that reason I think the sell off has now overshot to the downside. And it won't take much to turn on a dime.

‘What issue? Its free money. THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT PI's’

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Well she has 3600000 options so she has the chance to make £millions here if successful. Plus I really don’t think she wants to have to deal with the growing resentment if she can avoid it.

Pay cash this month and focus on finding a few IIs / HNW individuals for a small bridging subscription, say $15m, for further cash payment option / slightly further cash runway. If no partnership deal is close that is.

In other words that has to be a limit where they seriously consider paying in cash this time - what if the share price sinks further, they issue 11m shares? I think they’d have to go cash route to avoid such a fallout pre AGM and would then hopefully focus more of their efforts on solving this issue.

We have been told that the two main factors in deciding whether to go cash or shares is the stage of diagnostics sale process and the amount of dilution - there is therefore a limit where they will have to seriously consider going cash and that might just be this potential 9m+ shares.

The market knows nothing, if it gets a whiff that CC won’t dilute us in such circumstances traders will be immediately back in and once again we’ll say the ‘market has spoken’.

Got to be cash this month alongside a proper plan to cover the rest of the Heights payments, or at least 12 months worth.

Cash payment takes us through a pivotal period with new RDE data at a minimum and possibly p1b prelim data - can’t be doling out 9m shares before such a period and I doubt they’d want to face shareholders at the AGM with the share price at ~30p and all the negativity that would come with it.

Yeah I think cash on the 22nd this year - that would be an Easter present for us.

I’m one of the most optimistic on here but most of the big 1m trades today look like sells, looks like some heavy dumping hence the fall from a buy price over 1p in morning to 0.925p by the end of the day.

Interesting article shared on the Hive telegram group today https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250331-why-helium-shortages-are-worrying-the-world

' This isn’t a no, as a ‘no’ could easily have been said. Keeping options open, and in my view they will always go for a placing over debt.'

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I think Bo was just being honest. They are funded but things can and do go wrong, teething issues happen when entering production which would require an equity raise if that were to happen. Equally if all goes to plan and the share price rallies considerably to a far more acceptable level, say 30p, I wouldn't blame management for undertaking an opportunistic raise to fast track growth. If the share price has barely budge despite reaching production and cash flow then I'm sure debt financing would look a lot more attractive if growth funding is needed.

‘BP have waited and waited and what have they lost?’

Nothing as of today but if one comes in soon and acquires Avacta for a few quid a share and they go on to take a big chunk of the chemo/cancer market in the following decade the rest of BP might feel a bit silly for waiting a bit longer to save another £10m.

In other words it’s a stupid point. One might argue that BP considered Avacta too expensive a few years when valued multiples of what they are today with almost no in-human data but there comes a point, a sweet spot you might say, where BP thinks it’s better to move now rather than wait for further derisking.

I think it’s close and therefore worth the risk to add more at 34p, others like you think the opposite and so are selling down here - I guess that’s what makes a market and we’ll know who’s right, with hindsight, in six months or so.

I know I know I'm repeating myself but it's still amazing to think those catching the top in 2023 paid as much as 24p with THX only making about $3m per quarter, nowhere near enough to meet the debt schedule that was looming in 2024 and with gold at $1900/oz that profit could easily have been wiped out with a modest retrace.

Since THX has gone on to generate about $145m net profit (end of 2023 + 2024 + Q1 estimate) and are now generating record cash flow (15X compared with 2023 SP high) and you can get these shares for 25p.

I don’t think CLSK cares about past comparisons, it’s not really relevant to him and his ~1p average. Especially as the massive decline in SP despite finally looking like a corner can be turned is the very reason he (and I) are here.

I think your post just proves that GRL has the potential to get back to a similar valuation to CMCL despite being 1/18th of the market cap today. Any closing of the gap will make it a better investment today than the latter.

We’re now talking $2m MONTHLY cash flows if they hit this 1000 ounce target with gold price where it is, a figure no one could have dreamed of nine or so months ago.

All we need is successful transition to new pit which is going on now with those higher grades coming through and a summer of elevated gold prices and GRL becomes a significantly derisked business that’ll quickly be net cash positive.

Debt financing will then be back on the table to expand well beyond 1000 ounces per month.

We’re still in a very news rich period and likely will be seeing frequent updates right through to end of q3, especially compared to the news dearth leading up to late March. Tons of financial news from now to late May, Segilola drill results imminent + new rigs and increased drilling will mean more updates there quickly following, Douta West drill results will be fairly regular all leading up to PFS, announcement on divi/buyback and we’ll get an update from both Ivory Coast and lithium project within 3 or so months.

Well it wouldn’t be based on ‘just prelim data’, it would be based on significant amounts of P1a data including the dose escalation data + prelim p1b so for me the answer is very likely yes, if* the data is compelling enough.

Much more chance of a deal before cash runs out than you’re trying to present here.

Wyn firstly you don't know when the first dose was, we just know it was some time between 16th Jan and early March. Many think patients were being dose in early Feb so that could be as much as seven to eight weeks ago.

Secondly, why do you think it takes so long to gather preliminary data? We will soon get data from the dose escalation cohort that were dosed back end of 2024...

I believe you're wrong on that - mid p1b prelim readout expected more like early Q3.

They are going to have a lot of data in their hands very soon.

I'd consider the jurisdiction risk as low as we could ever hope for considering THX is operating in Nigeria. Of course it hasn't evaporated entirely, that's not possible in such a part of the world, but the excessive discount relative to other perceived less risky jurisdictions can no longer be justified.