Member Info for HarChris

Well the market backdrop looks very tenuous and fragile right now…Personally think being in cash and gold are the best two options.

Possibly get a monthly update at some point next week, could be our turning point.

‘ Aren’t there LSE rules how much you can raise in one year? Shishir mentioned he wanted to at the end of 2023 but was blocked’

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No there aren’t limits but I think he was referring to limits that they could raise without shareholder approval and /or without a prospectus.

From what I remember the smaller raises were cheaper and much quicker to get away. But that was also Shishir’s downfall, always looking for shortcuts and cheaper options - it might work for small company but not for a major international graphite business.

That’s a fair response Saluc, sorry for that accusation.

I never doubted Shishir’s commitment or desire to succeed throughout his tenure either, I just didn’t believe he had anywhere near the ability he himself believed he had and that lack of self awareness also meant he wasn’t going to step down and pass on the baton without a fight. Not because he didn’t care but because he likely truly believed he was the only man for the job right to the death. I’m sure he thought all the directors leaving was a ‘their’ problem not a Shishir problem etc but to most of us the common denominator was evidently Shishir.

And that inevitably meant by the time he was ousted it was going to be impossible not to see some permanent damage caused, hence the survival-funding on unpleasant terms we’re seeing now.

Cannaccord increased target price to 35p from 30p.

I believe this is for current life of mine at Segilola alone… will see 5-10p added per additional year in Nigeria and who knows what for Douta.

By year end I can imagine that broker target being 60p.

Honestly, you must have a close connection to defend the man after the utter failure here.

Shishir did try and minimise dilution but thanks to him the company is forced to do what they are doing now just to survive. I'd bet a lot of money the CLN holders wouldn't have taken shares this time around if Shishir hadn't exited and therefore TGR would be in administration now. Back when I was in communication with him he was determined to prevent dilution so much so that he turned down the chance to raise more at a much higher price and chose not to raise in mid 2023 with the share price just shy of 40p. He did this because he had such belief in his ability to navigate the situation on a shoestring budget but ultimately failed and then was forced into a raise at 11p. Why did he stop paying himself a wage? Because the mismanagement was so extreme that there was no money to pay himself, there was no money to pay any of the executives and most of the staff were owed money by the time he left.

After overseeing such a decline he went and issued himself £300k worth of shares at 11p as his 2024 wage, that's right, an amount that would be worth £1m if he could merely get the share price back to where it was and could have raised at six months before.

And his parting gift to himself was another 7.6m shares at 5p.

‘All cash offer’ - well of course, it’s essentially free at current price as the cash on the books covers the current market cap.

Pete you might be new here but the rest of us have discussed this a lot. Not only are most of the cash outflows no longer applicable (accounts payable and debt reductions + interest) but we’re also going to see net profit much higher this year, as more ounces to be sold (additional inventory sell down) at a much higher price (+ forward contract last year pushed sales price lower).

So this is the year cash position balloons, even with the large dividend payments… hence why management are open to increasing the divi.

Yeah. They have a strong relationship with the AFC having already funded the Segilola project and being paid back every penny on time - will certainly see the next lot of debt financing on much better terms.

'“Our dividend policy demonstrates our dedication to returning part of our strong cash flow generation to shareholders without forgoing our ability to self-fund our growth,” he said.'

Just shows what's coming - able to redistribute close to £20m a year to shareholders without affecting their ability to self-fund growth.

'“Our dividend policy demonstrates our dedication to returning part of our strong cash flow generation to shareholders without forgoing our ability to self-fund our growth,” he said.'

Just shows what's coming - able to redistribute close to £20m a year to shareholders without affecting their ability to self-fund growth.

I'm not going to pluck a number out of thin air but 1000 ounces with gold price at $3k significantly derisks GRL and throws the doors to far greater growth wide open so I would expect a sharp and meaningful reaction.

That’s probably about right but the debt isn’t all that high so debt could be easily eliminated within a few quarters if the 1000 ounces is achieved in the coming months.

Not only a 11% dividend but also stating that it might well be increased...

The net margin is truly staggering.

Yeah they’ve had a forward contract in place through most of 2024, which was locked in well below spot.

Only a few ounces left of it as of 1st Jan and will be over now (unless they’ve taken out a new one at a much higher gold price).

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/THX/fy-2024-results-and-maiden-dividend-0cejd7uegncvsnu.html

Looks very good at first read through. Sub 85k ounces of gold sold @ US$2,288/oz gave us $91.1m - now realise just how much will be made this year at ~90k ounces @ $3k + significant inventory to be sold down this year.

Cash slightly lighter than my prediction due to enormous reduction in accounts payable in Q4, it's now that the step change happens with $30m+ cash increase per quarter minus dividend payment.

If I've got it right dividend payment is ~2.8p per year (divided up into quarters) for next two years 'with the ability to increase the dividend amount based on the Group's cash reserves at the end of each quarter.' - that's pretty hefty.

Cost control excellent and the outlook means news will come thick and fast across all four project streams throughout the rest of this year.

That's a joke, right? How about the cash they've received from AA? How about the extremely positive early signs of copper mineralisation and grades in Zambia? Sure it's early but over the next two years AA are going to be sinking $20m into the ground in our licence area in search for a major discovery - you think Arc would see a better return trying to raise that sort of money themselves and going it alone?!

The JV is make or break for this company with share price rerating news possible in this next drilling campaign that's just about to kick off.

‘ If u cant even mine it yet and get it out the ground’

(i) at Blue Mountain it’s barely even in the ground because it’s alluvial gold and (ii) they are actually rather close to production.

The gold price is therefore very relevant.

All part of the attempts by the Nigeria government to encourage non oil sector foreign direct investment. Thor were granted a five year tax holiday following official start of production in early 2022 so takes them through to early 2027 (possibly concludes end of 2026). Either way they haven't paid any corporation tax to date and won't have to while they generate supernormal profits this year and next.

'Pioneer companies investing in specified industrial activities may, on application, be granted a tax holiday for three years initially, which may be extended for up to two years upon satisfaction of specified conditions. '

We've had it confirmed that Thor were granted two additional years and the benefits continue beyond the five years in terms of capital expenditure relief.

One final thing... gold thrives during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and what we have now is uncertainty for years to come, no matter what comes next. The normal world order has been upended and the most powerful man in the world has a team around him selected for by loyalty and obsequiousness rather than merit. The market will continue to expect the unexpected, major policy made on a whim . So it's not even about tariffs, it doesn't make a difference if he rolls back on them etc the fact is he has unleashed uncertainty on the world like we haven't seen for a long while and that ensures gold will remain well supported as a safe haven asset for a long while to come.

Previously I wasn't confident that gold would remain quite so elevated but i'm ever increasingly so now.