Member Info for HarChris

It’s a really good point. Surely now US businesses that were negotiating lithium BESS deals with China will stall those negotiations? That difference in upfront price was the last remaining thing clearly in lithium’s favour over Invinity’s vrfbs but if even that difference is shrunk then the market for IES in the states has just magnified in size.

‘ HarChris you're in correct. Any material investment would have to be RNSd’

Are you sure about that? I’ve seen at least two different examples where that wasn’t the case… they were announced in trading updates / interims months down the line.

And in CEL AIs case they’d gambled all the remaining cash left on Solana yet even that wasn’t declared at the time.

We're a few weeks away from getting the annual report for 2024 which will show net profit in the range of $90m to $95m.

With the price of fuel falling we should be confident that AISC remains well below $1000/oz so even if we were to see gold only stay at this elevated level til end of June and then for H2 average, say, $2400/oz, net profit for 2025 would be around $150m. So we can be pretty certain that net profit for 2024 + 2025 far exceeds the current market valuation.

Essentially everything else is free. The huge tax free profits to be made in Nigeria in 2026 and into 2027. Any additional ounces, whether that be the lower estimate of 150k or many times that. The project at Douta that is close to an advanced PFS that will quickly move to DFS.

All of that for free with a geopolitical backdrop that favours gold over every other asset class out there...

Yeah RiR, that sounds right. Plus I assume the additional placing upon lifting suspension is still on the cards.

If I understand the change of terms for the 2022 conversion notes it's not that they are being converted at 10p, it's that the conversion price of 45p is being reduced to 10p with the maturity date being July 2026. It therefore gives the CLN holders, in July 2026, the option of converting (if share price is well above 10p) or it will need to be renegotiated down again like the 2019 CLNs have been (twice) or paid in cash. It's a positive move step though.

I don't think it's overly auspicious that they've already pulled one target, the 600T per month by end of April, just one month after setting it but I suppose it's something we see regularly. It leaves me that tiny bit less doubtful that they achieve by July target of 1000T per month now but we'll find that out in due course.

They're still alive and that's the main thing.

Wyn, you spent so long banging on about how it doesn't matter how good the technology is, if funding becomes a problem it'll be all that matters and now because you've shifted your narrative to 'but is it actually all that groundbreaking' / 'is it actually better than Dox?' your'e trying to equate the share price to it being Avacta and its technology specifically.

Previously you've answered your own question.. Personally I think we're in a real tug of war right now between the market and the relative nearness of groundbreaking data. The market is winning as of today, helped by broader market chaos, but it's not won yet and we won't know which comes out on top until later in 2025.

Full year results, q1 operational update, further Segilola drill results , divi/buyback should all come out in April (first two 100%).

Why the rush for news? Should feel pretty relaxed being in a cash-rich gold miner right now.

It won’t, the share price will recover somewhat if paid in cash va shares at this level, the latter currently being priced in considerably. It doesn’t matter anyway if it amplifies any placing concerns as long as they go ahead and pull off a long awaited deal to some sorts. It’ll mean, all in all, no heavy dilution at such a depressed level.

I think we’re all very much starting to agree with that.

CC thought the market was going to react to the pipeline reveal but it didn’t even pay it a second’s notice… I’m hoping this finally focuses minds on share price management from here on out as it’s the biggest risk here now by a big margin.

Remember they stated the decision to pay Heights in cash or shares will be dictated by level of dilution and stage of diagnostics disposal - well the level of dilution is getting to ‘off the charts’ territory so we’ll find out soon if they really meant that statement.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/amended-terms-and-operational-update-bz3zo624nebunnr.html

Not the best of news but equally not all that unexpected. With CLN conversion price reduced further to 3.75p that’s 33% more shares to be issued than originally though, plus the 1:1 warrants and some additional warrants (although priced much higher). Also the convertible notes being paid with shares at 3.75p.

This just sets the price coming out of suspension that much lower although I guess that’s the cost of the risk these financiers are taking on at this point.

A mixed bag when it comes to the operational update.

What a strange claim, that Dr Tap isn’t discussing STS with all his oncology colleagues unless of course you are one yourself and wondering why Bill hasn’t come to you?

Perhaps he’s just a highly professional man who has learnt the consequences of pushing a drug through too early, before it’s proven?

I’m sure he’s got the patience to wait another few months for plenty of unequivocal data to show through in these first line patients before sharing his excitement and optimism publicly.

I doubt that without positive RNS but sure as hell would prefer to be in gold than almost anything else right now.

Unless I've missed something you can't say that with certainty... they won't announce investments immediately. I remember last year when Cel Ai announced, months after the fact, that they had invested heavily in Solana and had seen huge appreciation.

So it's possible TIR have been investing in memecoins over the past month or so with heavy losses.

And it's also truly staggering that Invinity is fully funded to achieve such a feat, having taken 10-15 years and raised £130m on the public markets plus tens of millions in grant funding without a penny of debt and yet investors are able to buy a share of the business today at a valuation of barely £35m.

I sold out after last year's teething issues and interim results shock, it had me questioning whether Invinity was actually going to be one of the winners in this space but Jonathon has done a tremendous job of steering the ship back on course and the future is looking more certain than ever. Will personally try to keep adding until the market finally takes notice.

It’s worth noting that in a week of turmoil for commodities antimony edged higher once again, with a new ATH, the only metal to continue breaking records as seen here: https://x.com/minerdeck/status/1908849436333109250?s=46

And I'm reminded of this: 'Addressing a Global Need for Large Scale LDES

We’re introducing ENDURIUM at a pivotal moment for the global energy sector. Last week at the COP29 Summit in Azerbaijan, delegates ratified the Global Green Energy Storage Pledge which aims to increase global energy storage capacity sixfold from 2022 levels. This target means the world will need 1,500 GW of storage connected by 2030–aligning with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recommendations to meet the emissions-reduction goals set at COP28.

Achieving this goal will require adding over 158 GW of energy storage annually through 2030; '

Let's say 158GW of energy storage equates to something like 450GWh... Invinity therefore needs to capture just 0.22% of global demand to be building and selling 1GWh of batteries per year, an amount that would make them phenomenally profitable. And considering their global footprint and first mover advantage when it comes to non lithium BESS it's really not too ambitious to expect them to capture that small amount of the enlarged market.

CLSK, Chae etc ... you still throwing money at US btc miners? How do you see that sector playing out in coming weeks?

All I said was I didn't for a second believe that you really want to see this succeed, I don't think that view is that far out there. I mean, does anyone think for a second if Avacta knocks it out the park you're going to be feeling delighted? Is it not fairly obvious that you become super emboldened when the share price falls or when there's a less than stellar RNS?

Nothing wrong with a different POV. I've never ever tried to shut you down, I've never previously got personal although I did bulk at that ^^^ particular comment as I think it's nonsense. But just my opinion as you expressed yours of mine... As I've said previously we'll find out soon who's right re Avacta. I'm open to the idea that I'll be ultimately wrong and don't for a second think success is absolutely nailed on, especially in an ever weakening market but I still believe this will soon become about the fundamentals and data as we reach the point we've long been waiting for (1b results). As for your own predictions anyone out of the small cap market is doing well, anyone that moved to cash a year or so ago and resisted jumping back in is doing relatively well, for that reason it's hard to see what you count as 'good calls' / 'good judgement' when it comes to this investment as anything other than a knock on effect of a collapse in AIM investments across the board. If the market had continued as it was in 2022 Avacta's share price would have held up just fine with each update, they'd have raised a ton of cash much higher and we'd all be feeling quite content. But that's the risk of small caps and we should all be well aware of that if we're to dabble in such stocks.

It's just a rather odd thing to be so dedicated in warning people on here about the risk of Avacta, giving up a lot of your time for such an endeavour, whilst really wanting Avacta to succeed.

And yeah I have just two predictions - a much higher share price by end of June and that you won't be here commenting if that occurs. I'd say let's convene then but if I'm right on both you won't be there to discuss it with.

‘ I will be delighted to be wrong about this one’

_________

I don’t believe you! I predict if you are wrong you’ll scuttle off quietly never to appear here again. It happens all the time!

Tuesday the 22nd. This is just about the hardest payment to second guess cash or shares. A strong argument can be made for both this time around.

The lower the share price goes however the stronger the case for cash so I imagine there’s a limit to the downside from here.

Also the weaker the share price the greater the chance that AVCT look to licence out STS near term rather than go equity route, even if it means accepting less than they would otherwise (£40m?) Short term that will go down well as it’s the third party validation we’ve long craved even if it’s seen by some as giving away a lucrative asset for peanuts.

All this means we’ll see buyers stepping in if share price goes any lower.