Member Info for HarChris

P2 initial data due Q3 2026.

Yes management have guided late Q4 2025 for the release of P1b data.

Of course you'll point out that timelines are never met but that's the official timeline.

Was sort of my point. We aren’t relying on higher gold price here, the past twelve months has already derisked the investment. It’s already a different risk proposition and has essentially zero financial / placing risk now unlike 99% of AIM companies.

And if POG retraces to $2500/oz THX will see cash flow fall from about $45m per quarter to just under $40m per quarter.

It’s a cash cow unless POG absolutely collapses which is highly unlikely in such uncertain times.

Ignore the maths below, $1.8m* per month if they fall 40% short etc (up too early typing this). That’s significant positive cash flow.

This gold environment has given Emma and the team an opportunity beyond their wildest dreams. Does it guarantee success? No, but with the share price at such lows it feels like the time to be in it to win it.

It’s a strange time to be so negative when revenue is easily at a company high right now and likely seeing positive cash flow even at half the stated 1000 ounce target. And there’s every reason to expect grade and therefore ounces to increase now their moving into the new pit.

$3100 gold means gold dore fetching close to $3k, that means $3m monthly revenues soon if target is hit, but if they fall even 40% short we’re talking $1.6m revs per month, a figure never seen before at GRL.

It’s a strange time to be so gloomy like I say.

For me the biggest thing is that THX is totally derisked. They are derisked from a jurisdiction standpoint with highly favourable government support behind them and from a financial standpoint, as the past twelve months have removed the debt risk entirely and has THX sitting on a sizeable cash pot even if gold were to start declining to $2k from tomorrow.

It’s now a case of how high can this go? That will depend on the economics and cost profile of Douta like you point out and the ounces to be found at Segilola… still a little while off for full clarity on this but next set of drilling results from Seg are due imminently and I imagine more from Douta West follows with timelines not too far away.

30-35p is my derisked target from the upcoming financial news alone and then the quality of the PFS and MLE will determine if there’s multiples to be had from that level.

It doesn’t have to be an out and out rerate, we’ve seen share price recover from 14p to 25p. With each further derisking event greater confidence leads to gradual share price appreciation continuing.

We have a number of RNS’ coming up, we have further drilling results from Segilola and hopefully a timeline for when the update resource and mining plan will be ready, we have buyback/dividend announcement, we have what will be eye catching full year results and record breaking Q1 results, we will get further Douta West drilling results in the not too distant future and a detailed update on the lithium plans.

It’s hard to predict which will have the most impact or whether it’ll be a combination that does it but if they are positive more money will flow in here than leaves and we’ll creep up to 30p, to 35p etc all the while the wider markets are in disarray with most valuations crumbling.

There's basically two schools of thought here - the bull case argues that after years of teething issues and sub optimal performance Emma and her bolstered board have been presented with a chance to harness the experience gained over that time to really go and deliver now, an opportunity that is extremely fortunate (gold price related) but is very much there for the taking. So much so that even average execution from here on out will see a meaningful turnaround .

The bear case simply argues that leopards can't change their spots, the issue lies with Emma and the same cycle of overpromise under deliver will repeat and ultimately GRL will fail as an investment.

Both are reasonable but the valuation has priced in the latter considerably and hence if you are in the former camp and you're right the rewards from here will be tremendous.

I did this morning cl, few more thousand in the pot.

I recognise the risks but disconnect only grows and I’m sure this will go ‘pop’ suddenly in this gold environment.

It’s understandable why there’s disgruntled former holders like yourselves, it must have been a tough hold back in the day.

Fact remains GRL are in the best position they’ve been in for a long while and are a fraction of their former highs (15p in 2021, albeit half as many shares in issue).

Progress is happening here, the frustrating part is the over promising. Successfully transition to pit 1’with higher grades coming through in the coming months and all of us in from here will do very well indeed. Not much comfort to former holders or those with double figure averages but doesn’t take away from the opportunity at a historic low in a historic high gold price environment.

There's a long history of Emma missing her targets by a country mile, that is undeniable.

Do management over all these years and supported by the most incredible gold backdrop start to get things right and turn this ship around and back on course? Well that's the question you have to ask yourself. The market currently says no and therein lies the value.

6 or so months ago production was at 275 ounces per month, break even at about 700 ounces and target 1000.

Now at 550 ounces per month, break even at ~475 ounces and target 1000.

Share price hasn’t moved.

Antimony number one with new ATH*

Gold number three with new ATH.

Remember this a week ago? Well antimony now too this week with further rise and gold third. What an opportunity presenting itself here: https://x.com/minerdeck/status/1906315953790480559?s=46

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/afnisummit_segilolaresources-sustainablemining-communityengagement-activity-7311356427640434689-6Cdp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAEF8FNAB_aQt-bxX7NfSTJJPvogLrACz15U

And this video here: https://youtu.be/kHlpZrEDMto

Https://x.com/premski_sgp/status/1906233033579274575?s=46

It’s a good point this^^^

Most scanners show most recent profit of $10.87m (2023) and therefore a super high PE ratio. The upcoming full year results update that to $90m-$95m net profit. The scanners show significant debt and liabilities, the updated balance sheet will show all of the debt gone, other liabilities reduced and net asset value exceeding $200m.

Sure us holders know all of this already but it will help attract more investment this way.

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce, up from $3,100, with a target range of $3,250 to $3,520 per ounce.

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Yes management really need to deliver in the months ahead but what a backdrop they have to do it in.

I really think MSTR may end up being a disaster for bitcoin, if we go on to see a deep bear market next and debts start being called in it will cause the mother of all bank/bitcoin runs.

It’s not an issue for now, very little of it is maturing near term but 2026 onwards and there might be major problems.

I think bitcoin still has $125k in it this cycle but got to say though $83K bitcoin is damn disappointing given the amount bought by MSTR and the tailwind of a US supported administration. It never did become the safe haven asset some predicted.

That's because there was an amendment agreement last year and the price was decided then: 'In addition, the Company has entered into an agreement (the "Amendment Agreement") with Asian Investment Management Services Limited ("AIMSL") to extend to 31 December 2025 the standstill period in the Standstill Agreement dated 29 December 2023 relating to the exercise of certain of AIMSL's rights under the gold loan agreement entered into with the Company on 19 June 2020 ("Gold Loan Agreement"). Pursuant to the Amendment Agreement, AIMSL has also agreed to accept settlement of the interest accrued under the Gold Loan Agreement to 31 December 2023 by the issue to AIMSL of 101,803,680 new Ordinary Shares (the "Conversion Shares"). '

52m was issued last May, the other 49m today. I think it was an agreed price of around 1.2p both times hence the disconnect you see.

That’s fair. I like the fact we have all this news to come with the gold price tailwind firmly with us.

Next set of Segilola drill results in coming weeks, dividend or buyback update, full year results April, q1 operational update April, Q1 financials May, more Douta West drill results? And then lithium progress update in June. I think we’re in a good position and whilst it’s rampy to predict something like 60p we have a bit of a perfect storm here.