Member Info for HarChris

It's just a rather odd thing to be so dedicated in warning people on here about the risk of Avacta, giving up a lot of your time for such an endeavour, whilst really wanting Avacta to succeed.

And yeah I have just two predictions - a much higher share price by end of June and that you won't be here commenting if that occurs. I'd say let's convene then but if I'm right on both you won't be there to discuss it with.

‘ I will be delighted to be wrong about this one’

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I don’t believe you! I predict if you are wrong you’ll scuttle off quietly never to appear here again. It happens all the time!

Tuesday the 22nd. This is just about the hardest payment to second guess cash or shares. A strong argument can be made for both this time around.

The lower the share price goes however the stronger the case for cash so I imagine there’s a limit to the downside from here.

Also the weaker the share price the greater the chance that AVCT look to licence out STS near term rather than go equity route, even if it means accepting less than they would otherwise (£40m?) Short term that will go down well as it’s the third party validation we’ve long craved even if it’s seen by some as giving away a lucrative asset for peanuts.

All this means we’ll see buyers stepping in if share price goes any lower.

So this is where we stand as investors today:

If GRL go on to hit this 1000 ounce fore target soon we are quids in, no matter what gold does next (no way is POG going sub $2250/oz in this geopolitical climate). If POG holds above $3000/oz then expansion options open wide and we’ll see a major rerate.

If GRL continue to fall short of said target, say averaging 750 ounces over the coming months, then the gold price plays a bigger part. At a $3k gold price we’ll be fine from this one, the gold loan will be gradually paid off and share price should recover modestly. But if POG were to fall back towards $2.25k things wouldn’t be looking so sunny.

In other words if you believe POG will remain bullish for a while to come anything bar a total operational fu** up will see you with positive returns from here. If you believe the 1000 ounce target will be achieved as promised then you don’t have to even concern yourself with the POG in terms of a positive return, only in terms of how much upside you’re going to see.

I love the risk/return profile right now.

With 1000 ounces in sight and a 82.4% conversion to troy ounces here's a remind for what it means to GRL at three possible gold prices:

@$2750/oz - annual revenue of $27.2m

@3000/oz - annual revenue of $29.6m

@ 3250/oz - annual revenue of $32.1m

With cash being generated from revenues of ~$12m / $1m per month you can see that GRL becomes a cash cow if 1000 ounces achieved no matter what gold does next (even if retrace to as much as $2.25k).

Who knows in this market but goal number one to maximise returns must be to reach cash flow positive without further funding. Seeing as VSA previously had IES ending 25 with £25.9m cash and then going on to be borderline profitable in 2026 there's a lot of wiggle room there. Revenue in line with forecasts for 2024 and 2025 means that is looking very hopeful as well as 'currently negotiating "multiple large-scale projects for delivery in 2026' So becoming considerably derisked which by itself should start to be reflected in the share price (maybe once the worst of this volatility is behind us).

Beyond that ~250MWh sales per year should bring profitability so a 400MWh sale would project annual profit from that one project alone and would surely lead to a rerate...if the share price isn't already at a much healthier value by then.

We know that Invinity's batteries are the better choice vs lithium BESS in terms of fire risk, in terms of longevity (who wants to replace batteries every ten years?), in terms of recyclability / environmental harm with much of the vanadium being salvageable after use and in terms of levelised cost of energy. Now with how much cost reduction is being achieved and the possibility of massive tariffs being slapped on China and the Asian nations you named we might well see upfront headline cost between ENDURIUM and lithium BESS for the US market being somewhat comparable too in the future.

It's a shame this wasn't mentioned or asked about in the Q&A yesterday but will surely make the US market the highest priority for Invinity if it does turn out to be the case...

The collapse in oil prices can only be adding to margins for GRL, far bigger fall in that than in the pullback from ATH gold price.

It's true re higher number of shares in issue but it's also true that the market cap was higher than today for all of last summer, until the placing at 1.05p.

There isn't a question that GRL are in better shape today than they were at any point last summer, when burning cash like no tomorrow, were producing a fraction of what they are now and at a much lower gold price and had a high chance of becoming insolvent in the near future.

So whilst like-for-like share price comparison isn't all that helpful like-for-like market cap comparison points to far better value today than last year.

1nvest that's true but the timeframes she's using are shrinking, from six months to a couple of months (as of early Feb interview). And now with gold at $3100/oz she can continue to miss them and still see cash flowing through the business so we as investors at this level are insulated somewhat.

And progress is unequivocal (stacking etc) even if it's not as fast as promised.

Emma knows that shareholders have become weary and tired of missed targets so I find it hard to believe she would persist with such ambitious near term targets and ramp up the media communication if she wasn’t sure of what’s coming…

Amazing that the share price is still a good 25% below what it was in the summer.

When people talk of risks, to me, number one risk anyone investing on AIM should be considering is the funding situation and more specifically, the potential need to turn to shareholders via a placing. That risk with THX is as close to zero as it gets as a cash cow now generating $40m cash per quarter and still a cash cow if gold were to tumble from $3000/oz to $2500/oz and even to $2000/oz. So number one risk on AIM is not one we have to worry about here.

It’s not debt free…. There’s a great opportunity from here but no need to mislead.

I just assumed sushi was a pre-programmed bot - no humans are that boring and repetitive are they?!

‘‘ most/many will tolerate side effects if they get to live longer.’’

Where did you grab this fact from, out of your arnoozie? What side effects are we talking here? The dignity-sucking side effects typical with chemotherapy?

People dismiss safety as a routine box ticking exercise but when it comes to chemo it’s a far bigger part of the equation.

‘We believe Thor is materially undervalued and therefore reserve the right to buyback our shares until we have reached a level we think better reflects the development and progress seen over the past few years and the strong future outlook’

Share price does 50% from that statement alone.

‘ Investing is where you find a few great companies & then sit on your ass’

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Applied to AIM in bearish times like this I think it should be adapted to read ‘investing is where you find a few great, fully funded, companies & then sit on your ass.

HEX is a perfect example and will have everyone piling in as we enter a far richer news period soon.

Yeah and that's why the early results are so profound. P1a starts as a pure safety trial, the safety quickly becomes evident and suddenly signs of efficacy start appearing and in some cases clearly surpassing what's already out there such as with SGC and progression free survival, yet in heavily pretreated patients.

P1b won't be enough for approval, sure, but it may well be enough to substantially derisk p2 and assure BP that the chance of success is so high that waiting longer for full approval just isn't worth it.

I do like this management team but the main mistake here was the timidness in terms of fundraising throughout the past two years. I know they assumed grant funding would do most of the work but setting up a placing and raising a mere £635k against a £10m valuation, like they did for example in 2023, slowed down progress so dramatically.

Raising piecemeal, attempting to minimise dilution, very rarely works, it just starts the clock to the next raise. I know it's easy to say it with hindsight but unless your share price is down enormously (and with BRES it wasn't for said placing) you just hold your nose, raise what you need, and get it over and done with.

In times of deep geopolitical uncertainty there's only one place to turn... wait no, two places to turn - beauty and nutrition!