Member Info for HarChris

How much is your guess for increase in all in costs this year compared to last then? 15%? Ie cash flow break even at $4.5m revs per half year?

They will almost certainly be generating cash at current production/$3230/oz, before we even get to 1000/oz.

If that happens and oil stays low we might not be far off $3k net margin! Divi will certainly be increased if it plays out like that.

Https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/pharmaceutical-tariffs-coming-in-next-month-or-two-howard-lutnick-signals-imminent-tariffs-on-imported-medicines/articleshow/120256901.cms

Who knows how many more u turns there will be between now and then though.

Your a real tiresome one.

(i) They are not at 1000 ounces yet so no they aren't yet generating $2.6m revs per month, it's the hope by sort of June time.

(ii) They will certainly be generating *some* cash now that the gold price is ~45% higher than what it averaged in H1 2024 plus production is more than double per month so far through 2025. Break even is about $1m revs p/m and I imagine as of right now revenue is in the range of $1.3m and $1.7m so likely generating cash but nothing like they would be at 1000 ounces if/when.

Gold dore in GRLs case is 82.4% pure gold so 1000 ounces per month is 824 troy ounces = $2.6m revs at $3200/oz.

That's the amount of revenue they generated in the whole of H1 2024. Think about that, if GRL reach this 1000 ounce target soon they'll be generating per month what they were previously generating per half year.

Haha ‘cheerleading’ made me laugh and I think it’s very fair! I felt compelled to defend my investment against a barrage of negativity at times but in all honesty I could never have guessed gold would have gone on to such elevated levels - I was in this early as I thought gold would go to $2500/oz so this is well beyond my wildest dreams right now.

These new forecasts and optimism for gold well into 2026 is highly significant for THX, more so than any producer what with their tax holiday. Every extra dollar gold rises, 100% of it crystallises into cash for these two years to come.

There’s still a lot more upside to be had here as others have said and I look forward to continue contributing for a long while to come. Happy weekend all.

I'm not sure it's necessary to keep telling us when you're in and out and back in and back out again but good luck with your decisions all the same!

And just to make clear it’s not that I’ve ever said there’s no jurisdiction risk it’s that I’ve refuted the claim that THX is overall high risk. It has no debt risk, it has the strongest of balance sheets, it’s delivered amazingly well against the mine plan and the one obvious risk, the jurisdiction, has at least been vastly mitigated.

I was referring to those who singularly focused on Nigeria and argued therefore this was a sell / one to avoid.

We are talking about this particular investment relative to the valuation, why can’t you just accept that we called this right? We didn’t say it was low risk, we arguably vehemently that far, far too much risk was baked in than was the reality, given all the information we had and conversations with management and hence the valuation was ludicrous.

We were proved right in this instance but it wasn’t a finger in the air guess, it was based on a whole load of factors.

Nigeria might rate highly on the US corruption perception list but it’s not really relevant if you are already operating there and have a board of directors with strong healthy relationships with the most important federal officials. It might be relevant to a small US business thinking of opening an office in Abuja however.

I had been saying for a while how much more pleasant it will be on here once THX breaks out to new ATHs and all the trolls finally leave us. It was only last month that we had a single troll with three accounts totally dominating this BB and then puff, as expected, gone just like that. A good few others too highlighting how supposedly high risk this was, repeatedly, again suddenly silent.

Onwards and upwards to 30p and well beyond!

The NET margin here is as much as $2400/oz… one year ago the gold price had only ever briefly, once, reached that level.

We’re talking net margin higher than gold itself has ever been historically. It’s a staggering situation we find ourselves in and THX is just a little incy wincy bit above ATH.

Dazpink, thanks a lot for sharing.

Anyone got access to the full article to share by any chance?

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/is-it-a-good-time-to-buy-shares-in-puretech-health-v9x2snj3p

As I mentioned recently the most important thing here is hitting the production target of 1000 ounces, that’s the critical factor and it does appear to be close now. The second most important factor is a high gold price, with $3000/oz being above all of our expectations.

See both at the same time soon? That’s the jackpot.

Most likely yes, although they move much more like tech stocks so a lot will depend on the US stock market when it comes to bitcoin mining performance over the next twelve months.

I think BTC itself might decouple somewhat from the US stock market but i'm not convinced the actual bitcoin price is as important to bitcoin miner sentiment as the market is as a whole.

It’s certainly crazy to see bitcoin difficulty break higher again. We’re talking an almost 6 fold increase since Nov 2021 time when it first touched $60k, so just taking these two points (albeit an extreme example) you have BTC 30% higher and difficult 580% higher.

That’s not sustainable. We’ll be entering ‘only the strongest survive’ territory at some point in the not too distant future.

Famous last words…

I think they’ll be looking at 1000 ounces first, then increase that further with second dry plant before the proper expansion and drilling out at depth to hit the +6g/t ore. And maybe JV Akrokeri.

‘ See the difference?’

It’s their day job so your point isn’t a very good one. They are paid through the issuing of company stock, if they fail then they will essentially have been paid nothing over a number of years as executives of a public limited company.

They could have paid themselves handsomely and then promised to buy stock each month but there’s been limited resources here and it’s unlikely they would have ended up putting as much back into stock so I prefer it this way around.

AIM Directors tend to do whatever they want without accountability and end up walking away unscathed if they fail - that at least isn’t the case here.

I understand your point.

Puretech is not just falling inline with the wider market it is disproportionately sinking.