Member Info for HarChris

Nice timing just as gold takes off again...

In that case expect it in two days time.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=lwU2kby955MpjFa6&v=BVhVrgPbSJk&feature=youtu.be

Seven weeks old now so about to find out if the content in here is about to be delivered or not - worth a rewatch for holders.

Or accept a low ball 40-50p TO bid from Cosmen.

Wigwam, of course (if you're talking to me).

But like you I think the sell off is overdone still - tomorrow's IMC will dictate the direction one way or other.

Unless you’re in the camp that thinks there’s a conspiracy to ‘steal’ the company on the cheap… yes. Sure it turned out the NA bus business wasn’t worth what the brokers thought (well absolute lowest of range) but that doesn’t mean the rest of the profitable business is worth just £200m.

I bought more at 36pnfor an eventual doubling.

The gold loan was very much included in my ‘negative’ pile, the fact it’s a physical goal loan rather than amount does counterbalance the gold price move somewhat.

Still, achieve 1000 ounces soon and there’ll be ~400 ounces per month over after covering all in group costs, possibly much more. You see how quickly the loan can be paid down / managed but it remains a risk until the higher production is achieved and the AISC is visible.

For the same reason they wanted to all through 2024 when they built a 21% holding? They were well aware of the debt at that stage and were paying between 50p and £1 per share to accumulate such a sizeable position - increase now at the lows and put in an offer around the 50p mark seems a likely outcome to me.

It's also worth noting that back in August the target was 1000 ounces, by now. Back then we were happy with $2450/oz so if we assume gold price had remained there (it was at an ATH back then) then at 1000 oz dore p/m revenue would be ~$2m a month.

At today's gold price that amount of revenue is achieved at 720 oz. Taking most recent figure of 600 ounces for past month revenue is almost at the level expected by now. Achieve 1000 oz and it's a whole 40% higher. That's the margin for error/upside that the sky high gold environment is affording GRL right now.

I like to compare with August 2024 though as we’re back to the placing price. Positives since:

(i) CLN sorted with the best possible outcome and overhang cleared

(ii) gold price 35% higher from what was already a sky high level

(iii) int. oil prices 25% lower which will be alleviating costs significantly

(iv) successful ramp up of stacked and agglomerated ore to ~50kt. Expansion on going at a steady pace regards cell pads and production and should be mining pit 1 now (only slightly behind q1 target).

Negatives - (i) the main one is the on going lack of belief in management executing successfully. Timelines are never met and clearly many remain on the sidelines waiting to see what the next operational update has to say. So close to an inflection point but no one will be fully confident of it happening near term with an expectation of some sort of delay being built in at each juncture.

(ii) gold loan has increased due to it being a physical gold loan. Continue to rely on AIMS remaining a supportive lender and shareholder. Need perfect execution from here to turn things around and no longer require AIMS’ support.

Finally ironing out the issues and putting the negatives to bed will see GRL becoming a £40m+ mcap business. And until that happens share price will remain stuck in the doldrums.

‘ What I don't understand is why wasn't a dividend given to Arcm shareholders from the jv cash after you folks had to endure the fully funded raise, the SP crashing from 9p to 1.3p, and of course Mushy's legal battles?’

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Yes salaries are a tad too high but even if they were halved and the savings distributed to shareholders it would be a meaningless amount. Obviously we weren’t going to get a dividend, the cash being received from the JV is weighted towards completion so so far only a modest amount has been received, when P1 finishes ~end of 2026 that will boost the finances considerably.

With all the news backed up (assays, mine plan) I suspect we’re in for a very rich news period in May now.

In August 2024 with POG at $2450/oz Goldstone got a small placing away at 1.05p, a 44% discount to 5 day VMAp at the time. Here the net proceeds would be used 'to advance development at the Homase Mine in Ghana towards delivering the planned 50,000 tonnes of stacked and agglomerated ore and achieving the Group's gold-production target of 1,000oz per calendar month, and for general working capital purposes.'

The half year report showed little improvement a month later in production and no mention of progress on stacked and agglomerated ore 'Post period end, the Company has continued to produce approximately 250 troy ounces per month, with latest full month production in August 2024 being 236 ounces of doré.

November Homase update pointed to some green shoots - 'Mining continues in Pit 2 which is expected to be completed late January 2025, with preparation work starting in Pit 1 to commence production in Q1 2025.' Also 'Earthworks continue for the extension to Cell 5 and to Cells 6 and 7 and preparations for Cell 4 have begun to prepare for a second lift' & the above (48000 stacked ore, 1000 ounces production) supposedly on target for January.

9th Dec update - 45000t stacked agglomerated ore, 380 oz dore produced is an improvement but well short of target.

15th Jan update - stacking at 48000t per month and expected to be maintained. Small improvement on production but again much slower than we'd want at 416 oz at a time we should be close to 1000. Clearly transition to pit 1 is delayed but not mentioned.

12th Feb update - here things start to get interesting as gold takes on $3000/oz. A step up, if modest, increase in gold poured to 522 oz, a doubling of the monthly average seen before the placing. Especially given this commentary alongside: 'Lower-than-expected ore grades in the final stages of the Pit 2 of operations, which is nearing the limits of the oxide ore, are currently impacting final gold production volumes, however operations will shortly be re-entering the higher grade Pit 1, which was placed on hold in 2023 due to the now completed relocation of a stream. As such, mining operations will re-commence in Pit 1 within a month, where expected grades are 1-1.2 g/t, which with increased stacking and the continued improvement in leach kinetic rates is expected to facilitate the achievement of our production target over the coming months.'

March 26th update - here it felt like a holding rns. 'Record' pour of 599 ounces but appears to be over a slightly longer timeframe, 'mining operations will re-commence in Pit 1 this month' , 'extension to cell 5 nearing completion' & 'civil engineering work continues for the construction of Cells 6 and 7'

Conclusion? Well progress is evident but it's always slower than promised. The backdrop has made up for it but it's now or never on delivery to really make the most of the backdrop and to completely turn this ship 180, back on the right course. Could be a different picture by June.

Well I've been sat here with a small holding for a while which is now at a stonking loss - have decided to double up as this still looks overdone and the bottom looks to be in to me. Let's see what the yanks have to say!

Powell will do what he thinks is right irrespective of what others think his reasoning is. I don't think this recent furore with Trump will alter his decision in any way.

'That might be the case (and for investors here obviously that would be super good) but that was almost always the position in the entire time here, 3yrs+ I was invested '

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There's an obvious difference though. Back then GRL were either pre production and needing to reach some challenging target or were at something like 200 ounces and were needing to hit 1000 ounce target, a 5 fold increase.

Now they are at ~550 ounces and are already at a level where they can generate cash. All they are looking for is a modest uplift to be highly profitable.

Cosmen buys the whole business now for ~60p in the coming months.

We can't see the improvement in black and white because of the timing that accounts are released. What with them being June (full year results) and September (half year) we're still having to compare with H1 2024 but it's easy to calculate (estimate) the vast improvement being seen comparing month on month through 2025 so far.

Take H1 for example - total loss was $3.8m with cash burn from operations at$1.3m.

At June 30th GRL had $780k cash + $600k gross subscription so call that $500k net giving $1.28m. If there hadn't been improvement GRL would have run out of cash by December. We are now almost in May and still there has been no cash call... looking at the numbers almost certainly cash generation is now happening which is a major step change compared to the haemorrhaging that was going on last year.

It's wise to wait for confirmation from management but those running the numbers can see the transformation and if cash generation is happening at 500 ounces per month then the numbers are going to look mighty good when (if) that 1000 ounce target is hit in the not too distant future.

Https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart

It's the highest in history besides the anomaly in 2020 when oil price briefly went negative. The higher this ratio the better the margins for a gold miner.

Wow, some good news for the Dickens County residents!

My word how bad does that read though - completed Helios in May 2022 and were forced to sell it six months later, talk about mismanagement!

As for Argo it looks clear as day they are going to be suspended next week and yet still some are buying today. Beggar’s belief.

Tbh my views aren’t miles from yours, the difference is I see them as adding to the investment case. I understand the reason the share price is down here, management failed historically and it’s only the backdrop that has now given them a second chance (or third, or fourth) but what a backdrop it is! …quite unlike what we could have imagined ($3300/oz gold, low oil prices!).

I see the option package as a big incentive to play by the rules and to deliver. Do I see the share price ‘going to the moon’?, well I’m less confident of that but high enough to execute all the warrants and options ie ~3.5p? Yeah.

And that would make most of us, relatively new to GRL, very happy.

It was a super risky investment, it’s now less risky than it was but yeah we’re still an RNS away from it being vastly less risky.