Member Info for HarChris

Well you also stated that p1a finished almost a year ago and then went on to make the point that 1b is therefore suspiciously slow.

In fact 12th December is when it was announced that 'the completion of the enrollment in the AVA6000 Phase 1a Dose Escalation and Recommended Dose for Expansion (RDE) cohort' which is exactly six months ago. You call six months nearly a year?

Sure but you're missing the key word 'within'. Seeing as wet season is roughly December-April I expect Anglo will be aiming to have all drilling complete before next year's dry season concludes i.e November 2026.

Touk, you're joking right? 31st March is the date you're using even though we know for sure 'multiple patients treated' by March 7th?

Hmm you could also argue that BP could see an opportunity to swoop in and take the company out now at a fraction of what it would cost further down the line if 6103 is proven in humans - especially if they doubt there’ll be multiple competing offers at this stage.

It’s not like Avacta can’t fund it themselves, they could via equity alone of no LD or partnership, we just don’t want that sort of dilution. But they can go it alone and hence possibly an incentive for BP to bite the bullet soon.

In truth it’s impossible to call what the next six months has in store.

Well all we know for certain is that multiple patients had been treated by March 7th, so over two months ago. Most likely first patient was treated slightly before that, say end of February, so we're at ten weeks for those patients. Give it a couple of months more and there will be significant data coming through.

I don't think we'll have to wait til the end of 2025 for 1b related news if what's coming out of the data room is compelling.

Or the selling of Botswana licences? Or a new JV? Or if neither of those two options occur waiting til ARCM receives the much larger cash payment from Anglo in 2026 as phase 1 ends?

Lots of possibilities.

'Excellent 1b data needed ASAP, currently preliminary data due late 2025.'

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That's not far away if we assume prelim 1b data in early Q4. All we need in the interim is the CLN renegotiated (Heights agreeing to lock in with new terms?) or a $10m rights issue that covers the quarterly payments until April 2026 and the focus will turn to the 1b data once again.

He'll have certainly taken the job thinking there was a chance to pull off debt financing and keep the company alive using HPC as the reasoning for investment however so far there's been two financing deals that have fallen by the wayside. I am not scare mongering, I am telling it as it is for those who want to listen... Argo are running out of time. They will be running on fumes re cash position and they are burning money so a deal or raise is needed by (guess without all the info) July latest and probably sooner.

This is the first time in Argo's history where the debt has exceeded market cap, that means they can't now cover it via equity. Will another debt deal be sorted in the nick of time? Possibly but unlikely. Will an investor take a punt via a rights issue in the hope of selling at a higher price following a bitcoin-based SP spike? Slightly more possible but even that must be at best 50/50 now.

There is no bankruptcy risk near term clearly, there is *some* longer term and that’s what’s being partially priced in. That and unsavoury (for shareholders) methods to restructure the debt.

I like you don’t expect it to happen hence being long here.

Bankruptcy risk is certainly being somewhat priced in but the market is still waiting to make its decision on where next.

If you think this is a turnaround play from here and get it right there will be +100% return from here, although anything that makes bankruptcy look more likely and this could still halve again this year.

I’ve bought in heavily in the 30s but it really could go either way until we get further updates.

They don’t have the funds to move into HPC. They will probably be cashless by end of June and then it’ll depend whether investors will prop them up another time via a rights issue.

Debt is way too high to be met in late 2026, it could well be game over soon.

Yeah although it's only a potential downgrade for now.

True. Still, been a larger than normal volume over the past three days and finished exactly where we started. Tells us Lyons’s that wanted out are likely out with buyers absorbing it all.

So perfectly positioned of GRL can put out a good update next week - c’mon Emma!

Well look at those huge late printed trades - there’s a buyer of those shares hence the rise today.

There was six weeks between the last gold pour and the one before so it’s entirely possible the next one is only just happening now with news on figures Monday - that’s the day each of the last two were reported.

Yes and clearly they’ve missed the target but they have never promised monthly updates. The latest update speaks of expectation of higher grades and uplift from production at the new pit - it has clearly been too soon for that to show through so we sit and wait and hope just as management will be doing.

No point demanding an earlier update if there’s little to report.

Hasiba you might be right that Argo gets a pump but it’s nothing but BS to pretend there’s any actual operational future here. They will try and raise as much as they can to last as long as possible but they will not overcome the debt when it’s due in 2026.

No doubt about it we’re at a pivotal point now, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say the next update could rerate SP to 2p+ or add it crater to half a penny. It needs to signal unequivocally that 1000 ounces is actually achievable, hard evidence not just talk although in this gold environment even something a bit less, consistently, would justify a slightly higher mcap.

If there’s no sign of consistent uplift in output we will surely see a raise or further long term debt to pay down the gold loan. Insolvency is a risk at just 400 ish ounces a month.

Lots in there, will give a full read later but the cash update is interesting with more detail than I expected.

$6.2m burnt between Dec 31st to March 31st taking cash down to $2.4m. Add $2m for machines sales since so you then have to guess what the cash burn is now that the refurbishment of machines is over and more revenue is coming in. Perhaps $1.5m in April whilst refurbishment was on going and now around $1m and falling if BTC keeps rising?

I imagine as of today cash is about $2.5m and so a new financing deal or placing is needed mid q3 at the latest.

Https://youtu.be/hOwr1BMudHk