Member Info for HarChris

'My research suggest's 0.7p per share, happy to punt a few quid at that price. Any views?'

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Would you mind sharing that research and analysis? I'm sure it's very detailed and would be useful for all of us here.

With you there Peggy, 90% upside simply from producing and sharing a drill plan with Arcm in the coming months.

The same traders buying and selling would explain it.

Definite no fundamental reason. Financial results later this week will show that.

Both shorts now reduce .1% in the past week and higher lows being set, we'll see the 30s again this week.

It hasn’t amounted to nothing, it’s just taken longer than most of us anticipated. All we’ve learnt is of a lack of urgency from Anglo in the first year and alongside an ever deteriorating market patience has been exhausted and the share price has gone from one extreme to the other.

It’s only in the coming months/years that we will find out whether there are tier 1 deposits here to be discovered. If you don’t expect any sort of positive outcome then it doesn’t matter what the share price is but if you are hopeful then obviously today at 1.1p with likely a serious year of drilling ahead of us the value is much better than 4p a few years back.

Maybe the JV will eventually amount to nothing, that’s the bet, but to say it hasn’t before it’s even properly started is simply misleading.

‘ And again what is for you, "a tidy return" from here? 50p, 60p 100p? What are your expectations now?’

For me personally a 100% return and so around 140p. Given the broker attributes 42p for SGC with a 10% CoS I think it’s safe to assume SGC alone would get us to 140p, even accounting for a lot more shares in issue. And then it’s inevitable that one approval supports and funds 6103, which at least relatively speaking, should be more effective than 6000.

If you believe SGC is likely to be approved (and it does sound like you do) then it unlocks the rest of the opportunity/upside.

‘This is meant to be the biggest game changer in cancer treatment in decades. ‘

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Or perhaps it’s somewhere in between? I’ve noticed you do this a few times, start with the hypothesis ‘is this the biggest breakthrough in cancer in decades?’ and if you can argue otherwise that’s a claim for this investment failing. You like to make everything seem binary but in reality ava6000 merely needs to gain approval in a couple of indications with high unmet need for shareholders here to make a pretty tidy return from here. As a minimum.

I'm sorry Wyn but you make it rather difficult to coherently answer because you swing from one narrative to another.

I was responding to the laughable claim that Avacta have essentially missed the boat because they've taken too long dragging out this p1 trial and you immediately respond with 'then why hasn't anyone bought out Avacta yet?'. I mean, c'mon, do tell me the point you're trying to make here? Is it that Avacta not being bought out at a very early stage when a tiny minority of other small biotech companies are proves that Avacta and its platform is fast becoming redundant?!

I predict that the majority of the recent posters who were crowing about lower and lower lows won't be seen again if this starts to recover from here. They'll magically disappear into the ether.

The notion that Avacta, like Brando in The Waterfront 'coulda been a contender' but missed out due to spending an extra year or two in phase 1a is so very stupid. The idea that all progress and innovation in the space has happened suddenly/now and so any further delay means this platform will become redundant is just laughable.

Some people seem to come up with a different reason this investment will fail daily.

How many times, no they don’t have to spend $88.5m unless they progress to further phases but they do have to fulfil their phase 1 obligations which means a further ~$21m needs to be sunk into the ground over the next couple of years and Unico must be paid $10m more.

Which are still, relatively to arcm’s current valuation, pretty big numbers.

I’m happy with the director purchases of the past few weeks but what really moves it is institutional buying, particularly Cosmen. Any tr1 from them and TO talk will be immediately back on - could well see this ending up being sold for ~50-60p.

Here I do agree with the below poster - there's a long history of missed targets and not just missed but egregiously missed.

I'm still holding out hope that finally they are going to start delivering on their promises but there's a reason the share price is at 0.88p with gold at $3200/oz and that's because we're at the 'we'll believe it when we see it' stage.

Heavily invested here so crossing everything that we finally see a big step up in production in the coming months but it's by no means guaranteed.

The worse the market gets the greater the case for giving away some of the pie and accepting a deal on STS/SGC/TNBC that they might have rejected otherwise.

A bargain basement placing with no third party validation will likely cost us more long term.

And then it's $5.33m to Arcm as a worst case scenario. Hopefully there's been promising results following two years of drilling and the warrants are executed at 3p, phase 2 of the JV commences and Arcm have enough funds to go at some targets of their own.

It's a simple fact that the cash payments aren't related to JV progressing to phase 2, Unico is owed $1m this November, $1m next November and $8m when phase one concludes, likely end of 2026. The only way I can see those funds not released were if something prevented Anglo from being able to explore the tenure over these upcoming two drill seasons. That's not the same as Anglo voluntarily walking away.

As for cash position we know they had £2.4m/$3.2m as of June 30th. They went on to receive $0.66m in November and will again this November so $4.6m needs to get them through to the end of phase 1, assuming no Bots sale. Bots drilling was limited, Chingola initial upront cash cost was just $50k so as long as NvS doesn't take the pis* and continues to temper management's remuneration there shouldn't be any cash concerns, with some cash over for exploration.

The positive for us is that break even should be as low as ~375 ounces per month currently, so as long as they get to the 1000 ounce target this year, even if say September, they'll be generating cash along the way before profit taking off.

This really is a low cost operation, upside and margin will be massive if they can finally ramp up on the production front.

So if that's something you were previously worried about you can relax.

No, phase 1 is $14.5m in cash and $24m exploration spend, with a large chunk of the cash released as phase 1 concludes. It has nothing to do with progression to phase 2.