Member Info for HarChris

I think it could certainly still mean 100% of the licences could be worth a lot more than £15m, yeah.

It was clear they were selling back then, nobody sensible on here denied it at the time.

It’s confirmation that most of the selling over the past 6 or 7 trading days is this particular PI with an initial 30m share holding. It doesn’t account for the entirety of volume but it does for the majority of large trades so the likelihood of your proposed claim has decreased considerably.

For now the recent fall is not primarily down to a big holder in the know deciding to sell, much more likely they are holding firm which is a positive.

And we should remember that the market cap has been as high as ~£55m over the past few years, that was pre drilling in Zambia.

Sentiment is trashed right now but major discoveries will mean many multiples of that £55m valuation, let alone today’s £15m.

You're joking, right? So what percentage do you think Anglo should get for taken on all the risk, up to seven years of heavy exploration whilst funding ARCM along the way? 20%? 10%?!

Fact is if they unearth the tier 1 deposits they clearly think might be there given these are Anglo's highest priority targets then the assets will be worth $billions and ARCM's share will be worth many, many multiples of today's lowly market cap.

And if they discover smaller tier 2 deposits which are economic but not large enough for Anglo to bother with then they may well return 100% of the licences back and ARCM would still see a valuation many times what it is today.

So there's three possible main outcomes here and two of them would lead to a very healthy return.

Thanks CLSK, that's the conformation that proves the below poster is talking BS to suggest so definitively that this must be AIMS/Paracale/Nguvu (the biggest holders) selling rather than wealthy PIs. At most with the recent volume (and taking out your sells) a big holder could have reduced by 10% or so at most. And likely hasn't.

I understand your frustration but likelihood is the most recent gold pour just wasn't that good and they need an extra three or four weeks to know if the new pit is going to deliver. I'd personally be happier with them sharing that publicly rather than trying to bury short term perceived bad news but ultimately what matters is that the next update has enough of a positive in there to give investors the confidence to buy back in / go in hard at such a lowly valuation. And they can stand on their own two feet in the meantime even at ~300 ounces per month.

Exactly, that's why I said my guess is that it's PIs whilst yours is that it's 'those in the know', that's all. You tried to make your claims sound a bit more like a fact.

Yeah agree with you on the record gold pour. Clearly April wasn't a great number whilst they transitioned to pit 1, the pours from June onwards are make or break. They have to be at least setting new monthly highs to really eat away at the debt and see the turnaround most of us want here.

The gold price is buying them even more time and breathing space but the underperformance can't go on forever.

I’ve actually seen three AIM raises over the past few weeks with virtually no discount and SP rising off the back of them.

If there is a subscription of sorts here over the coming weeks there’s no guarantee it will be a heavily discounted one, especially if it’s small to extend the runway slightly and is met by IIs and directors.

A few days ago you said if AA produce a drill plan you could see this going to 2p and then today you essentially rule it out.

It's May, miners are only just starting to commence drilling campaigns in Zambia around now/over the coming weeks, this is just the start of the season that goes through well into December, there is plenty of time.

If on June 30th there's no drill plan dredge up this thread and scream 'I told you so!' but you're making ridiculous claims right now with no shred of evidence.

Definitely looks like the bottom is in, hopefully a quick 20% to be had from here before it settles in the low to mid 30s pending more news.

And even 400 ounces is highly conservative... a mere 300 dore ounces generates ~$825k at today's gold price, likely around monthly break even.

'Even the company's own directors are not buying because they don't understand how amazing this is going to be.'

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It's highly unlikely they'd be able to buy with either a major deal or some other form of financing being worked behind the scenes. Plus Christina received 3.6m options at 72p, success here means she makes £10m plus, is she going to try to carve out an opportunity to buy £20k and make a tad more when she's so incentivised as it is?

Look at the change we've seen.

June 30th cash was £778k yet by late August they were raising again, £600k (gross) for working capital plus expansion. At that time they were producing ~250 dore ounces at ~$2400/oz and so revenue of sub $500k p/m would have seen heavy cash burn...

Hence two months further equity was issued to clear $300k of debt whilst taking another ~$200k cash. We don't know if GRL were running out of funds at this point but it's likely they needed a boost, alongside the capital spent to prepare for ramp up at Homase.

We're now seven months since that last subscription. November through to 24th March saw 1920 ounces poured in ~20 weeks, about 400 ounces per calendar month. Nov/Dec likely around break even at ~$850k p/m but we can be near certain that at over $1m revenue per month since GRL have turned the corner and are generating cash.

For this to continue through June and H2 grl merely needs to continue at the rate we've been seeing, 400 ounces per calendar month. Every additional ounce above that is excess gold to pay down the the gold loan and bolster the balance sheet.

Not a definite but there's a hell of a lot of upside here if GRL can get close to this 1000 ounce target over the coming months and even more if they actually achieve it. Especially as we're back near the SP lows of early 2024.

You have absolutely no evidence that the seller is one of the big entities that's in the know, none whatsoever to be that definitive in language.

Volume is low and a user on here (CLSK) was capable of bringing the share price down 10% by selling 5m of his shares a week or so ago. He could be selling more or any one of numerous PIs that will have anywhere from 5-20m shares each.

My guess it's PIs derisking / putting their money elsewhere but just like you it's a guess.

They should be bothered about share price as there's always a chance they end up issuing further shares to cover the gold loan and so the higher the SP the better... but agree it isn't priority right now and that's a positive if it means they are generating cash whilst they focus on the ramp up in gold production.

A longer than usual period without news is never heartening but there's rational reasons why so just got to hope when it comes it's the one we're all waiting for.

New ATH gold price again soon?

It’s such a dream of an opportunity for the management as gold stays stubbornly above $3300/oz. Failure from here would be truly catastrophic.

Or it really isn't as big a deal as you are convinced it is? 9 months cash runway and numerous avenues to raise being sufficient alongside a qualifying statement for the auditors to sign off.

I think I'm a genius investor?! Far from it! Just a very ordinary PI who enjoys posting on LSE.

I made quite a lot during covid (fluke as much as anything) and have given most of it back since. Your read couldn't be more wrong.

Seems a strange and hypocritical post considering you wrote this a couple of days ago:

''I know you are wyn, and appreciate it. I'd like the discussion to be about AVCT, not other posters.''