Member Info for HarChris

Starting now - will finish with a Q&A.

I'll repeat what I said before:

With such uncertainty after the announcement of the NA sale I think the 60p to 30p collapse was justified. Once Garat stepped down, the two large director buys were announced followed by Cosmen tr1 showing they added that eased the uncertainty enormously and for me means a share price somewhere in between (think 45p) is now justified.

One has to assume Cosmen have given their seal of approval, without them and other IIs voting against there’s no chance.

Erm, it's still an if rather than a when but if they do then significant cash will be being generated and that will go towards paying down the gold loan and also the low cost expansion via a second dry plant potentially as much as doubling production again.

There's a path to much greater scale through accessing the 6g+ ore but we're too far away from that for it to be part of the discussion right now, especially at such a lowly mcap.

There's already been an uplift from ~250 ounces to ~500 ounces, hence why there's been no raise despite likely being close to the bone cash-wise at christmas. That's five months of standing on their own two feet.

No I'm talking a further uplift to at least 800 ounces and ideally to the 1000 ounce target.

‘ AA not drilling for twelve months, bigger fish to fry unfortunately’

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This is an egregious lie.

That would most likely require administration and then going private, that does not happen without huge disruption, lost output and most of the management would walk. Not to mention the likes of Bill Trew and other big holders connected to the company losing everything. They won’t just stay on and work for AIMS.

You’re ignoring my point anyway probably because you don’t want to engage with it. AIMs have renegotiated this loan numerous times. They’ve had plenty of chances to do what you’re describing and they never have… it makes no sense why they would suddenly do it after operations improve and GRL can actually pay it back given more time.

Hence what matters most is production uplift during H2, even if it ends up more like August/Sept than now.

‘ I am sure the assets will be very profitable in January 2026 onwards - to Asian Investment Management’

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It is evident that AIM Services do not want the assets, that’s why they continually renegotiate the loan. They aren’t a gold operator, they are an investment management company (clue’s in the name). They want to be paid their loan in full and they’ll take interest where they can. Other than that their best bet is leaving geologists and mining experts to run the company to try and generate a return on their large shareholding.

If they pull GRL into administration they will never get their full return and lose 100% of their holding, so they won’t, unless it’s the only way they can get anything back.

GRL still has time , especially in this environment.

I also understand that until a positive rns comes i'm largely on my own here fighting against the more powerful tide.

I have 12% of my portfolio in here at an average of 1p. Wouldn't be catastrophic but would be painful if it goes to zero and it's something I accept is a possibility.

On the flip side it would take very little to bring me back in profit so still hopeful that the capex and expansion spend over the past six months starts to bear fruit soon.

No need to twist it. The sell off from Thursday pointed to a possible placing leak - all I've said it would be heartening if we get no rns Friday or Monday so we can at least start to assume that the sell off isn't due to any specific piece of bad news.

We still need next gold pour to show significant uplift.

Around £1m was due end of 2024 and close to £2m due in August.

@thebigshow, no probably not is the answer. Shishir got TGR into debt that they couldn't cover at maturity so debt funders aren't likely to commit to funding that is initially directed to covering TGRs own debt obligations rather than for growth.

This new management team will need to show acumen with these funds and if they do debt financing will open to them, but not before.

So far so good.

Here’s to some good news in the coming weeks.

Well like was said on Friday here's to there being no rns first thing tomorrow... If so there's a much higher chance that the sell off started with a wealth PI wanting out and then what followed was tons of others playing it safe and selling/reducing to derisk.

I'm sure most holders would prefer that management treat this as a JV shell company unless they are able to sell the Botswana licence that's adjacent to MMGs licences. Remember the assays from that licence showed much more positive results than the most recent results. It makes no sense to raise down here at such a low valuation just to do more prospecting and there's more than enough cash to just see the company through phase 1 of the JV (at which point they are well funded).

Been two and a half weeks now since last rns, expecting an update by mid June re Anglo's drilling plans for this dry season.

Let's look at the value of Argo's fleet.

There were 23000 miners at Helios and ~4500 in Baie Comeau. Argo have been trying to sell the machines previously hosted at Helios but only managed to flog 2000 for $550k. I think 18k have managed to find a home now in Canada/Merkle so let's call be kind and give them machines a value of $5m even though they are rapidly aging and will need fully replacing in 2027. Let's also give a value of $1.2m to the non Helios based machines.

Argo fleet value ~$6.2m, being kind we could call total assets including facilities of $10m?

So if an entity buys Argo out for say 5p, they are paying £35m/$48m for loss making assets worth $10m whilst also taking on $40m debt. Ie they won't!

Twohits, my guess is cash position something like £1.1m as of today, then arcm get a further £0.5m in November and then a further £0.5m + £4.5m at the end of the following year (assuming phase 1 finishes around November).

So they aren't flush with cash and will really have little choice but to hunker down until the end of next year and wait for the JV to deliver. The sooner a discovery is made the better.

It's true the debt looks large at the mo, 2266 troy ounces (including interest) so about $7.4m at current gold price. It's also true that it's with the largest shareholder so it's in their interest to renegotiate if GRL can turn themselves around.

We really need operational delivery in H2. If, for example, production can average just 800 ounces (20% below target) that would generate ~400 ounces of gold profit per month and so the debt could be rapidly paid down. If even half of the debt is paid down in 2025 renegotiation is inevitable and GRL would become a highly profitable miner with very modest and manageable debt. I suspect market cap would then be something like £25m vs a few £m debt.

It's an if though until we see concrete operational improvement via rns.

No RNS won’t mean all is dandy but it will likely mean that there’s no major bad news that some have got a whiff off.

At best management are simply holding off reporting til they get better sight of what pit 1 is delivering, and the silence has concerned enough holders to sell with the rest following as a derisking measure.