Member Info for HarChris

I followed Hummingbird and it’s a very different case. It had huge potential but racked up absolutely massive debts and like you say, fell before the bull market really kicked in.

They took on such scale in multiple jurisdictions and sadly failed to deliver on time. GRL is far less complex in comparison and it’s an incredibly low cost operation, so much so that they should be generating cash at just 350 ounces a month production.

There are similarities in terms of mismanagement sure but that’s about it. Hummingbird was well above my risk appetite besides a couple of trades I had whereas GRL isn’t. Although obviously that’s my own subjective opinion.

If you take the figures in the interims and then adjust for the money raised since and the reduction in debt following the CLN conversion + recent expansion acitvities it's pretty clear the next financials will show net assets of $10m or higher hence greater than today's mcap.

There's no doubt failure is being quite heavily priced in now and neither do I rule it out but having closely watched dozens of AIM companies that have unfortunately gone that way all were in far more trouble and in far deeper of a hole than GRL is today. And none of them were miners in the middle of a commodity bull run, that's for sure.

@BBN @CLSK make that three, think we all agree that proper communication would have prevented such fear and hence such share price erosion, assuming all is okay behind the scenes. Silence leads to most assuming the worst.

Have to hope it really is because they have funding under control and are laser focused on delivering operationally, which is what ultimately matters most.

Mismanagement or is funding under control*

I hear you and am by no means uber confident here, how could I be but I am unwilling to sell at such a low when we really are just one update away from a substantial rerate in this gold environment.

I still feel there’s every chance they have delayed an update because the figure for May coming out of pit 2 was low and they’d prefer to share a more comprehensive update once they have info following a month or two mining from the new pit.

I also take comfort that a month ago was the ideal time to get a placing away, whilst sentiment was still ‘okay’ here and yet they haven’t. Was it mismanagement is funding under control? That again we wait to find out soon.

I think some are missing that the fact that if management can just keep their head above water through the last of the rainy season there is a whole seven months left of this year to see the fruits of the work that went in re increasing stack agglomerated ore to target and the extensions to the leach pads and if at any moment we see that step change in production this rerates from such a lowly level.

That's not quite true.10th Jan - 10th February was a 522 ounce gold pour, that IS double. The next pour to 24th march at 599 ounces was more like 400 ounces per month but it's still a hefty step up from the 250 ounces they averaged in 2024.

Emma has stated a number of times this year that they are 'close' to 1000 ounces production. They have completed all the necessary steps to get there ie the cell pads and stacking of agglomerated ore and are now just waiting for the higher grade to come through.

Yes she has missed targets numerous times in the past but this time around there has been progress seen (a doubling of production) and if she has learnt from her errors having being in the hot seat all these years and is correct then in the coming months GRL will be an incredibly profitable company with an absolute bargain basement valuation.

That's the 'clear risk reward' here but it's understandable that the share price action has everyone concerned.

When covering African explorers like Rome Resources & Arc Minerals it often feels like only one is ever doing well - while the other is struggling with sentiment. For Arc, we are feeling what happens when you hand control of your primary asset to a major in exchange for a shedload of cash to explore it.

The rainy season is over. Anglo American is committed to spend $21 million - realistically - by the end of calendar 2026. And the vast majority of this capital is going to be in the form of drilling.

In the unlikely event they walk away, ARCM gets this in cash and drills themselves.

In the most recent RNS, Arc noted that targeting options for 2025 include Fwiji and Nyambwezu that have not been previously tested - and the new Cheyeza prospect. This is going to require more than one rig.

Anglo is exploring like a major, because it is. They have the time horizon and budget to slowly zero in on high grade targets. It's lower risk but slower. A junior going it alone will go down the higher risk route of trying to find the higher grades faster because they lack the resources to do it properly.

Chair Nick von Schirnding noted he looks ‘forward to reporting back to shareholders over the coming months in respect of our various drilling plans as the rainy season comes to an end.’

This has been widely misinterpreted - this means that the Chair is hoping to report back on drilling in the near future, not have us waiting months for plans to materialise.

These are some of the best copper exploration licences in the world, and unlike Rio Tinto, Anglo is 100% focused, and committed to copper.

On a side note, it’s interesting to see ARCM note that ‘depending on the timing of the proposed acquisition of the Chingola Project and associated scope of work, (we) will either commence drilling in Botswana or progress its work programme at Chingola.’

To my mind, this suggests that ARCM plans to sell the Botswana asset to MMG and use the proceeds to explore Chingola. We know Chingola was fiercely contested - and others may be happy to share in the expense.

It’s clear the company was expecting to announce news at Proactive last month, and then pulled out.

Junior explorers should not be the core of anyone’s portfolio, as there is always inherent risk. But these two have some of the best prospects out there - and when there’s share price weakness, then often, fortune favours the brave.

The biggest negative is pushing back their target for reaching cash flow break even to FY26 from FY25. In other words in Jan they were telling us that would happen within the year, now the broad target is within 18 months from now.

There will need to be an injection of cash now to get there without a doubt.

Volume has been incredibly high over the past three days though so it's possible that now some of that is IIs... 72m shares trades in three days.

Or it could be a handful of HNW pi's plus lots of derisking. Would prefer to see volume dry up though so we can be sure it's not anyone with better info than us.

The post period commentary is pretty light on substance though so I too expect a fall in SP today.

No Tommy you're wrong there, take a breath.

January had the same revenue figure and cash figure, this was known. Go check.

'So… back to the placing. I hope I’m not jinxing it but no RNS Friday or today. So far so good.'

At this point selling from mid last week is not a placing leak. That's not to say the next news will be good news, who knows, but it does suggest that operations are continuing behind the scenes at a cash generative level.

All about the gold grades from pit 1 in the coming months like you say. Fingers crossed.

That's interesting for sure, the hedge funds are probably in cahoots trying to keep it down as much as possible so they can exit. On low volume days they are in complete control whereas higher volume days like today and they don't have the firepower to stop a rise.

I'm hoping their closure over the coming weeks will be the impetus to get this back to 40p.

I partly agree but I think it's more likely they end up a takeover target if they get their shi* together and if not these assets will be up for grabs for nothing from administration. It's binary at this point. Boost production, start generating cash and begin expansion via a second dry plant and then we could well see offers of £50m from a much bigger miner with the balance sheet to get the most out of the assets.

Some great insights from the IMC, will share them later if no one else does…

The ONLY similarity is the name, that's not enough reason for a takeover lol

I think the talk of being acquired is for the birds personally, GRL have produced a record of 5100 troy ounces in a year, it's a minnow and not in the same league as a company like Greatland Gold.

There is potential here but that's all it is for now, until there is some evidence of that potential becoming a reality GRL won't be on anyone's radar. BBN made a point earlier about still being in the rainy season so perhaps we'll have to wait for H2 to see a bigger uplift.

For now the best we can hope for is generating cash and having everything in place to deliver the higher grades.

Confirmation that THX still completely unhedged as of today, full exposure to gold price which is great considering POG about to hit another all time high.

Https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

You need to register/log in and search Thor Explorations.