Member Info for HarChris

It's not a dead certain but it's increasingly likely.

A lot has happened since the end of the year that that cash figure is from. Firstly all 23000 machines at Helios need refurbishment which was to take a couple of months and I assume significant man power and cost. So for the first two months of the year revenue will have dropped 80%.

From ~March time the new agreement with Merkle kicks in for 40% of those machines. We have no idea of the terms but let's assume they are the same before (being kind). Add in the 2500 machines at Baie Comeau and they are back to about 60% of previous output. Also 2000 machines were sold for $550k so add that to the coffers.

Reasonable to assume ~$5m burnt over the first couple of months of the year and now a more modest cash burn leaving them strapped for cash as of today, four months into 2025.

So were the company expecting to hit 1000 ounces from pit 2? If we go back to November they say this: 'Mining continues in Pit 2 which is expected to be completed late January 2025, with preparation work starting in Pit 1 to commence production in Q1 2025.' and also 'Remain on schedule to meet the Company's target of 1,000 ounces gold production per month from January 2025, from 48,000 tonnes of stacked agglomerated ore per month.'

At what stage then was it known that pit 2 was producing the lower grade ore and pit 1 transition was needed before the higher pours were met? It's so frustrating seeing timeline missed time and time again whilst knowing that simply reaching it (1000 ounces) even 6 months late would lead to an immediate rerate.

29p? Why the hysteria?

They have gone from timely monthly operational updates to none whatsoever, that should tell you all you need to know.

They were struggling as it was before the hosting agreement ended, they are now all but finished. Out of cash imminently and debts dwarfing what the assets can sell for.

By all means take a gamble if you want but anyone claiming this is a solvent company is lieing to you. I wouldn’t be surprised if these shares never come out of suspension after tomorrow.

The cash position is a few $m more than I had pencilled in but that was Dec 31st and production will have fallen dramatically now as hosting agreement ended since and most machines offline in Jan through March. They also had to use considerable cash to refurbish the machines post immersion.

So we're talking very much running on fumes with likely barely anything left as of today.

So an estimate of about £6m quarterly revenue should break even? I imagine that will be achieved later this year, at least in the busy last quarter, but they really must be cutting it fine in terms of cash position currently despite the statement in the update?

Yeah wasn't suggesting a drop, just that it might take a month or so of mining pit 1 for the higher grades to come through to see close to 1000 oz.

As long as the monthly production stays cash generative (~400 dore ounces at current POG) then there's no immediate hurry for target to be hit.

Can’t help but laugh at those who said ‘they probably just forgot to post the Notice of Results’ - suspension was obvious.

I was asking someone with better knowledge than me this question just this morning and their conclusion was no but also taking the wording from the last rns they probably only began mining pit 2 in April so perhaps more like needing a bit more time for higher production to bleed through.

Looking for a similar pour in the next update with any increase being a bonus, but more important is the commentary around grades they are seeing and continued confidence of that 1000 ounces in the very near term.

It’ll almost certainly be around the 3.75p price they’ve tagged funding at. Give or take 0.5p.

Or they were emailed / picked up on it as share price suddenly crashed?

What we know at the very least is that from Jan 10th to 24th March 1121 ounces of dore were poured. In H1 2024, 1333 ounces were produced so almost as much was poured in ten weeks this year as the first 26 weeks last year.

This is well below the target still as we all know but it does at least show a significant improvement being seen so far in 2025, alongside the 33% higher gold price, and should provide belief that things are at least on the right track now.

That’s what I mean - I assume shares will be suspended this week.

The share price does show just how little notice investors are taking of Emma’s timelines and targets at this stage and understandably so, they are just wilfully thrown out there and missed time and time and time again.

The share price hit 2p late last summer despite being cash strapped with a near term placing inevitable, despite still only being at 250 ounces a month with a gold price of $2500/oz, despite yet having the CLN sorted. All because folk liked the positive outlook management were painting.

It means even bigger upside if they do go and surprise and finally deliver on what we’ve been waiting for a while now.

They'd be in a spot of bother again if it wasn't for the supportive gold price, let's be honest, whilst this ramp up is on going, But the gold price means they'll be generating ~$1.35m revenue per month, even at just 500 dore ounces. That's cash generative for sure (possibly close to half a $mil).

It's not enough to make much of a dent on the debt but clearly any improvement from here and that will be seen. And 1000 ounces means enormous cash flow, greater than today's mcap by some margin.

So it's all to play for over the coming months.

Yes I think so. No notice of results which is unusual so I'm assuming they aren't actually expecting to release anything tomorrow.

Also this short video from early February: https://vimeo.com/1066188585?msockid=

Does it mean they are going to execute this time around? Of course not for sure but Emma is obviously confident and has felt that now is the time to do a bit of extra promotion (this video early Feb, other video March) with expectation of significant improvement in operations around now/mid year.

It does at least put to bed the slight niggly feeling that Garat might have been part of a wider conspiracy to have Mobico taken private, or the like.

And it was a bit scary holding into results but no further skeletons hiding in the closet at least.

Of course. The debt risk is the reason the share price has crashed, what’s the point of doling out money only to increase that risk further?

Obvious to all that dividend would be pulled.

That’ll give us a bounce first thing at least. Results look solid on the whole.

Nice timing just as gold takes off again...