Member Info for HarChris

Just to continue with this ridiculous Tesla comparison… after missing expectations by a country mile and proving its completely off the growth track now it's now up pre market…

So that $400m quarterly revs now gives a forward looking PE of 500. Yes 500! $1.6B yearly profit and $800B market cap.

Again just for illustration but it’s so totally absurd for a company with so many problems to be valued so highly whilst we, here, see a sell off after gold retraces slightly off a ridiculous all time high.

Tesla just reported profit of $400m for Q1 which means they are on track for roughly 10 times THXs profit in 2025. At $770B market cap Tesla is valued over 2000 times greater than THX.

I know, I know just a bit of fun but as we're talking PE ratios that's a 200 times greater multiple!

Well Greenstone had already sold 15.1m shares very recently to Starboard so it's not a huge surprise they are selling the rest they hold. Not sure it's great news that the other large holder Fratelli also wants out too though?

Would have been helpful for management to give some context here. Why the rush to exit?

Have to be out by end of April with seven days notice so RNS tomorrow? This does feel possibly like the end now.

I think I said that if they can turn operations around and get the share price moving with it then it might prove worthwhile to raise additional funds and fast track the expansion in reaching the much higher grades of +6g/t.

The warrants and options executing would also raise a fair bit so an additional placing may not be necessary now cash generation could do it alone from this $3400/oz gold price.

Great post Bobby, worth everyone properly digesting to gauge where we're likely headed in terms of Segilola.

Another factor that is underappreciated is the lack of warrants and options. It's almost unheard of on AIM for their to be no placing risk whatsoever and no extra shares coming from anywhere.

And very impressive that in four years since LSE ipo the total voting rights have risen by barely 5%.

Let's hope the addled RFK doesn't come to the conclusion that all cancers should be treated through intermittent fasting rather than the traditional chemo/radiotherapy/immunotherapy.

Not so much surpassed but at/around analyst’ forecasts… although they are only factoring in Segilola and its initial mine life.

We await the Douta PFS and mine life extension plan to be able to fully ascertain the upside but all indications are that both will add considerable long term value. And as Douta project is far bigger than Segilola one would hope we’ll see a NPV greater than $500m which (theoretically) far more than doubles the current targets based on that alone.

Slow and steady wins the race here - THX on its way to 40p.

Looks like new all time high for antimony too. What a set up.

Me? I mean I really can’t say for sure but I think 2 years at 85k ounces per year does feel like a bare minimum. And Segun has previously said, in passing, that there could be as many as ten years added.

So it’s at least reasonable to assume we’ll see a few years where Douta and Segilola are producing ounces together.

We need to see clearly that the shift to pit 1 is bringing through the higher grades and then we’re away. That’s it really.

To be fair the valuation has actually reached $300m now and we are likely to see about $150m net profit this year so it's a PE of 2.

There are a few factors that mean we aren't going to see a PE inline with FTSE 100 companies of up to 15 but certainly a PE of 5 or 6 is reachable once we have clarity on Douta and Segilola mine life extension. If there's visibility of $100m+ profits for years to come then hopefully an mcap of $500m-$600m & possibly a fair bit higher will come into view.

And in the short term we should see a further sentiment boost to as everything continues to align perfectly.

I suspect like with most companies comms will be ramped up when they hit the inflection point they are pushing for, this increase production target, and until then it’s wait and hope (with the fact the gold price allows for greater and greater margin for error).

Well they use two different figures for the Madagascar capacity : 'primary mining and processing in Madagascar where the Group operates two key projects, Sahamamy and Vatomina with a combined installed final production nameplate capacity of 30,000tpa' yet in the table below it states 18k for both.

In reality Sahamamy hasn't been operating for yonks and the PCUs have been transferred from there to Vatomina to attempt to get the latter to its nameplate capacity by the end of this year so probably best to work with 18k for now - achieve that and obviously it'll be clear progress though.

Going to be an interesting H2 for sure although the challenge for this management team is immense.

No a TO isn’t a realistic scenario, there have been too many operational issues in Madagascar and a lot funding is still needed so at the sort of valuation that would be needed to see a TO approved it won’t be attractive. Having shunned the typical route to production (PFS, DFS, FiD) there’s a lot to prove still as to the actual potential at Vatomina/Sahamamy and until there’s consistent production that will remain a major unknown.

As for the valuation we should work off ~300m total shares now. When all is eventually said and done I’m sure there will be even more than that but that’s a rough figure for what I imagine we’ll see within about a year after most of the conversions are complete so to get back to 10p a share would equal £30m/$40m mcap.

I haven't got access to the broker notes now but I think that 37p is based on Segilola's initial mine life alone with nothing included for all the future ounces that will be found + Douta (like you say). So sure we're almost fairly valued here if the company has nothing beyonf this initial five year mine life but if you think each additional added year at Segilola will add 5-10p and hence ~15p-30p likely and that Douta could have a whopping $500m+ project NPV then we're barely scratching the surface today at 35p.

And who knows what other opportunities will come along for a soon to be highly cash rich company like this.

I agree with that sort of calculation, that’s now the base case but just imagine that instead the 1000 ounces target is reached ie ~820 Troy ounces at $1500/oz all in margin x 12 giving ie $14.8m PBT. That’s what we’re all hoping for in the very near future.

Update next week should give us a clear signal.

Well my ‘this is a case of when not if’ comment earlier looks like coming true, immediately!

I knew we wouldn’t have to wait for summer (or ‘late summer’) to bounce considerably but wasn’t sure the rally would start so soon - fab day!

And yet nothing on the pre concentrate circuit which was meant to be commissioned this month and take production to 1600t of contained tin, a 60% increase. He expects us to get excited by new plans when the originals that were exciting enough (and funded) are no longer even being mentioned.