Member Info for HarChris

Yeah, THX really is low risk at this valuation thanks to the enormous margins it enjoys, it’s a cash cow over the coming years no matter what.

We still need positive news on a number of fronts to enjoy much, much higher upside but can’t imagine there’s much downside from here unless something hits us unexpectedly.

It is mere correlation not causation. And actually the opposite. Previously there was always a chance of data landing any day that could blow the doors off, or so we thought. Now it’s signposted for later in 2025 and clearly not landing tomorrow, or next week. So no fomo for data release.

A much stronger argument is that wider market fears and uncertainty are eroding confidence even further and traders are out til the next CLN payment and will be back in closer to actual data being released / when they feel a deal could be imminent.

If the share price is at lows in the run up to P1b data then that’s different and your point would be valid but your argument (loss of confidence in data) is invalid in such a market that has shifted to very near term trading and with no p1b data imminent.

A small private placing that brings in a sticky II or two and covers at least the rest of the CLN payments in 2025 (say £10m) would do the share price the world of good. So I'm hoping the 'rumours' (whatever they are) are true.

Something I’ve come to learn is America is the richest country in the world mainly because they care the most about money and being the richest country in the world. They value work, ‘productivity’, ‘the grind’ far higher than those in Europe and they value leisure, free time, hobbies, culture, quality produce, fine wine etc etc etc much less.

BTC has gone from 86.6k to 83.3k since US markets closed so it’s no surprised Mara falls with it.

'In line with strategic priorities, the Company continues to focus on its plan to reduce ENDURIUM product costs in order to open up as broad a market opportunity as possible whilst supporting improved product margins. The Company has achieved a 24% cost reduction in ENDURIUM since launch via value engineering, supply chain enhancement and performance improvements and anticipates further cost reductions to be realised in line with internal forecasts.'

Considering Endurium had healthier margins than the VS3 to start with a further 24% cost reduction is meaningful - I'm sure they won't be far off being able to produce these next gen batteries profitably now and certainly once we start taking into account that enormous step change in scale coming.

It's now highly unlikely GRL goes bust. The debt is owed to the largest shareholder, AIMSL, and it's in their interest to continue to support GRL through this period. Successfully navigating through these next few months will see GRL capable of paying AIMSL the physical gold they are owed (win) and the share price recover substantially (win).

I'd argue debt risk has been reduced significantly but multibagging from here requires stellar execution and really making the most of this gold environment, generating substantial cash, enough to build the second wash plant, push on past 1000 ounces and pave the way for debt financing for the major expansion and going at the high 6g/t order.

So the next couple of months are crucial if we're ever going to see the sky high upside.

I hear you. There’s many others like you that sold that pop on here to warn us so the bb ends up pretty balanced to be honest.

As for not trusting them, well, there’s a very hefty option package sitting there for management if they do pull this off. They need to get well past 2p to make the first 50% attractive to execute and well past 3p for the rest (alongside consistently producing 650+ oz per month and sub $1500/oz aisc) so they are incentivised to do well here.

I noticed you wrote this four months ago, and understandably so: ''I don't know but something is going to give IMO. Company needs to find more money and where from.''

Yet here we are with no raise and revenue increasing considerably month on month. If you look at previous cash burn they'd have been forced to raise well before now but actually (modest) cash generation is likely happening now and GRL are more than washing their face allowing them to continue this ramp up unabetted.

Don't get me wrong I'm not ignorant to the risks here but they are vastly reduced in this gold environment/ current production level than they were when you wrote the above four months ago.

That's only half true. What's going on now is a major change in fortunes that means that cash is starting to flow into the business - they WERE essentially insolvent, they were on the verge of going under, they now are seeing revenue multiples of what it was before.

Reminder, revenue up to recent March gold pour will be greater than all of H1 last year. This is with production far short of what it will be when the higher grade ore feeds through and with January gold price a fair bit lower than today.

Revenue in Q1 double what it was last year, revenue in Q2 will likely be at least treble last year's whole half year and then from there multiples if consistency is achieved.

Again, this was a business that was on the very edge and has rode its luck enormously but the outlook is far different today, the market just hasn't caught on yet / is too risk-off to buy until higher production and cash generation is officially confirmed. In this environment the share price likely stays depressed and then rerates in one fell swoop, all being well.

Here's an interesting thought experiment:

Let's imagine last summer as the gold price started looking perky and rose to $2450/oz you decided to take a punt on GRL, at between 1.5p and 1.8p. You know it's risky, you know they are out of cash and will have to raise soon to keep operating, you've just had results that showed production still at a lowly ~220 ounces per month but there's a vague target of 1000 ounces in six months time, you know that the CLN deadline is looming and needs to be sorted amicably as well as the gold loan to be renegotiated once again. But you take a punt at some price between 1.5p and 1.8p and switch off.

Today is the day you go to check how your investment is doing... Wow! First of all gold carried on north without barely pausing and is at a whopping $3130/oz. You see the CLN was sorted and converted at 3.25p into shares with the overhang likely cleared as shares were issued some time ago, you see the gold loan has been renegotiated again with the interest well under control and finally you check what level the production is at... Okay, a 2.5 fold increase... not the 1000 ounces targeted but a good way there and with a bit more digging see that this level was achieved whilst exhausting the last of the low grade ore in the current pit with transition to the next pit imminent and (theoretically) the increased grade to reach that target near term.

Well that's a relief you think, the gamble paid off. I wonder how much I'm up from my summer trade? 50%? 100%? Maybe even 200%? Wait, what? Down 40%? You've got to be kidding me?! What am I missing?!

________________________

That's the irrationality of what's going on right now in a nutshell.

Well the reality is we’re at about 50% of the target as it is whilst exhausting the last of the low grade ore from the current pit and that by itself is minimum break even at this gold price and likely generating cash as of today at $3100/oz.

Emma said a few weeks ago that 1000 ounces isn’t far off but the luxury is we don’t have to fully believe that, we just have to believe that at a minimum the pit transition see higher grades come through and therefore enough scale to see profitable amounts of gold being poured each month. And if she does finally deliver on this 1000 ounce then that’s the jackpot.

Despite numerous missed targets previously there is reason to believe management are slowly getting there, for the reasons ID laid out below.

Phase 1 ends (on/before) 180 days after third anniversary of Effective Date, so that’s 10th May 2027. But practically speaking the drilling season is late April to December, so Anglo will surely be aiming to complete the $24m exploration drilling next year during that season… by December 2026 latest.

In other words $21m to be sunk over the next 18 months and ARCM receive $666k ($1m Unico) in November this year and also the $5.33m ($8m Unico) at the same sort of time in 2026 (end of phase 1).

We’re relatively close now to finding out if this JV is the real deal or not.

Majority of trades today are for just 1 share - odd trading behaviour.

It’s palpable how much some want GRL to fail... I suspect they hate the management, Emma especially, and don’t think she deserves this second bite at the cherry which, to be frank, is almost entirely gold price related rather than ingenuity. But that’s the market for you, a lot of it is luck and then about taking the chance when it presents itself.

And that’s exactly where we are today, with the mother of all opportunities for a company that likely wouldn’t have even survived otherwise.

Soft Tissue Sarcoma is heterogeneous, it varies greatly from subtype to subtype and cancer to cancer and so selecting patients is a delicate matter. It also means most of the patients going through MSK won't be eligible for this 1b.

You keep saying 'what do I know?' 'what I don't understand...' etc, perhaps that sums it up.

JFK, of course it's stupid. Every STS patient passing through MSK isn't immediately signed up and on the AVA6000 1b trial and therefore we have proof that Tap doesn't really think AVA6000 works.. and that's that I'm afraid guys... game over.

I mean it's the most stupid argument I've seen on here in a while.

I imagine Doc's constantly thinking about the optics and how to change sentiment here. It wouldn't surprise me, now they are fully funded, if he goes for the opposite approach, underplaying timelines and then claiming a significant beating of expectations in the months ahead.

Nobody wants to buy the miners is a fair comment relative to what you would expect in such a gold environment, miners have significantly underperformed relative to what you would expect with gold racing to $3100/oz. They are still, on the whole, rising / certainly beating the rest of the market but they are underperforming, especially the higher risk small cap miners which are essentially a leveraged gold trade.

Risk-off trading permeating even the gold sector hence why this isn’t moving but an increase in production in the coming months derisks things here considerably and we’ll be off to the races.

I’ll occasionally respond when I think it’s useful to, or helps me personally understand why certain negative arguments are weak.

I won’t respond when trolling is undeniable through repetition like the below.