Member Info for HarChris

Muck’s the best poster on here by a country mile, he/she doesn’t deserve that comment Billy - you can do one.

I’m amazed you popped back on here after your recent appalling calls - you have absolutely no class Noel.

It makes no material difference today and if it improves the economics of the PFS then it’ll have a positive medium term impact but obviously a bit disappointing to push it back again to, as of today, some unknown date.

Might make for an even busier April of news but the wait goes on tediously.

Look at 3 and 4 (ATH)

https://x.com/minerdeck/status/1903793974382338210?s=46

Seeing gold fervour amping up now with talk of $4K gold being a possibility this year. We all know we don’t need to see POG go any higher but the more it rises the surer we can be that the average price across the year and beyond is going to deliver supernormal profits.

I’m starting to think with a tailwind this could rally more than I previously thought possible.

I won't lie, I'm a bit disappointed to still be waiting for news this late into the quarter but I wonder if it's due to a change in strategy re buybacks, since the share price is already moving on its own.

The good news is that all of it will land and is being compressed into an even shorter timeframe. With the SP nowabove the stubborn resistance and sentiment towards gold miners finally turning we really could be in for a dramatic few weeks/ months ahead.

'TheOldTrader highlights all the opportunities - but at the end of the day sales are required and at a profit - so do we run out of money before enough (profitable) sales come through? The million pounds question.'

_______

Absolutely and it's why the share price is 9p, the answer is still unknown. Eventually when we have the answer the share price will be more like 90p, or close to zero, depending on which way it goes. It's why it's important to do all the research you can at this stage and decide for yourself which way you think it's going to go. I'd start with the latest Investor Meeting Company interview from October and also this article from Oak Bloke: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/to-invinity-and-beyond

Personally I think this is the time to make a big decision... the focus is totally on bringing up the gross margin and scaling to the point where they can fulfil their pipeline profitably. If they are to be one of the big players in the LDES space it's going to happen soon and the inflection point should happen comfortably within the most recent £58m funding round. And if so the reward will be significant from here.

First target should be simply getting back to the placing price of 9.75p - amazing to think that’s a 40% gain for those who have been buying below 7p.

I think that’s nonsense to be honest.

Anyway here’s the history of IES’ placings:

12/20 - £22.5m raised at 175p a share


12/21 - £29m raised at 100p a share

02/23 - £21.5m raised at 32p a share

05/24 - £57.8m raised at 23p a share

This recent one was absolutely colossal and was a statement of intent, an attempt to ensure it’s the last. I see a lot of value at this mcap considering the £130m+ investors have coughed up at far higher prices.

As I pointed out earlier on X GRL pumped to 1.75p in October at a far, far riskier time. Back then they had just announced 1,333 ounces produced in H1 and were miles away from reaching a cash generative level with POG at $2575/oz (although were aiming for 1000 ounces from January). Worst of all they had £2.75m CLN maturing in a few month's time which put GRL in real danger of diluting to death at a significant discount just to stay in business, as this quote shows in an RNS a month later:

'Whilst the Company expects to be able to renegotiate or otherwise refinance the CLN, there can be no guarantee that this will be achieved. The Board is taking appropriate professional advice regarding the company's trading position in the event that a solution cannot be achieved and the final payment under the CLN cannot be repaid or rescheduled prior to 9 December 2024.'

What's happened since? Well solid improvement has been seen in production, with more than a doubling in production in December vis a vis H1 average and almost trebling in January vis a vis H1 average but even more importantly the CLN was converted at 3.25p a share! An unbelievable result given the predicament GRL was in. If they were forced into a placing instead we'd have been looking at 1p a share tops, prob lower so perhaps 4 times as many shares issued for the same outcome... and also gold has boomed since and is trading above $3000/oz.

We all want to see consistency in reporting but this is a gift at around 1p.

I'm not convinced bitcoin mining is the most technically challenging of businesses, I don't think Argo failed for any other reason than they failed to raise enough equity when they had the opportunity in 2021/22. They raised just £26.8m when they had an mcap of £750m. Same again with the nasdaq listing and then through the rest of 2022 with the share price above £1 they took on a mass of debt at high interest instead of more equity because man of the people Peter Wall promised shareholders to stop diluting them - in the middle of the biggest hyped up bull market ever.

The North American miners simply beat them at scale with no near term debt obligations to worry about through the 2023/2024 bear market.

I know there's risks but I see a rise in gold above $3000/oz and GRL back to 1.1p as a further buying opportunity and will continue to add where I can. How often does one come across a company capable of growing revenues like GRL? There is a feasible route to 1000 ounces per month (and higher with another dry plant) and then on to the higher grade so 6000 ounces per month ie ~$15m revs per month/ $180m per year.

A company with the capability of growing revenue organically to that sort of level without further funding that's valued at $12 market cap is the sort of stock that can change your life if it goes right. An operational update landing one or two weeks later than expected doesn't change that.

HPC, remember when Argo was supposedly going that direction? At least it was a sensible idea but now they are silent and investment case appears to be this: (i) hosting agreement ends with Galaxy, (ii) spend millions converting/refurbishing machines so they can be used elsewhere, (iii) host 69% machines at Canadian facility / new hosting partner after 3-4 month period. (iv) sell other 31% of machines if possible (9% sold so far)

So it's just an expensive effort to just about keep the business going on an even smaller scale.

It’s uncommon amongst goldies to report in the fashion that GRL has started to, ie monthly, and it’s not something they’ve ever committed to as far as I’m aware so there’s a limit to how much criticism this one week ‘late’ update should incur… But I largely agree, consistency in comms is important.

Well the delay in monthly results certainly feels like holding on for better news to share relating to post-period progress.

I think most of us will be pretty relaxed given the even greater leeway that $3030/oz gold affords.

Too early, obviously that’s not correct. 45% increase in BTC price and 510% increase in difficulty levels out at about 2.5 to 3 times less efficient. That’s why Argo went from gross margins of 85% to more like 30%. And more like 10% now at a guess factoring hosting prices and depleting machines.

Gross margins like that for a business like this is untenable.

There were a lot of missteps but it's also the case that bitcoin mining is way, way less profitable now than it was back in 2021. Go back to March 2021 for example when BTC rise to just shy of $60k, back then total hash rate was less than a fifth of what it is today. So comparing those two points BTC has risen about 45% and difficulty has increased 510%. It's eleven times less efficient to mine one bitcoin today vs the March 2021 peak based on these two metrics, before you add in higher power costs. Now if Argo had the funds to invest in more efficient machines they could have pulled those margins back up a bit but as it is, for miners with older machines, the game is up. There is no business case.

It sounds very similar to Dopesick which is a good show too, check it out if you haven’t. It’s also about OxyContin and the Sackler’s/Perdue Pharma’s dirty tactics to get the nation hooked.

You either missed my last post or have the comprehension of a child (by your spelling and exclamation marks most likely the latter). I am rather positive on the whole about BRES and would probably be invested today if I had the funds available, which I don't, but will continue to research more and buy in as and when I choose to sell elsewhere, hence the need for conviction. As I said earlier I can't fault the management here, Mike is top notch, and Bres is highly likely to be a roaring success.

Ps you probably won't listen but you do this BB no favours, unlike the rest on here who are actually capable of supporting their investment through facts and critical reasoning

Greyw, the investment case is really quite simple for me. By the end of May we will have the very robust Douta PFS (much of the heavy lifting done towards DFS), we will have had an announcement re the buyback scheme or received a sizeable dividend, we'll have had the next set of drill results from Segilola and be close to the updated MRE and mine life plan, we will have had the 2020 annual report that shows the updated debt free balance sheet and net profit of $90m-$95m, we will have had the Q1 update and also the Q1 financials showing ~$40m net profit for the quarter and most likely some sort of update from the federal government re Osun State. If the gold price is still above $3000/oz I find it hard to imagine all of that could have come and gone and still be stuck at this lowly mcap @ 25p a share.

I don't know if it will require all of that news to see the share price at a more sensible price of say 50p, or whether a big move will happen much sooner than end of May but I am as confident as I can be that it's coming in the not too distant future.