Member Info for HarChris

BM is key and of course they might perfectly execute at BM and become immediately cash generative and self funding but the tax loss sale is what properly puts any cash doubts to bed.

Hence why I say landing that deal, whether it be this month or after another extension, significantly derisks the investment. Will also allow for a more aggressive plan re other projects which would be great in this gold environment.

Not to mention the price those CLN shares were converted at (multiples of current share price).

Announce another successful ramp up in production and this could go ballistic - I’m in for more.

I think most of us would agree that management were very clever / sneaky (you choose) surrounding the commentary in the run up to the raise, we’d be kidding ourselves if we said they played it straight. And yet that’s the harsh reality of AIM, if they hadn’t we know full well a clearly signposted raise would have trashed the share price and culminated in a deeply discounted placing (sub 0.2p I think).

So it was necessary but equally they won’t get away with such tactics again hence now it really is essential to execute successfully, we aren’t going to see any mark up based on hope/promises again.

Management claims they are funded for all activities in 2025, that also buys them at least six months to get some sort of sale over the line re MGA. It’s a straight forward case of either back them to deliver or not at this stage.

Ps anyone fancy estimating how much cash Argo has left from its £4.2m (gross) raise on 2nd December? With such a harsh drop in revenue and all the associated cost of trying to refurbish the machines I'd guess they are running on fumes now, perhaps £1m/$1.2m left?

Well I've just decided to double up on my small gold play GRL instead of going the MARA route for now. Let's monitor on here how they compare in a month or so's time, should be interesting! If all goes to plan (it never does) i'll move it to Mara at a later date as I have a feeling BTC remains rocky for a little while longer whilst the unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty plays right in to gold's hand.

That's my rationale anyway.

There’s no doubt it’s worked in THXs favour to have some of these issues whilst the gold price was lower so now we’re sat here with 250k ounces of the initial mine life still remaining at a $2k margin. Do the math!

As it happens FY ounces sold has been:

2022 - 92k

2023 - 73.3k

2024 -~85k (unaudited)

Fairly consistent, especially taking in this year’s guidance.

Last year THX got a bit lucky it must be said. Issues befell them in the first half of the year which meant the gold was still in the ground, they then went on to produce more in the second half of the year and sold that gold at far higher prices.

Going forward conservative targets set that will be met is the name of the game. 85k-95k target this year means if no unforeseen issues 95k will be achieved.

At a $2k net margin both top and bottom end produce insane profit.

At more or less the all time high on the TSX.

This is a leveraged play on gold, you would expect a small cap miner to dwarf the returns of buying gold in a gold bull market, just as the opposite be true in a gold bear market.

Take SRB for example, that’s up about 200% over the past 12 months, 400% from its 2023 lows.

With the move I think comes next THX can match Serabi’s share price movement over similar timeframes.

I am now as confident as I've ever been that we are close to a rerate, so much so that i'll stick my neck on the line and say that this time next month (/ at the latest five weeks from now) the picture will look completely different.

It's been a trying time holding and seeing such drab share price action relative to the excitement of the wider gold space but it is coming and the patience is going to pay off, especially against such a phenomenal gold backdrop

If you have any updated info that would be great, would love to see it, but an old article which now isn’t relevant and one that refers to artisanal illegal mining, not large scale regulated mining, adds nothing to the conversation.

Actually I’ll keep it private for now but let’s just say Douta PFS, divi/buyback and further Segilola drill results (close now to update resource and MLE plan) will all be with us v soon. As should be the fed committee report although that’s technically out of management hands so whilst it should come this month it can’t be guaranteed.

Schmidt happy to share a bit more privately if you have twitter but less keen on broadcasting publicly, what with the amount of trolling going on. You got twitter?

I got my most positive update from Segun to date.

Whilst obviously none of it is inside info I won’t go into detail on here out of respect… but suffice to say he has confirmed that all major news items we are hoping for in Q1 will be released on time - that’s four updates to come before March is out.

News rich period.

They’re already over half way to that production target so should already be profitable, just waiting on an announcement of that. So generating cash as it is but reach 1k/pm ounces this quarter as targeted and they’ll be generating $2m profit per MONTH and are valued at sub £10m…

Not without risk but v high reward potentially when it takes off.

Take a look at GRL, Goldstone Resources.

Historically loss making but close to reaching 1000 ounces per month production. They should be able to break even at around $900k revs per month, at current gold price they might just reach three times that break even figure soon.

A lot of leeway built in and still this £9m mcap company will be profitable, get it right and they’ll be exceeding their mcap in FCF.

Big overhang of issued shares to reduce debt has dragged share price right down to this low level but overhang almost over, hence my entry at 1.05p. Anything below 1.5p looks good to me.

Starting to look for small scale low mcap gold producers… some of them are now capable of ramping up to a level where profit can exceed their market cap. Let me know if you want me to share any.

That is an interesting article and highlights the very destruction that illegal unregulated artisanal miners.

At least the regulated publicly listed companies have a strict ESG remit and commit a lot to local initiatives. Thor has won awards and gained recognition for their own environmental work but I hope they do plough back more of this profit into local causes now.

Maybe it’s just to make myself feel better but it’s something I’ve pushed time and again to management and they claim to be listening.

Made the point for me.

First allegation late September, this article in October. Now? Nothing whatsoever. The news cycle has moved on, they didn’t get away with what they tried and that is likely it.

Where we differ is that I believe the lack of news actually suggests there’s very little to conclude here. And that’s what Segun implied to me also.

In other words Osun made all these allegations and said they were closing down the mine etc and the federal government stepped in and slapped them down. Sure there’s some committee report being conducted but realistically THX management will know the outcome as they are close to the federal officials and the reality on the ground is that they are full steam ahead re Segilola mine life extension and now investing more heavily in the lithium side of things. They have zero concerns about the jurisdiction.

Segun went as far as saying to me that no news is good news on this front. I asked if we will definitely see some conclusion to this event and he just said as long as the committee report is published then yeah but even that wasn’t a definite. If they’ve completely moved on with nothing to add we might not even get a proper conclusion that some are waiting for, it will just disappear into the ether and eventually everyone will accept that.