PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
I have to say simplyme that if i make a good chunk out of this business before DB announces his grand plan to spend 400m wisely on another mine i'll be long gone. We barely made it out alive after trying to manage 120m or whatever.
I agree with you though, DB has said that if he has to he'll have a go at the project alone which scares every bone in my body.
Betts baby? If someone makes an offer it will end up with the shareholders for a vote. CIG are the main shareholder - would they want to sell for 17p having sat through all this turmoil and knowing it might make them 50m a year in 2 years time or something ( might make a lot more - who cares - insert your own figure if needed ). Betts holds very few shares.
Shanta was different, lots of funds said that they had very little chance of seeing the price reflect the value of the business. This was lots of smaller holdings and they just didn't have the appetite for a business who had depressed shares and low liquidity. CIG is completely different they are a large holder owned privately with an eye for actual business performance.
Every business has its price mind, no idea what price CIG would leave this for right now you'd have to ask them. I suspect they have the appetite for the long haul.
Regarding Dugbe the NPV is well known so it's hard to say what price it's currently valued at by all of us investors but it sure seems like no attention is bein paid to it. It's worth a considerable amount of money to someone one day...
If i had to value this for a moment and we have an EV of around 180m sterling ( i've very roughly converted the debt in dollars to £ and added to our MC today )...
And the debt repaid is worth equity which it is + more as the risk subsides then this is still very cheap today if you believe they will meet the debt repayments this year ( or close ). The MC could be up 50% by christmas easily on this basis alone ( again turning the debt in dollars to £ ). So your money is working very hard right now and that's without Dugbe.
Agreed but this not only confirms what people highly suspected but also cements the operation going forward now at exactly the right time. And on the 10m loan side of things the only reason CIG have lent the money over such a short time frame is that it's going to be super easy to pay it back. Everyone has a vested interest in this working now and they're all working. CIG want their equity stake up and business performing well, Coris want their loans repaid, Corica want their money and also the contract for the next however many years.
Any scare stories that appear now are ignoring the significant and obvious economic interests the businesses all have to make this work. Now that pride and ego are sort of out of the way regarding this dispute you can build on some goodwill and get everyone paid - including us - over time.
In this sense it is far from neutral and at exactly the right time it seems re current gold prices.
I can't see how anyone relatively rational sees this RNS as neutral with gold prices seemingly stuck way above 2000 dollars an ounce but i can't be bothered to listen to loads of strange numbers today.
If this was your business entirely and you'd got to work today and the whole fleet were now working to support you on a mine with great grades coming up imminently with gold where it is you'd be absolutely delighted you were back on track.
I highly doubt you'd feel ' neutral ' about anything today.
It’s a business that owns other businesses as well as its own interests. The NAV is a valuation of all of that. These things it owns are worth quite a bit probably. Nothing goes pop this is real life not a cartoon.
It’s a small cap company that’s very illiquid and small caps haven’t done well for the last few years neither has lots of other U.K. stuff. I can’t say if it ever pops who knows but JV has shown he can run a business and increase the value of the things it owns.
Sounds like proper investing to me which is what I try and do anywhere I can find something worth buying.
Jwhitw - who else is responsible for the mining then? What are these posts where people just mention something then suggest nothing then assume the worst.
As Dan said you'd have to ask Corica why they are not sticking to the mining plan, moving the dirt and getting us to where we hoped to be under the contract which they signed.
Yes they will. I had a period where we were into the bank for quite a bit and had to keep extending and re-financing things to make ends meet. We were waiting for business to pick up etc which we were sure would come. Every time our overdraft got extended or we organised payment holidays or whatever they charged us for the ' new ' facility. This is how banks make their money - they're a bank.
They never once suggested taking over our capital intensive business that they don't understand, can't run and wouldn't want to sell in a hurry to the lowest bidder which would take ages and result in huge problems.
Id guess that Coris will be flexible if the base case is still very strong and progress is being made. 77m dollars is due in 2024 and 9m has been paid already. What if they get 50m back this year and roll the remainder into next year? Sounds perfectly reasonable to me and risk-free for both parties ( as long as progress is made going forward now ).
Sounds far more reasonable than ' Coris will take the business they already own and wipe out shareholders ' or ' another equity raise at 5p is coming '. Why on earth would the bank want a huge controlling stake in a multi jurisdictional mining company!?
This is all dependant on Hummingbird continuing to deliver more at Yan and little by little at Kouroussa too. I agree if their production goes backwards now they could be in big trouble. Regarding CIG stake i'd say its more likely half of it gets sold at a profit to whoever wants to help fund Dugbe later in the year or 2025.
I think really importantly too and i've heard this many many times either from them direct or in this presentation Coris are being genuinely supportive. That's absolutely key here and should give us enough time to just get that bit further and crack on.
Dugbe is a monster and gets me very excited if we can survive long enough to see it !
I was thinking of asking something similar. A long time ago now ( 18 months or so i think ) DB said there was a strategic review of Dugbe underway but we've not heard anything about why that did or didn't lead to anything. And yes i agree it is worth a huge amount of money atm.
I doubt you'll get a straight answer on the matter because we don't ever get straight answers to questions raised on the calls but im going to submit a similar question as well as one about the cash burn.
So...
q4 2023
0.2m dollars adjusted ebitda and net bank of 134m dollars including gold.
q1 2024
7.1m dollars adjusted ebitda with net bank 135m dollars including gold. Between q4 2023 and these figures though around 25m dollars of the placing has been used to ' strengthen the balance sheet '. Given that the burn is probably worse at the start of the quarter than the end given their improvements i'd very roughly estimate that the cash burn monthly is less than 1/3 of the part of the ebitda that was cashflow and the 25m from the raise. So maybe it's 5m cash burn per month and getting better all the time? Hard to say and i'd welcome any other constructive views from people on this. If it is getting better though and Coris are understanding, gold is flying and Yan q2 should be better as planned and Kouroussa gets better too then this could very well be the beginning of a non-dilutive period where we get back on track bit by bit.
Wish we had a proper cashflow but q1 ebitda 7.1m dollars, 9m dollars debt repair but 6.3m dollars debt drawn down. Kouroussa should get better little by little now even if Corica dont come back to work. I am surprised and whilst the debt might need to get put back or reworked slightly this looks promising.
I don't think the hedge is the source of all our trouble lol. Remember in 2020 Hummingbird looked like a great business, gold was high at the time and they just had Yan and no debt. Sadly since then almost everything has gone wrong and most of it could have been avoided by really experienced businessman with experience in mining. Even one of the analysts notes quite rightly pointed out that other operators in Mali haven't had the issues Humm had that year, it was self inflicted.
We really need to find out how bad the cash burn is at the moment and what the plan is to manage any cash situation and also what operational plans tie into that. If this picture looks doable and well thought out this business is probably incredibly cheap. Unfortunately its been on problem after another for 2/3 years now so you'd be a brave person to bet either way.
I just feel there is enough incentive for everyone to find ways to support each other in this somehow for it to fall apart suddenly. Dugbe must be worth a small fortune with gold near here too !