Member Info for Greener101

Useful, thanks alsoppc

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/537867/danas-western-isles-project-to-shut-down-eight-years-earlier-than-planned/

Anyone have access? Did NSTA ok it?

More sellers than buyers. Madness is infectious clearly

I think we can all agree it's possible to buy clip sizes of a few thousand quite easily.

I think we can all agree the price went down today as there were more buyers than sellers.

I think we can all agree mm's get plenty of action on the turn they charge, and don't need to get involved in a conspiracy to defraud retail investors.

I'm a small holder as of today, consider it a column bet on roulette, GLA even the crazies.

12% short bets on IG for JOG ... chartists, from prior experience. Should add a little Tobasco to good news if it hits this week!

Some comparison with JOG and PANR this week by members of the board. Surprised this didn't awake the great ex-accountant in the sky for some fire and brimstone... which I would enjoy, peaking over the sandbags.

But I would agree with the high-risk point. JOG is vaporware until we have proof that Neo has committed the capex - until then a portfolio shuffle at NEO sends JOG to zero. I believe that this is not an institutional investment until then.

This market perception is what gives us the chance at a multibag from here.

On good news on FPSO, and 2nd FO, I think this is a much bigger news than any previous RNS. It'll be the final answer to 'show me the money'. Jim333 said AB is hitting the road soon, presumably with that news in the bag. That means we can start the transition of the register from me, thee and JS to the big boys.

Traded Orca well last 24hrs covering my losses from an earlier investment, now zero holding. I found their management call compelling though. They seem to have found a partner in similar circumstances to JOG, I guess snagging an FPSO coming off project. Dilution is coming, but the market cap Vs project unrisked NPV is 10 times.

Anyone have any views or reservations? Apologies off topic post. Orca board is vibing Billy Ray Valentine however.

Great tip thanks

Oh dear. I used an inflation adjusted chart so those numbers are wrong. The point remains extant although less exaggerated. High oil can persist for a decade in crappy economic times, and in decent economic times. There are more supply and demand factors than GDP growth. Oil was more expensive than today between in the two periods I mentioned, 70s and 2005-2014. OPEC has written a firm put and that looks to influence the price more than current crappy global economy.

*May 1985 not 1980

Haha. Many thanks for your informative reply to my oil post Donkeyb0110cks. Of course there is some truth to what you say, and the economic drag high oil creates is a limiter and will cause a reversion to mean until the black stuff runs out (or we stop using it). It is PART of the story.

But if you get out your Casio, you'll note that oil hit $64 bll in 1974 -in today's prices is $394. It stayed that way for the next decade, rising to 149 in May 1980 ($555 today's money). I wasn't following the news much then but I don't remember it was too rosey economically. Oil (yes financial markets affect it/ hot money too) is affected by supply and demand. Hence even going negative during COVID.

Many applications of oil are pretty price inelastic, especially when $93bll oil is $15 in 1974. After inflation, oil isn't that expensive.

$120 a barrel today is $84 in 2008. The global economy comfortably tolerated oil higher than this from 2005 onwards and even after the crash stayed mainly above 100 for then next ten years.

So, I'm not advocating 200 oil, but as I said 'heads I win tails you lose', it's hard to see to much cheap oil during JOGs production years.

Re oil price. If China is in slowdown, all the Russian oil is still on the market, and the economies of the West are all at zero or low growth, and oil is pushing towards 100, what does that tell you will happen in the inevitable return to normal economic cycle?

Admittedly OPEC is playing silly buggers but they will continue to do so until oil hits 100 or more.

Which tells you that oil bears are in a 'heads I win tails you lose' scenario?

I think recent price action on Brent is a good indicator that things will go well for JOG at first oil even if the relevant future (with high carry cost due to higher interest rates) isn't blowing out.

Good luck JS. I often think about PANR's Comms strategy in comparison with JOG.... but if you're right lots of upside there!

Some people impatient and selling. I think this update is a derisk to the announcements upcoming, and puts us in a better place whilst waiting.

I would add, history tells us that JOG is happy to update with 'nearly there' news, without promising, and then updates with the objective achieved very shortly afterwards.

The timing of NSTA approval of WI decommissioning approval is anyone's guess; I reckon those who are selling for fear the timeframe is being pushed back, I think are wrong. The big announcements may follow next week - it's just now they're de-risked again by JOGs update, which to my mind is a strong credit as per their track record.

Also note FEED planning is committed to, there is no delay as the various workstreams run concurrently.

Unfortunately I'm rather out of funds for another top-up but I reckon now would be good for one, DYOR not advising..

Patience Einbert. The company doesn't constantly communicate and attempt to ramp the SP, it delivers on milestones in spite of a bloody difficult climate.

There is for the first time an explicit mention of engagement with potential counterparties for the second FO.

Fwiw I'm getting bored of this story myself, mainly because I see it as an inevitability that will just plod along at its own pace. It's not going to be like a typical minnow oil stock in the drilling phase either - middling competency and always the worry the team are on a meal ticket - as the operatorship is a flinty PE firm, lean on fat and very competent. JOG is edging ever closer to collecting a fat cheque a regular intervals. We're getting there and more news may hit next week.

The word in the shipbroking word is that the deal on WI FPSO is already done, and that NEO won't announce redeployment until NSTA authorises decommissioning. Apparently that's jumping the gun and is bad form.

Finally, JOG has plenty headroom for growth in the surrounding E&P prospects, already licenced. I can imagine the EPL-cashflows will be used to drill those and fill the pipeline further than Verbier/ J2. If Lab remove the investment allowance please give us back the cash!

My trial sub ran out... anyone? Buller? anyone?

I give up. Was trying to say risk is less than 5 per cent but didn't like the symbol. Apologies multi post

Something odd happened there - should read 'that risk is

I share your worry alsoppc. But I have hope that finally the market will get it. The two events you mention de-risk things a helluva lot. If JOG give us details on the model, we get info on the deal - we don't really know how good it is yet.

The remaining risks are 1) NSTA doesn't say yes, which would seem bananas due to low full-cycle carbon footprint.

And 2) the drilling goes badly and flow rates are poor. Apparently speaking to multiple sources that risk is 100mm a year pre-tax, and a host of further prospects to drill in GBA, the model looks very appealing.

My dream is that institutions holding other NS independents sell a little and buy some JOG when the chance of going to zero will be past us.

History repeats until it doesn't. But I'll be unsure on the sell button myself.

Hi Surety.

The article mentions ex-UK m&A only. Harbour says it is only commited to UK investment where the EPL is usable. No mentions of UK projects.

From market sources Harbour is said to be furious with UK, determined to diversify away. A potential listing elsewhere is also being explored apparently.

I have a subscription. The only bit of interest is that it is in the title with Cambo and Rosebank. There is a short summary of what we already know at the end of the article.