Member Info for Greener101

Best of British to us both Rollo

Marineclark. You are right regarding a big gamble, but yes this is the first and only 'all in' I have done. I had my reasons for feeling it was an unmissable opportunity. There is a tide in the affairs of men...etc

Regarding drilling risk, my understanding from experts I've talked to is that this doesn't have the characteristics of a greenfield site - ie 'it'll probably work but we're not sure', because there's years of production data it's highly improbable that it's uncommercial. I mean maybe WI FPSO hits a WW2 mine and sinks, anything could happen. But it's probably more likely to suprise a little on the upside due to the transformatively different drilling techniques/ water injectors etc.

Well scoredagainsteps, you offer opinion rather than facts, even though you may be right.

Yes JS I am grumpy. Cheer acknowledged.

I am no numbers man, but this is not a complicated situation now given the exceptionally low execution risk for first oil in 3 years. Meanwhile you have a natural inflation hedge, possibility for big oil price rise, takeover, tax change on the upside etc.

Shouldn't we be at the fair value price, with an applied equity risk premium and a discount for the time value of money (you know what I mean, NPV or whatever)?

Anyway, I'll probably buy some more at this price before year end.

80LL0X and 8UGG3R me backwards etc

not exactly the slow climb to sunny uplands i had settled on, having come to terms with an instant re-rate.

how bloody annoying it is to have bet the farm (literally my entire sipp) + a bunch more via bets, have risked it all on a stock that could have gone to 50p in an instant if the fo crumbled, and not be rewarded when the call was a correct one.

even cynical investing friends i have, that for months laughed their ****s off at just another bs mini oilco story, are now shrugging and saying 'this should be worth a lot more'.

i think the time has come for js to take this company private. just bid friday's close js, that should do it.

80ll0cks!!!!!!!!!!

A key question on Takeover is tax treatment surely?

NS is more and more debt-starved as time goes by, and that kills M&A?

Investment would be zero without the investment allowance avoiding the WFT.

I have no idea whether you could use WFT profits to buy shares in JOG. If not, there is plenty incremental spend that can be done on assets, FO etc etc.

Anyone can educate me on this please do

Confused. I always believed what was holding the price back was a risk of GBA falling through. Although I believed it was happening 95% chance, I could see why others did not.

Now the risk to get to the numbers PC01 has set out, or DU many other times, seems almost nothing?

Could JOG get a FO at all? Yes, they are fully carried to 20%.

Would the FO partners exercise the option? Yes, they have already bought the FPSO.

Would the timeline be done before a Lab gov? Yes, the NSTA are super supportive, FDP goes in soon and cleared by H1 2024.

Tax/ political environment can only suprise on the upside.

To me this seems now a very safe play indeed! At some point the market has to see the value. We should be at 4 at least.

Perhaps we will be in the coming weeks. GLA.

Morning lads and ladettes! That's an excellent result!!!!! Biff, pow, whazam

JS has his eyes on ORCA as well. Maybe just straight take that one out TBH. Get me JT Marlin on the phone!

I understand MAN has an advanced algorithm based on JSs comments and trades heavily upon its findings. It's called the 'Biff and Pow Strategy' apparently

I completely understand why AB doesn't guide on second FO timeline. The second they do, it gives a negotiating chip to the counterparty, and invites a timeline miss, and then having to carefully word the RNS.

They are confidently hitting targets and when we hear I'm sure it'll be good!

I echo the sentiment of well done to everyone who has stuck it out, and also welcome those who want to get in now, it's a great time to do so!

PS well timed on your 10k DU

Agree DiveCentre. This is something that can be fully explored, modelled and commited to in principle prior to today's news.

But ink can't be signed until today. How could the board sign off on it without this official news released?

If we are lucky 2nd FO is done already, and new could come early next week.

PS. Crappy Brent prices for 2 quarters and WFT release clause triggered........ We are $7bbl away....

I think it highly unlikely no second FO; this delay will be about finalisation of FDP and terms.

This team has showed they can make things happen. Les Thomas is not going to be strong-armed in negotiation, he'll get a great deal I'm sure.

This week Rodney. GL with this 10k DU.

I have been getting vibes from the political world. As Tories are trying to put clear blue water between them and labour environmental policy and business tax, and NS production is falling off a cliff, we should not rule out he following:

Government rescinding the WFT this Autumn or Q1 next year, and challenging Labour to put it back on with normalised Brent prices and stagnating economy.

Lab will be in a tough economic spot, and with pressure from the unions may pitch to keep the tax off for energy security reasons/ economic reasons.

The SP I believe reflects total despondency with the political situation. A suprise to the upside plus long awaited news could blast us into the stratosphere.

We expect a decent second FO and FDP, plus FID early next year. Add that to a suprise upside to tax and we are at £10.

News to come this week perhaps...

I was hoping for news by now, but as all the milestones for SP re-rate run concurrently, the longer the wait the bigger the potential news. Come on JOG!

We waited a long time for the first FO, and it was a cracking deal - if annoying in that it wasn't complete. JOG will take their time with the completion of the 2nd, but I bet it's a good one. And we don't care about out the quality of the source - as they won't operate it. Maybe it's an infrastructure fund!

Also there is no reason all the engineering studies and work on FDP / FEED stuff shouldn't go on in the background. No indication of delay. Evidenced by the fact that Neo are hiring loads of people.

But where is that bloomin RNS! Retail money is slowly leaking out, and we want a bit of institutional!

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/new-european-offshore_neo-energy-new-north-sea-project-activity-7122268154952593408-EeVr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Thanks for this. In a way this is more powerful evidence than all the analyst write-ups!

Think some very good news is coming soon.

DU - thanks for this research..However following your link takes me to a small retail outfit? It's hardly GLG.

To be contrarian, the fact that this is not held institutionally yet much at all leaves a big possible jump in the SP.

And to be cynical the stars are aligning with the Israel events to secure an elevated oil price medium term.

I asked my shipbroking mate - head doesn't know

Agreed with your analysis alsoppc. I would say JOG has plenty in its existing licenses to spend oil cash flows on drilling. If Lab remove the EPL allowance we could be looking at an insurance company in run off however.

For the record JS I was taking the Michael, but you have made some good calls recently! Plenty to spend on Coca-Cola and the middle one in the front row

I thought think JS has turned out to be the great sage of the board with his ORCA analysis... X10 multibag from the lows.