Member Info for Greener101

If you re-read my post DU you'll see that's not what I wrote.

Benitz has many years and much of his personal wealth invested in the company. He goes from hero to zero(ish) if it fails.

Les T has much less I agree, but he has bought before and has put quite a bit of time into it.

Personally, I don't think board members have an obligation to buy their own stock. They aren't founders, they have adequate options and salaries already linked to JOG. Putting more money in via shares from a personal diversification stand point makes no sense.

Perhaps the only risk left is some kind of issue with NSTA and a delay to FID. CEO and Les T buying stock suggests that the relationship with regulator is good and on track or better.

Given the risks to the stock if something goes wrong, in FDP process, buying more when they're up to their necks in personal exposure already is a very good sign IMHO.

What's nice to be reminded of is all the potential in the GBA.

Yes Buchan phase 1 will get us to 35,000b/d for the first few years, but phase 2 and 3, and then Wengen and Cortina NE will keep the FPSO bobbing around in the acreage for many more years producing away. The cash flows will get just silly.

Apols, I meant NAV. Or more truthfully 'what it should be worth'.

Do you put any of the discount on my 3 reasons DU or do you think it's all political risk?

I tend to agree that a sale is the right thing. JOG is going to always trade at a huge discount to NPV as:

1) one big asset and no diversification

2) AIM listed

3) O&G (especially UK!) will always be valued at a huge discount.

Can you not then say - cash flows reinvested into buying assets will still be undervalued, so the only good deal for shareholders is to return the cash as dividends, or flog it.

WI will sit in GBA for next 15years plus? So a decent purchase for a big independent.

I wonder what it would go for.

In the ESG section, gas is mentioned. Export pipeline discussed. Is that in the model?

Apologies Einbert. '1 quick pint after work' had gone a little awry and was trying to get the craic going. Still no sign of DU however.

Guys - I believe and hope the price will go up. It has to on the basis of random number generation at this point.

DU - can you show proof of life?

Great question. It has turned out the valuation of JOG isn't as mechanical as we all thought.

Heaven knows when the market reacts, but at some point a modern FPSO sat on GBA producing steadily and with enough reserves in the area (assuming some of the E&P items hit) to be sat there for the next 20 years or more pumping out the black stuff has to be worth something.

The market reaction to JOGs successes will be disappointing, and that pattern will repeat as it has done for 6 years or more.

Until one day sometime between now and first oil, it won't.

If you stick around you have a massive chance if tripling your money or more.

Good Christ Cuphalfull - a polite comment like that could break the internet!

Given that we're down from multiple highs during last 3 years, yet the farm out has gone to plan with great partners, I don't think any milestones are going to help.

Until rates come down and retail money comes in to UK small cap, JOG will continue to be a fair value aberration whatever happens.

My guess is things will stagnate, with a small rise probably, until rates come down next year. The way retail will think about this (er me too?) is that:

1) whatever happens this stock doesn't pay out properly

2) gilts pay me 5% with no default risk

3) we are too far from first oil to really anticipate that massive cash flow. I can stay out until FID gets approved mid 2024 at least and get my 5% gilt.

4) Oil is the new tobacco, uncertain future in the business and a political dog, but pays >10% dividends.

As gilt yields start to drop, and UK stocks start to murmur, and we close the gap to first oil, the imagination gap will close and we'll get there. Or a bid post FID.

High rates, far from first oil, logic doesn't play.

Crappy SP is all about retail isn't it. Even the institutions like small cap AIM funds are retail owned (rather than by pension funds etc).

When gilts pay 5% everyone (perhaps sensibly) is in that.

If the interest cycle is turning (seems to be so in US at least) as we approach FDP/ FID we should be getting a boost.

Retail will rush back into AIM when rates come down ?

All these insights for free from the great macro investor Greener101

I don't agree - respectfully. All your reasons for me a conspiracy theory.

ORCA and JOG are not performing because:

1) institutions are not buying, and are even forced sellers. retail redemptions from small cap funds are growing. Fund managers cannot initiate new positions with less and less money to manage. Small caps are rotating into medium cap too.

2) retail investors have no equity only mandate, so they take one look at gilts paying 6% and rotate out.

3) O&G is also getting specific redemptions because high energy prices and energy insecurity will save the world. Apparently.

4) the whims of OPEC and UKGOV and the declining market for fossil fuels (declining in the west a lot already) make it a high risk backdrol.

How said contrarian investibg was easy?!?!

GLA

1) a blue-chip counterparty and it's just formalities

2) a spivy chancer who is niggling on price/ flip-flopping...

One answer could be - they sell their share in the FPSO agreement. Buying that and the free carried drillex can be deducted by the investment allowance surely?

That would leave a shell company with 200mm in cash? However that cash would not be subject to investment allowance, so wouldn't it be better to just return in to shareholders and wind up the company?

Interested to know if JOG's new management wanted to take on a 3/4 year project, flip it and retire, or actually build a company. Probably the latter.

It would make sense to flip the GBA, or do some RBL, and diversify by buying producing assets.

Then again if they want to go for the big prize the wait for first oil and spend the giant cash flows on drilling all their licenses. That may depend on tax policy under Lab.

Whatever it is, they have to get that SP up - for their options, and to avoid a TO. And er, because I'd like to go on holiday.

It's not Rocket science Einbert.

It's not like they have to participate in an operational way at all. It's purely a tax efficient investment. Do we have 250mm lying around with a tax target on it? Dealer, let it ride!

On FDP submission perhaps? Once JOG and NEO have their stuff together, papers are in? I feel like Harbour (or anyone) will have a strong steer on whether boxes will all tick correctly.

Hmmmmmm. I think he should have guided by now either way....

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