Member Info for Greener101

The bearishness on the board is encouraging

Https://www.unitetheunion.org/campaigns/oil-and-gas-no-ban-without-a-plan

Interesting. Growing pressure for Labour to clarify policy before the election. I think the political cost of doing it is low.

Double frothy tip from SC and ST. Buyers well outnumber sellers, which is a good sign the over hang has cleared. Either that or Nick Robinson is on holiday and out of reception.

CEO of Ithaca in an article yesterday evening:

However, Myerson added discussions with both political parties were taking a more pragmatic view than has been publicised due to the UK’s current heavy reliance on oil and gas.

“I can share that behind closed doors both the government and the opposition seem to be a lot more supportive than what may come across in the newspapers,” he said.

“Ultimately the UK currently uses oil and gas for 70% of its energy.

“Why wouldn’t you produce your own local energy if you’re hitting yourself in terms of jobs, taxes, energy security and global emissions?”

We are hearing the same message from Steve Brown, and I have heard it from other industry sources. An atmosphere change is coming soon in NS, and greener projects will be rewarded - such as Orcadian, and Jersey Oil & Gas.

We are close to the bottom (or maybe at it) in O&G sentiment in North Sea. ORCA is a super-levered exposure to that (that no-one big can buy because it's too small).

Hold on to your helmets over the coming weeks!!!!

DU! You go too far sir. The Uranus Long Term Brilliance Fund is a top performer, that we can all get behind. I know the manager Hugh Janus extremely well, we all got behind him at Eton.

What you say is quite true, DU. Don't disagree. But something is afoot behind the scenes. I have heard from another industry source that Lab wants to work with industry to fund the energy transition. Ithaca CEO said the same thing. I don't know what form it will take. The obvious choice is that either green oil is less taxed, or profits spend on windfarms are deductable.

However laughable we find windfarms, if the project goes ahead, and suddenly has its entire untaxed cash flow available to spend on green oil projects or renewables, that's 100s of millions of pounds.

The company will be worth a lot more than 145p.

Something is afoot behind the scenes

Crystal balling it that far out is a mistake in my view. All sorts of things could change: greater destabilization in global security picture. Economic slide that forces need for more jobs, Tax and balance of payments urgency. Another energy price spike. Inflation and cost of living could start to be blamed on greens - we know heat pumps are the saviour, nor EVs. Food prices. unemployment increase motivates the unions. etc etc etc.

Literally anything could happen, but typically you get 'reversion to mean' - we're as bad as it gets! DU is right that it's crazy to sell at 145p. atmosphere can only improve. We are close to the puke point I think.

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/553468/ithaca-cambo-decision/

...last paragraph

DU - why then did Serica farm in, and is Neo keeping development going? I think you have to work on the basis that Labours hand will be forced by the rapid decline of NS.

Serica closed the FO and paid multi millions in full knowledge of the statements made by Ed.

PS I do not except JOG to want to fund a windfarm.

It feels exhaustingly bad at the moment but all it takes is a small news release from Labour, on a technical clarification that wouldn't be a 'U-turn' if communicated correctly, and the SP will go nuts. The current price suggests 0% chance of project sanction, which is crazy. Allowances clarified - and it has a 99% chance of sanction!

PS the management are not in control of whether the business is up for sale - shareholders are. And I believe even if secretly you would be delighted in a bid, doing your best to polish the asset up, and look busy gets a higher price. I appreciate they are sitting on their behinds at the moment but 4 months until FID would be an odd time to dissamble the management team and go home. It would also crush the tax advantages on their options.

Gosh I am a suck-up aren't I!

Thanks. I can only surmise that it's a low cost 'option' being created to boost green credentials. As mentioned previously, and hinted at by Steve Brown over at Orcadian, Lab gov may fiddle with allowances on green credentials. The industry has been negotiating with gov and labour these last few months. The existing investment allowances allow for a super-deduction on electrification.

Perhaps this cheaply positions JOG for an option should the tax environment shift again.

Les Thomas is very far from dumb and would not allowance a spurious adventure in my view.

You could equally say the 10k buyer has returned. All this stock is being absorbed at the current bottom by someone. For every seller, there's a buyer.

Where do you see the bit about windfarms off Jersey/ France?

The report James Murray asked for will be out soon. I have an email alert for it on gov website.

The moral, or practical argument will not make it into the brains of politicians. The fiscal one will (remember Liz Truss?). Labour is already leaking the fact they know they must rescind EPL or kill North Sea (see Hansard).

We're going to make it, but could be a scary journey until Lab clarifies tax policy. EPL removed 2027 is err.... very good for us.

As soon as Labour clarify that only some allowances will be removed, or none, as I believe they have to, things will start moving very fast. The deduction for risk that the project doesn't proceed gets removed. FID is coming within months - and first oil not far off. EPL removed maybe one year after first oil. Tax losses and oil revs become very attractive for takeover. Hey presto £10 a share one way or another.

ORCA is in a holding pattern until clarity comes on Lab tax allowances. That is the news that will lift the stock, and I think that picture will be made clearer in the coming weeks and months.

The point here is that SB is creating an ever-growing 'option' that in the right circumstances will be worth a massive amount. In fact an insane amount. If you think of it in terms of leverage, as the CAPEX comes entirely from the FO partner, it's 100% levered.

There will be 'nothing to see here' until O&G in North Sea gets clarity on the tax environment (Well, FDP approval will also be great for the stock).

Patience MAY reward shareholders x10 or more.

GLA. I'm holding for the next 12 months.

Reached! Blasted autocorrect

Https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-2.0/centery:57.6/zoom:6

Ocean Geograph has now rescheduled GBA and surveying away.

I have to say, although the current climate is horrible in NS, if we do come out the other side of the looking glass (currently looking by 2028) - this is a lottery ticket. Heavy oil will be needed for decades, and as SB and team tee up these licenses they'll be as rich as Croesus.

Https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9267388

The survey ship left Hull early this morning. Looks like Neo happy to pay for the site survey, needed for drilling anchors and near surface hazards. All on track.