Member Info for Greener101

I notice Waldorf parent company went into administration yesterday, from speaking to people there this is wholly due to EPL. Wanton economic vandalism. I'm not even sure that Torygraph article helps - as plenty of people in the UK are happy to tale the other side of the argument that NS production should stop ASAP. Grim grim grim. I am hoping that OBR / the fiscal argument wins the day - RR has repeatedly said she will only do funded policies. We know that changed longterm forecasts (which run after the smash 'n grab period) will be in play here.

Cyril2 - NSAT requires about 2 years notice to allow cessation of production I've been told?

Lab can simply confiscate existing production. Like the Tories.

It's taking nerves of steel to hold here

FEED progressing well with millions spent on it every month. Tens of millions perhaps.

They need to know capital allowance will stay to spend a billion. So they couldn't order long lead items.

If Labour clarify after the election long lead items will be ordered and reported (or be spotted in trade press)

Share price will triple. Months to wait.

Delay in first oil makes little difference and may help as might see less EPL.

This is a binary bet on capital allowances. Today's news is scary hence drop.

This is the worst big bet I have ever made but I can't see a reason to sell.

Room 1234? Marvelous view.

PS. An obvious choice for the industry is to allow full offset of tax to invest in green energy infrastructure. I guess this is why JOG are investigating windfarms off Jersey. However much we hate windfarms, investing JOGs entire gross profit into a green asset that is well understood, would likely create huge value for investors. Hundreds of millions of dollars creating an asset that has a much greater investor universe.

Also we still have the tax losses to make use of, as DU mentioned.

However miserable things are the is huge potential still in JOG.

Unfortunately I tend to agree Itsriskythat, and also note that Darren Jones said something similar in interviews yesterday.

However, the word on the street with those connected more closely to JOG/ Neo is that the project will survive 78% EPL, and removal of EPL investment allowance.

It would be delayed only by the removal of the capital allowance. This has not been mentioned by Labour since it was chucked around months ago without the recent hard communication by the OEUK. The capital allowance is used by every business in the UK, and its removal might even be a legal problem for the government. Also all the North Sea CEOs have been hinting that Labour have softened a little. I think a confident guess is that this is the softening.

Yes these policies deal a death blow to the North Sea. But not to JOG.

The bull case for oil long term I think is getting stronger - demand isn't dropping much in the West, and the developing world is ravenous for it - the majority of the world cares more about escaping poverty than climate change. Also I think it's reasonable to see a good chance of EPL being removed at some point over the next few years.

GLA. A fine story DU.

I don't think keeping the allowances has any political cost.

The devastating effects of removing them are being shouted from the rooftops, not just from business, not just potentially from OBR for fiscal reasons, but from the unions who are taking out billboards. The treasury will not let it happen.

After thinking about it DU, I respectfully disagree that a delay is on the table, unless it's the month until the election. Then it probably won't be RNS'ed.

The early election is good for us I maintain, as it sorts the issue months before FID.

Just one hint from Lab pre election and SP will rocket. I doubt we'll get it, but we might.

Yep. I'm aware DU but that explanation may be useful for the folks at home.

I'm looking for signs Lab might keep the allowances.

I was interpreting RR remarks to mean - WFT extended, no extra 3% and keep the allowances. I admit this is a wishful interpretation.

Interesting re tax losses. A good deal would be a relief.

Extend not 'increase', no mention of allowances. Small fry but hopefully that's it

Rachel Reeves has claimed that a Labour government would not need to impose any new tax rises beyond those she has already set out.

The shadow chancellor, speaking at an event in Derby, said Labour already had plans to extend the windfall tax on energy companies’ profits, put VAT on private schools and ensure that private equity bonuses are “taxed appropriately” — all of which are existing party policies.

“There are no additional tax rises needed beyond the ones that I’ve said,” she said.

That comment goes further than Reeves’s pledge on Sunday that a Labour government would not increase income tax or national insurance.

JOG (Neo) has the license, and also the permit to produce.

Nothing in the manifesto to suggest FDP won't be granted by NSTA under a Labour government.

Nothing about specifics will be released until post election, any else heard KS on Times Radio this morning? Absolutely content lite.

On the flip side, we'll find out soon enough in July. Hoping that what all the NS oil co CEOs have been saying is true, Neo and Serica should have certainly on taxation allowances in 6 weeks time. That means no delays to FO.

Here's hoping

Great that he's avoided any dilution. He's a big shareholder himself so interests are aligned...

Environmentalist anarcho-primitivists use the scientific fact of global warming to push for massive deindustrialization, so that their political agenda based on radical equality and the destruction of capitalism can take place. These are generally civil servants who will not be affected by massive deindustrialization.

In France, as civil servants, they have a guaranteed job for life. They live in cities and don't need cars, so they're also car-averse. They love comfort brought by fossil fuels but criticize the comfort of others. They have a high level of education but don't understand that a construction boss with no university education earns 5 times more than them. They also give lessons on inequality but send their children to private schools.

Let's face it, fossil fuels have enabled millions of people to enjoy a comfortable lifestyle. The side effect is global warming. But that's no reason to succumb to the anarcho-primitivists. Please don't fall into this trap.

Just rang my broker. He held the phone up to the trading floor and beckoned them all to scream and shout! It was very exciting. We are partners now and I look forward to our journey together. Next time he can get me an evener bigger 'clip' size!!

Yes. That labour softens stance on tax allowances. JOG has already reacted and up more than 10% in last few days. ORCA not twigged yet. Great opportunity to multibag.

Various articles about Unite. Ads are being taken out in key Scottish constituencies about it. Making in-roads to Scotland is definitely important to KS.

Should even this modest piece of news be released: "EPL allowance removed, capital allowances remain" - which for me is a worst case scenario (I think electrification-ready projects could easily get full allowances) Buchan is a 'go'.

It would be great to hear it from a finance person (...) but surely a lot of CAPEX can get done under the present regime (FSPO purchase) leaving modest damage to the model for CAPEX Q2 2025 (when Lab will have got the changes through).

Anyway - on this small piece of news, JOG should get the biggest possible share price rise in the story for far. And all us LTHs, who recently I'm sure have all been thinking about chucking in the towel, would be back behind the sofa again looking for small change, asking granny for cheques, etc etc.

I'm pretty despondent myself about the stock, but it's crazy to think we could be days from a giant rebound.

GLA

Did anyone see this last night? Labour fella Anas Sanwar under attack from everyone with EPL and Investment allowances specifically mentioned. Sanwar did a whole speech about 'we will need O&G for coming decades', and 'we will honour all licenses including the decades lifespan of field' but didn't hint at anything else, didn't mention EPL or Allowance. All very strange. Seems contradictory.

So easy to please both groups. Green projects, smaller business not majors, definition of 'new', what is the loophole, when is it active, etc etc etc

Wow - the language from even the left-leaning FT is changing... 'The Labour party has proposed increasing the total tax rate to 78 per cent and removing tax relief on new projects, which it has described as a loophole.'

CHF - I'm no expert, others please chime in... but I believe it's evidence that the project is absolutely live and progressing. Although - I don't think it's the kind of expense that means project is certain to proceed.

Neo initiated a new contract on 13th May for another survey, new vessel, including 'borehole sampling'... another few 00,000s...

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