Member Info for Greener101

Until energy becomes free (fusion?) it's hard to see the end of oil? If the price of oil drops too far, any country not gripped by eco-policy (and even those that are) must grab it, unless we are in specific supply-glut part of the cycle.

Inflation is ever present and as energy is a huge input how can we ignore oil even if we see a trend away?

Won't the Buchan JV proceed as soons as Scope 3 and post-EPL are sorted?

Neo and Sereca have profits they need to re-invest to avoid EPL today, (84 in the pound), and pray for a turnaround by first oil? I believe the model works ok even if no change to EPL.

Not a lot of point in delaying, they'll just get whacked in tax, and keep having to maintain the FPSO.

Haven't posted for a while as got a bit despondent about the impending budget and potential end (or perma-frosted) GBA.

Whilst painful the keeping of the 1st year allowance means GBA can go ahead. Neo and Serica will still save 84p in the pound during the CAPEX phase, and first oil sees only a little more EPL until the new mechanism.

The government have given the first signal they they don't wish to let Ed Miliband strangle NS entirely, but taxing less than they had threatened. There was positive language in the budget about needing NS.

The JV will wait now until the Scope 3 emissions and industry consultation are done - spring 2025.

Then news-flow that the project proceeds... with 9-12 months to push to FDP.

Looks like we can get there... not sure when people will want to start buying ahead of spring?

Apparently she said she will: 'maintain 100% first year allowance and the decarbonisation allowance"

Well good news for Joggers apparently. Can anyone provide perspective about allowances? I missed the speech and can't find anything online except they increase WFT to 78%, extended it a year, and removed investment allowance.

Why the positive reaction?

Market cap of just 24m now. I don't see the situation as much changed in terms of fundamentals: the government has still counting down less than 60 days to decide to terminate all NS investment. NEO have just publicised that stark choice. Many people's guess is a deal will be found.

Top post Cyril2

With the benefit of hindsight MT... and many a day/swing trader would agree.

However Warren Buffet would not.

Rumblings on the grapevine is that whilst risk remains, the project is very much alive and the 3 participants are closely engaged with Gov to get the tax right for GBA.

Sell you shorts (where did you borrow stock?!?!?) as a flicker of good news will now roof this stock.

I would add that even though this has been a rollercoaster chart, the market has consistently taken fright before big decision points... that have subsequently turned out to be 'win's (ie remember how low we got just before F/O).

That would also suggest there isn't leak and insiders feeling the sinking ship.

But it's nerves of steel time.... it does now start with a 5!!!!

Thanks for that post FrazerJohn and it all makes sense.

Key question is can the project proceed?

I am surprised by the plummet lower. Most of the bad news from HMT was already known. We got confirmation that they know removing too much capital allowance against EPL kills NS and they would be in consultation with stakeholders.

Thus why aren't we expecting a modest reduction, and GBA goes ahead?

The JV announced that they'd be looking closely, which they have to do to try and fight their corner up until 30 October? If they were already busy they would have had to announce. So it's wait and see...

They cant play chicken with gov, as WI in expensive wet storage.

So therefore best deal they can get and off to FID?

What is telling people that FID now has practically no chance of happening (as expressed in SP)?

I'm obviously missing something

Well, this definitely has the characteristics of a puke....

They have already sacrificed it! Question is to they want to ceremonially hang draw and quarter it in front of UK taxpayers and the unions!

Well MT, fair enough. I guess we can agree to disagree.

May I ask on what platform can you short the stock? I don't see any possibility on any platform I use.

A highly polarised view with no insight.

All this in spite of multi-million pound farm-outs, contracts signed, project work done, FSPO wet storage etc etc - when it was totally know by all parties that the tax climate and atmospherics where awful.

Why? Because in spite of everything you say the model for Buchan works, in everything but the absolute worst case tax scenario.

So you may be right MT in outcome, but only if the stakeholder engagement the gov has committed to ends in total annihilation for NS.

It's more likely in my view that it ends in 'medium-total annihilation', in which case GBA proceeds.

What's irritating is there is no substance just always slander.

It's clear the project is still live. The question is whether the clarification comes in October that fits the project sanction model.

No-one is saying it's not without risk, but why keeping kr@pping on it with no insight?

MT always 'predicts' on the day, after the fact.

I just bought a load, money where mouth is I suppose.

Alternative translation: 'we need Reeves to confirm the capital allowances remain in place or a workable reduction'

Maybe this is the final puke?

If MT is right, why is all the project work going on in the background?

I understand the 'first year allowance' affects only timing of tax cash flows? That won't affect things much?

Looks like we're home dry - from JOG's perspective, they lose only 3% extra tax, and possibly a bit more expensive on any overrun?

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/july-statement-2024-changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy/changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy

Some positives in there

WFT increase, and removal of 'investment allowance' related to WFT, do not stop GBA proceeding.

If they were moderated it would be a bonus.

It's removal of capital allowance that would kill GBA. Incidentally it would immediately stop all investment in NS stone dead: Cambo, Rosebank etc etc. Anything at all.

Hence why it's a good bet they'll keep it, and why GBA will go ahead.

Apologies for telling anyone what they already know.