Member Info for Greener101

Does anyone have any sight on the matrix used to decide? is the formula related to scope 3 emissions (API of crude, destination of crude) in the context of extraction emissions (reused infrastructure, wind power, existing field?). I understood we were good on this but not sure what our case is.

The fact that this is static (even though evidence of buys) whilst JOG is rising, is market inefficiency in action? I realise the FO progress is nowhere near as concrete as JOG. Steve told us news is coming on the gas partnership, and Dan Slater has said to look out for a 3rd JV partner with Ping.

We've seen in the past once the market sees this it can go to 50 in days. I added 10k yesterday.

GLA, DYOR, etc

I don't mean it in a negative way. To pick up a field discarded by Enquest for a song, not having done any of the E&P drilling, then beaver away at it then manage to farm out and retain a 18.75% fully carried interest... in my book is creating something for nothing. Loans from shell, clever ways to pay it off, etc etc.

If he gets to FID even just on Pilot it's a magic trick (and will make anyone who bought at 10p like me > a ten bagger).

I'm only complementary. Same as JOG - without savvy characters like Ron Lansdell, GBA would be a patch of sea with some seagulls.

Much respect for SB!

ORCA is a major (binary!) beneficiary of changes to UK scope 3 and EPL. Surprised it hasn't moved up already. Tangible evidence that Steve is creating value and optionality with smart deals. Worry has been that ORCA is vapourware but plenty evidence on the contrary. Zeus putting in some good effort into the stock too. 'Art is making something from nothing and selling it' - Frank Zappa. Artful work SB.

Hmmm. I think I will try to add this morning.

If you read the T&C's, DU takes a 10% brokers fee on all trades. Also JS on 5%. Better than 2 and 20!

Change of office... Can only mean Steve is plotting another license conjuring trick or considering a bid from Chevron.

Apologies. Just a minor moan about no interesting news.

I think that Steve is just sat on several options that are currently fairly worthless but will be made less so by a change in NS policy. Which is coming in my view.

Can't see any need to raise capital and dilute himself. He's probably keeping busy watching telly and Scrabble.

Now we know why the price was up 10% yesterday.... Exciting news!

MP0818 - Israel must be licking their lips at the prospect of Greta doing their PR work for them....

Fair Dinkum - thanks edzi. Hopefully the steady flow of firming up results gets us towards that higher mark!

Thanks DU - For what its worth, I don't think an early removal of EPL is possible either, but I do think it can be in 2030 after only 6 months lor so of production at GBA.

Re SQZ acquistion, my question is (and fine if there are too many unknowns): " Why would SQZ take 200 million quid from post 78% taxed retained profits, to buy JOG. Isn't it far more tax efficient to spend CAPEX on JOG's carried part of the development, where (I assume), 100% of the spend comes from revenues, where they get 80p back from every pound invested?"

Quite alright if I have totally misunderstood this or 'it's more complicated than that'. I suppose also SQZ could make an all-share offer. Again I may well have not understood corporate finance at all here.

I'm not questioning any part of the investment thesis or management team's experience. It's just odd that the SP is not higher. Seems like the RNS is fantastic news, confirming strong evidence of tin, and a new block of upside. Yet we're up 6.35%, when as of last week we didn't know about the upside or any indication of tin at lower depths. I'm not an expert as you can tell - why isn't this bigger news?

Is it because nothing is yet confirmed, all potential and hints?

Https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/labour-will-surely-tap-into-growth-available-in-the-north-sea-pv99gj2f5

Even though EPL is an important source of funds, the Treasury (and OBR longer term) will be weighing up the massive financial loss to the economy of paying Qatar and USA to import LNG. The loss to the economy of decreased economic activity (in a region where Lab can win against SNP), the loss of income tax and NI, the huge loss of taxation where production now doesn't exist, the increased decom costs - put it all together and the EPL loses the country money - big time. They know this. Forget shareholders like us - we can go to hell. But the longer this goes on the worse the long term growth numbers become, constraining borrow and spend.

First oil comes 2029 - when the EPL will be replaced in 2030. Meanwhile high taxes (EPL) needs to be offset by reinvesting profits. Also polls being correct Farage will be PM before then. Also accelerating decommissioning is reducing tax and increasing decom deductions for HMRC. Also North Sea jobs and infrastructure are disintegrating month by month in front of our very eyes.

I doing think early EPL reduction is on the cards but all the above is true.

Oi oi savaloy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/08/will-north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry-be-labour-next-u-turn

Thanks for you post DU.

Some thoughts/ questions:

1) Is there a difference between bidding for JOG from retained profits, post EPL, versus spending FO cash expenses and CAPEX for JOG as part of an FO that can maybe deducted as part of the (albeit diminished) investment allowance?

2) Would bidding for JOG post consultation news but pre-'go ahead' from the JV.... be a power play from SQZ? It's implied maybe that 'if you don't deal, we might walk away from the JV and leave you with Repsol and 12.5% carry, with a deadline to find a new FO partner in a tough market?'

3) Although SQZ probably gets a better deal pre-FID than post, it's a risk of losing all the money and BoD probably would stress about it?

4) Why aren't Repsol ever considered for a bid? After all they're in the driving seat re FID.

Sorry on more point - on the basis of inflation erosion, are you familiar with the 'which way to Dublin, well I won't have started from here' joke?

At FID mid 2026, 12 months surely we are looking at highs of £5 or so, and bid potential if much below. Gonna take a lot of inflation to erase a 3 or 4 bagger.

So in short, if you feel that the consultations are good, a big part of the gap to Analysts target price will close soon enough. There is an argument to chase it on the day (a prop trader friend of mine said this would be his strategy). I definitely think there's money to be made here - on these former glory days I've just watched it shoot up over the day.

Re oil price, we are a million miles from valuing the cash flows from sale of the oil from Buchan. I think the SP moves simply on the implied binary chance of going ahead or not. Personally I think that it's unlikely that there's a scenario where a short term bad six months of Brent prices stops Repsol and Serica from going ahead - these guys think in decades.

I think if the consultations are good, you'll see the SP heading back towards the FO levels again. Re contracting the FSPO and clarity on Scope 3 means all but guaranteed FID and potentially a bid from one of the JV partners.