Member Info for Greener101

Donkey - my take is that the SP is low for a multitude of other factors I've posted before.

Neo pulling out is not at all factored into the SP. Evidenced by the fact that every time an RNS hits confirming milestones and everything on track, SP goes down.

Given that a sale price is based on a multiple of actual and future earnings, and the buyer of Neo would have to be comfortable with accepting the current climate in NS, pulling the entire project team off GBA, scrapping a nearly new FPSO, and taking 50mm barrells of reserves off the balance sheet would not seem too sensible. It would also p155 off the regulator as GBA seen as flagship low-carbon project that makes a very strong argument to keep NS producing during the energy transition. It was also put a tax crosshairs on several hundred million dollars of Neo profits just when the last chance to dodge it may be soon.

Neo aren't pulling out! The only risk to shareholders cash is JOG's board. I feel shareholder register has a very strong hold on management.

Sunak ruling out May election today. That means October or November.

Neo have submitted the draft FDP - and pulling out would be very strange.

The PE model is to buy businesses, then sell them. That's how it works. A process would take 6 months to a year to complete. I don't see any reason to bail.

Et tu AlbertEinstein?

I don't agree with that mean-spirited assessment.

JOG is selling off like many others because of political atmosphere. And I don't believe it's selling off because anything announced will obstruct the project, and there is still huge profits to me made compared to the current SP.

It's selling off because people are anticipating it being sold off as part of an out of favour sector. It's a self-reinforcing cycle that can only abate once clarity on NS oil and gas comes, or until first oil makes the market cap impossible (which it would do if the company buys back or does huge dividends).

I just wish I was looking at the stock for the first time this weekend... I hope I'd have the courage to buy it in spades...

Agree Cyril.

Onthe6 - I don't know for sure but Neo and Serica are fully aware of the situation, yet are pulling WI off site, have a fully staffed project team, are pedalling like crazy to get this over the line. If they cancel, what do they do with half an FPSO, with no plan? The FPSO will be bought, and maybe much capex before investment allowance is withdrawn, (if it even does get withdrawn). 3% extra doesn't stop the project. And a u turn on EPL in a couple of years is massive upside.

The pattern is euphoria on news, followed by slow trending down and misery. Meanwhile milestones are hit, and I believe a Lab gov presents zero risk to project go-ahead and also plenty potential for a quiet U-turn by 1st oil as NS jobs crater and unions apply pressure. But currently everyone miserable and hence crappy SP.

All sorts of news flow can come between now and FID, regarding the FPSO, contracts sorted, FEED progression, blah blah.

Trend line is headjng steadily up. At FID we'll be bid-ready, and also 18 months from first oil.

Darkest before dawn etc

PS I don't think anyone is answering your valuation question Andoman99 as I don't think the price is in any way related to a financial model.

This will swing wildly as effective free float is small and retail only. I think I coming Labour gov will be a case of selling the rumour buy the news.

But small shareholders list If it drops, doesn't mean it's sinister. But no-one to buy currently hence drop.

I hold about 25k worth and won't be selling.

IMHO....

You're concerned about the wrong thing. The completion of the FO and even it going ahead is a forgone conclusion and it failing is a black swan. Steve Brown is mega capable and massively well respected in oil world.

Unfortunately completion is baked into the price. The problem is technical - no fund manager can buy this as it's too small, and retail is spooked by Labour government incoming.

If you buy this stock, you have to be Warren Buffet and targeting first oil cash flows.

It is reuse of infrastructure play, and brownfield development, electrification ready and SB is windfarm crazy. Lab government will not be killing FID and the jobs, unions would cut their b0ll0x off given low carbon profile. Lab will not block existing licences!

Removal of investment allowance and 78% won't even kill it. Ping have the FPSO already, and therefore drillex and capex will be small enough to be profitable even with the dumb Lab policies. All companies know this is coming - Ping would not be proceeding otherwise.

If you want this stock, you need to be playing multiple years out to first oil, with upside that the Lab government is forced to resind their idiotic policies post election. Milliband must stay long green to keep the party together pre election. Hopefully they will fold post election, or in a few years when NS is cratered, quietly adjust the tax saying 'pro business, we've moved us closer to net zero (as NS production drips 50%).

Rates are too high, oil is out of favour. Buy this stock if you want to 10 bag but you might need to wait a few years.

Although it is cheap and can't see how it goes lower. But also forsee doldrums for a while.

10p worth

On track for farm out completion this quarter. This is a crazily cheap company if so!

The JOG CEO isn't doing any operator ship? Just managing investors and financial strategy?

Interesting that he mentioned investment allowance for any possible development over spend.

Presume Neo/ Serica would pay from their profits eligible for the allowance, and JOG gives them the 9p in the pound back.

Which means the 25 odd million would go a long way in an over-budget situation.

Consider also the NEDs and Les Thomas, and multiple heavy hitting shareholders that will protect our interests.

Thus investment allowance will quietly stay, no endangering further development of GBA

I think the 3% satisfies politically and doesn't make things worse than they already are.

Withdrawing the investment allowance stops everything immediately dead pretty much, a car crash of job losses and a potentially embarrassing U-turn.

My take.

Lab gov is going to be rough, especially on O&G.

I would say, even at 78% tax the profit after tax versus the SP in 2026 is still compelling.

One might even see it positive for the SP that sale or Dividends til Destruction is good for shareholders.

If JOG simply treat the business as an insurance book in run off, and the FPSO dingles around in GBA for 10 years throwing off cash and divies, isn't their still mega Dosh to be made?

The cash on the balance sheet alone post FID, can one not think of that as 'undiluting' the SP, by almost 50%?

If the board acts in shareholders interests I believe still a great stock to hold.

Einbert - My issue with your calculations is that I'm not sure 'Ying Yang' should be capitalised. Or recapitalised for that matter.

Yes Cyril - you're preaching to the converted. Good summary though.

I'm just saying the further purchase of shares is confirmation that no 'unknown unknowns' are lurking.

Right you are DU. None taken.