GreenRoc Accelerates their World Class Project to Production as Early as 2028. Watch the full video here.
As in the famous Irish joke about asking for directions to Dublin and being told 'I wouldn't have started from here'.... what I wouldn't give to invest my entire current stake in JOG at today's price.
I can only think a large shareholder is still offloading . Thinks make little sense.
Fortunately the fortunes of JOG are not tied to UK PLC as Brent goes on the international market. Inflation must surely feed through to brent too.
I agree with Einbert that we need a plan, and sharpish. I spoke to someone who knows the management team very well today, who said that they were very advanced on the development plan, and it was coming shortly (as per RNS but just saying). Also of interest was that it would be submitted to NSTA very early in H2 23, and that there relationship with NSTA was excellent and it should be expected to pass quickly (we also kind of know this but to have it re-iterated close to source was good). Also was that NEO were not alone in the FO by any means so with second FO will be very doable post development plan.
Nothing new (except fast submit of plan to NSTA) but fortunes must change soon.
It would be a conflict of interest with their GPs for the PEs to buy stock. JOG and NEO negotiate with each other on terms.
Also why bother - PE guys get giant tax-lite carry on their funds.
JOG people are already massively over-exposed in the net-worth, and success is dealt with via options.
We need to stay patient. Macro fears may well ease, oil seems to have a reasonable floor, there will be good news flow from now on.
FDP should allow people to model it. That may help the SP. we have rumour of 2nd F/O and FO over the next few months.
Like many of us I can't believe the price.
I personally see minimal - or no - political risk before first oil. FWIW
Looking good and Dev solution coming soon...
"The Company is also pleased to report that the GBA partners are well advanced
with selection of the Buchan re-development solution and it expects to be able
to provide an update on this shortly."
Fantastic!
Stock market scramble has left investors skittish despite rally - https://on.ft.com/3Nfh56E via @FT
Article outlining how tough things are being for FMs at the moment, and why an illiquid oil minor without a signed contract isn't to interesting for the moment! FMs are focused on not losing their jobs!
Got any Spreadbets CHF? This can make following JOG a little painful...
Abatt1 - understand, I was just extrapolating from your frustration with the price, and saying that bid is the only way for the SP to hit the target. If you genuinely believe only a bid will increase the price, you should probably sell? Apologies if I missed the sense of your point.
MPO818 - yes, invest might be better. My DD on the financials side is poor, (although very diligent in terms of my network), so I am just poking fun at myself really.
Urg. I don't agree with this. The SP action means absolutely nothing, and anything can happen.
It would be perfectly possible for an institution to have made the decision to wait until the contract is officially signed before buying some more. A desire to increase a position size from 5% to 10% until 365p means we'll get there in days or even hours. From speaking to institutional friends they say it's hard to justify buying a stock when the contract isn't signed, and there's no business plan. How does it look on the chance that it falls over? Any professional investor will echo Warren Buffet's rule no1, 'don't lose money'. It's even worse if you fund drops 10% below the market and you get redemptions, and can't justify your decision to your boss.
The value in JOG is that as a PI, you can take the risk (which is lightyears better than pre-FO), and a tiny allocation could be your total assets. Once these catalysts get signed, the price will head up, and the free float will increase in value. Someone will flog a bit of ithaca and buy a bit of JOG. We get closer to post-risk NPV and the company gets more and more investable.
If you can stomach the rollercoaster, we are on the cusp of the famous re-rate. I'm hoping that will come with FO signed. It maybe the FDP, or second FO that does it. Or a mix.
I am exasperated also but I think selling now could be a very big mistake.
DYOR and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Well that seller has plenty of opportunity to sell into this rally and isn't...
Oh the blessed flip-side. Yes, fingers crossed!
It's a tough share as the excessive spreads DU mentions make it hard to trade, yet the volatility is insane!!!!
Wiped the rest of my message - just to say daily volume can often be much less that 100,000 - meaning that one HNW seller getting divorced... or institution that has an asset allocation change at the investment committee, a 3% holding over a few weeks plus normal flow of sellers blasts the SP to bits. With no sinister reason.
Just a thought on volume. 32.55m shares in issue, a 3% holder has roughly 1m shares.
Daily volume can be easily be
I think a lot of people are asking themselves that Abatt, but over the coming weeks and months we should start to see this paper business turn into leasing contracts, flow estimates, massive capex, infrastructure deals, etc etc.
I think many (including myself) are disappointed that the first FO didn't become a get rich quick situation. But as things start to take shape this becomes a grossly undervalued high-quality NS independent - that will start to attract more institutional interest, that it currently is unable to do except 'special situations' funds and tiny players.
I expect the management team must be think 'what the hell more do we have to do to be a success!'
Agree. It's relatively low volume - repeating the slide before the FO. I reckon there's enough people that have lost patience and are checking out with a smidge of profit or small loss, to move the price. It must be getting oversold now. It's also a sitting duck for a takeover.
I don't think this painful price action is indicative of anything sinister, and great chance to get in. Except I'm already at maximum allocation! As I assume is everyone else....
Euphoria to despair about one a quarter... It's a rollercoaster!
PS I am smoking a fat cigar when I wrote that :-)
Nah. Conspiracy theory. I reckon people are stressed about political environment and economic worries. Meanwhile 1yr gilts pay >4% with no risk.
Politicals don't invalidate the NPV, even one with a 75% tax. I'm staying the course.
The deal with NEO is great, which means there was competitive tension. Which means plenty participants in 2ns FO.
Apache stopped all drilling and fired staff in Aberdeen. Why not chuck some profits (>40k barrels per day in WFT period) with a target on them at JOG. And get a fee for using your infrastructure this reducing OPEX.
JOG are good, keep reporting good news. Even in this crappy climate they can make great money.
Re WFT: The main immediate benefit
for UK North Sea oil and gas companies of the new price floor is RBL debt capacity. Banks
providing RBL debt periodically calculate the borrowing capacity available to E&P companies they
lend to based on cash flow forecasts from those companies’ fields. The banks tend to use
relatively conservative oil and gas price assumptions, likely, in our view, to be below the new price
floors now associated with the windfall tax. Without the price floor, the banks would both use
conservative oil and gas prices and also assume the full windfall tax, restricting borrowing
capacity. Installing the price floor should now allow much of this capacity to be provided again,
increasing capital availability for investment in new drilling and developments.
Helpful for JOG, and the wider sector. The new price floor is good for JOG in terms of terms of
helping underpin progression of its Buchan development. It should mean the project would be able
to access greater debt capacity for CAPEX funding, but it also indicates important support from the
UK government for further investment, drilling and development in the UK. The availability of capital
and implied government support may also make it easier for JOG to execute its planned second
farm out later this year.
More widely, the price floor should give a boost to general UK North Sea sector activity, making
more capital available for investment in the short/medium term
"We would also point out here that while the potential policy of the UK Labour party towards oil and
gas remains somewhat unclear, JOG’s Buchan project is expected to reach FID in H1 2024,
meaning it would have achieved approval before the expected UK election in late 2024."
I think if they'd layered it a bit with the extra 10% removed say between 72 and 85 it would be more of a boost.
I think is Starmer is clear on policy in the upcoming forum in Aberdeen it may help (or hinder!)
First - bravo Jim333 - if only you could have just bet on the WFT outcome!
Something is most definitely wrong with the SP. We should be up from here. I don't know about MM activity, honestly I don't believe in to much conspiracy here; they do fine just picking up the spread.
I can only think institutions are waiting for the ink on the FO, and all the PIs are already up to their personal allocation limit. The stock has been heavily tipped so who wouldn't know about it. Perhaps an institution has reduced their allocation to O&G and a big tranche of JOG is being gradually cut. All this pontification is rather meaningless I suppose.
On a different note, I wonder what would happen if JOG management came out and announced they would simply be a cash cow on GBA - ie 'we wont make acquisitions, we'll just co-develop GBA, skeleton staff, and just pay giant dividends from 2026 onwards.' That would be incredible in my view but will never happen.