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... that Zeus is obviously making a huge effort to market JOG. They must be scratching their head too. It's not like they're sticking up for a poor story either!

I can only think that shareholders are exhausted, and so many had set their 'stop-loss' at FO completion, which was only partial. Then they think - 'if this doesn't go up then, when will it?!?? - must we wait to 2026 and worry about whether the flow rates are as expected?' People are still exiting with most of their position unless they bought very unlucky. SO why not just chuck in the towel an invest elsewhere? Then a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This dynamic remains true until it doesn't. Please close the FDP selection and 2nd FO out JOG!

That's doesn't surprise me. What's interesting is that when energy prices were high, it was politically ok to shaft energy companies. Fiscally Tories were also compelled to over-balance the books after the Truss budget (not least because they bailed out the country with the energy rebate).

Now economic worries are to the fore, and energy bills are no longer an immediate worry, and Just Stop Oil is irritating the working class base of Labour, Starmer is keen to not be associated with loony green left. That coincides with the Tories understanding that EPL is killing North Sea O&G investment, and wanting to position Labour as Green zealots intent on killing jobs.

Thus the political space is there to make the argument that UK-produced O&G is needed as part of the energy transition, for jobs, energy security, tax receipts and less emissions than foreign imports.

It's a good point but perhaps it'll be something that Lab can't revoke. Or a technicality like allowing decom to be deducted from EPL, and locking it to new developments.

I hope this is goes some way to vindicating my telling the board about various behind the scenes political events. The mood music is changing in O&G, and possibly risk. Don't miss the bus!

Everything is going swimmingly, and those who can be patient will triple their money maybe more by 2026.

JOG has been a risked risk asset for some time - producing small oilers today are trading at huge discounts. Why not just buy Serica or Harbour at these prices, and take no risk?

FPSO contract will be signed soon, 10% deposit for delivery 2025 of 700mm vessel is 70mm, tax deducted is what 10mm?

JOg will get 9.4mm, FO will complete, economics will be announced, and institutions can then settle down to a vastly under-priced but now derisked asset. assuming inflation continues downwards, rates down, put some risk into the market and this stock will take off.

I'm bored myself of saying stuff like this but I certainly do believe it.

Political climate is changing.... FT this evening:

Tories urge Sunak to water down green pledges after by-election carnage

Rishi Sunak was on Friday urged by Conservative MPs to bounce back from a night of parliamentary by-election carnage by watering down some of the party’s green pledges, including a ban on the sale of new petrol cars from 2030.

The prime minister insisted that a Tory defeat at the next general election was “not a done deal”, despite suffering two crushing losses in the safe seats of Selby and Ainsty in northern England and Somerton and Frome in the south-west.

Sunak drew comfort from a surprise victory in a third by-election in Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where voters strongly opposed plans by London Labour mayor Sadiq Khan to impose a £12.50 daily charge on drivers with highly polluting vehicles.

The narrow win encouraged some Tory MPs to argue that Sunak should exploit voter concerns about the costs of green measures at a national level, portraying Labour as willing to impose high bills on households.

“The lesson is surely that green policies are very unpopular when there’s a direct cost to people,” said Lord David Frost, former Brexit minister, adding that Sunak should “rethink” the timeframe for switching to electric cars and heat pumps.

Craig Mackinlay, chair of the net zero scrutiny group of Conservative MPs, warned Sunak against pursuing “overbearing costs, charges, taxes” associated with Britain’s plan to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

He added: “There’s a lot to learn from Uxbridge — that a way to create some significant blue water between us and Labour is to rethink these charges and the net zero pathway.”

Personally I think the windfarm is a 'nice to have'. Don't think the project gets halted if it doesn't get sorted.

Very good quality report - and very good for JOG - https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/debunking-the-myth-of-upstream-underinvestment/

Hunt met E&P CEOs this week...

One thought had occurred to me, based on very little, is that why haven't Rosebank and Cambo been cleared? The economics have been ruined by EPL, maybe Equinor and Ithaca are holding the govs feet to the fire? Ithaca made noises about FID being marginal. It's not very useful politically to get whacked by ESG for approving it, then get whacked by the operator by saying they won't go ahead and looking like an economic failure. Perhaps I'm over thinking.

Well, judge me on what happens next.

I have from a good source the EPL will be adjusted in the coming weeks. No idea how. But gov realising how bad it is

An alternative view:

1) Brent is edging up - if it keeps going eyes will turn to producers as the 'underinvestment in the cycle' prophecy will start manifesting.

2) US CPI undershot, if it continues and rates reverse we are back to the races. We have had crappy economics for some time. Forget UK, RoW.

3) 2nd FO and FPSO purchase along with economics and reserves review are predicted within weeks or a few months.

4) Remember those institutions that put up cash in May 2021 with bugger all on the horizon?

Hello Jar09 - no, I don't have shares in Sound Energy. Let me disabuse you of the idea that I have greater understanding - I do not. I am lucky to have a good network that fills in the gaps.

CHF - the market turns before the news does... and when people start hunting for risk (in 2021 they were happy to participate in a fund raise at 165p with no sniff of an FO!) JOG will benefit. If they buy an FPSO and second farm out - ouch may turn to 'ooooo'

Sorry - to clarify the stock down 50% he had bought near the bottom and it hadn't recovered yet in spite of good news!

Morning All.

I had a very long chat with a UK fund manager today who gave some valuable insights. He holds a little JOG. The summary is that the lack of movement in the share price is technical rather than fundamental.

UK small cap is deeply unloved, and money has rotated away from AIM and UK small cap. He cited a UK small cap fund that was 400m a few years ago, and is 120m today. The holdings list shows midcaps only - stocks like JOG were long sold.

He also showed me a small cap holding of his that had dropped nearly 50% and not recovered. He said he knew the single seller, and that they'd been asked to do it by their investment committee, and had sold whatever the price.

He pointed to another stock, good news out today, up virtually nothing. in 2021 it'd be up 15%. he said mispricings in UK small cap were everywhere.

So UK institutions are totally off small cap, and have been for 18months. News has been terrible - if that turns then market should rise and small caps will follow with a lag.

In other news, discussing the UBS situation around FO, he checked Bloomberg and it was a UBS client account. So HNW trading FO.

He did said that his perception was that when Serica is trading at 1x cash, JOG still has too much uncertainly. So there is a good case to say that if an FPSO contract is signed and the financial commitment by NEO is made, and second FO follows, it's a huge de-risk and price should finally move (up - for the jokers out there).

I suppose if oil squeaks into > $80bbl and stays there, energy hits the news again, this could persuade some jabronis to but the stock...

*there!

PS I note the link you sent doesn't included the concrete in the base (a lot of CO2!) Which I'm pretty sure can't be recycled!

Thanks for that, fair enough. I should have said 'blades' (although perhaps the technology will improve for recycling). For the record I'm not anti-renewables but their environmental footprint is complicated and I think early decommissioning of NS offshore will sting financially also. They should be part of the mix and continue to develop the technology, but fossil fuels will pick up the slack until nuclear and hopefully fusion take up one day. Meanwhile their will be climate change and some adverse effect but not the end of the world.

Sorry H1 next year

Wind turbines are not recyclable, and solar is full of caesium, an absolutely hideous chemical. The list goes on. We need oil.

JOG's stock is highly illiquid compared to at FTSE 250 stock. If a £400m fund wants to buy a £4m stake (representing a small holding in the fund, but practically a shareholder activist stake and largest shareholder in JOG), it would be very hard to trade in and out.

So no-one serious, hedge funds or normal long-only, is keen to bother to do the research in micro caps, as they can never take a stake anyway.

Hence all the PIs.

I don't know if the undervaluation (notice the 38 page note has a reduced opex number, and also a decent scenario at 75 oil and EPL forever) is technical (in noone bigs buyer universe) or fundamental (they don't think the project will get approval l).

The second I don't get as it should get passed H2 next year we'll before Lab get in. And as DU pointed out it's then hard to stop legally, not that they would as it's got good green credentials and Lab said they wouldn't stop existing projects anyway. We don't have to get to first oil to be quids in, just to NSTA and gov approval.