Member Info for Greener101

First - bravo Jim333 - if only you could have just bet on the WFT outcome!

Something is most definitely wrong with the SP. We should be up from here. I don't know about MM activity, honestly I don't believe in to much conspiracy here; they do fine just picking up the spread.

I can only think institutions are waiting for the ink on the FO, and all the PIs are already up to their personal allocation limit. The stock has been heavily tipped so who wouldn't know about it. Perhaps an institution has reduced their allocation to O&G and a big tranche of JOG is being gradually cut. All this pontification is rather meaningless I suppose.

On a different note, I wonder what would happen if JOG management came out and announced they would simply be a cash cow on GBA - ie 'we wont make acquisitions, we'll just co-develop GBA, skeleton staff, and just pay giant dividends from 2026 onwards.' That would be incredible in my view but will never happen.

That is bloody great news. Thanks alsoppc

what in the name of bugggery ****** is happening to the sp? all the other independents are shooting up - opec confirms again that it will just cut supply to get a decent crude price, all whilst we're at the low point in the cycle, with a very decent chance at back to global growth in the next few years if history is to go by.

i had assumed - it seems i am quite wrong - that people would sell after the first spike on f/o, then sp would stabilise, then start loading up in anticipation of the deal formally closing. yet we aren't a million miles away from 30th may, when even the most ardent jogger could be nervous there wasn't a partner who was willing to take the plunge!

meanwhile, all the crappy chat from lab doesn't affect us much in the grand scheme - the worst i can see happening is another 3% tax on top. buchan is now a scarce asset - let's say as an ns independent you had decided to reduce your investment in ns by half, and look to put capex to work globally. total that investment for all players in ns (>15). if lab stick to no new licenses, your options for all that investment are now limited to small incremental projects - or gba, the last project of scale no not be fully funded (for pete's sake it is fully funded at material terms, it's just we're likely to get better terms!!!)

by far in the balance of probabilities is a big jump in the next few weeks, and solid growth and catalysts (that are pretty much now 'known knowns') until first oil. it's a short termers stock at this price, a medium termers stock and like me - stick it in your sipp stock for 2026 and beyond. opportunity in plain sight for a multibag!

what am i missing someone!?!?!

Zeus has the second farm out happening in Q4 2023. Development plan having happened H2 of that year. I believe the FO close happening in next few weeks is that with NEO.

I think more technical certainty comes with the FO close, and mouths should start a'drouling when the Dev plan gets published (laying out starkly DUs best guess numbers).

Atmospherics aside, this share is so much better than pre NEO announcement (when I confess I got a little worried) but now 200pish. Crazy!

Bonza post DU. Rockhopper reference is a good one. Thanks

GBA development has a better profile politically than Cambo and Rosebank.

It's smaller. It's the middle and end of a field's life not the start. It's brownfield and not new. It uses existing infrastructure. It could even be a tie-back, or reconfigure and existing NS FPSO. It has electrifiction potential. It is low-viscosity oil.

NSTA has been historically very supportive, even championing JOGs green credentials.

Buchan may be the last big development in the NS. Although I think it's hard for Lab to block Rosebank and Cambo.

Thanks for this post Surety.

When the rubber hits the road...

Regardless, JOG is not even a new development like Rosebank/ Cambo and will slip under the radar IMHO. Obvs it's not a new license either

A couple of other points of interest to me, show that the rational for bringing Buchan to production is strong:

1) In the operational update, the involvement of local infrastructure owners shows there are many operators that can benefit. To me this is a great indicator that project economics will be good, and everyone wants this to go ahead.

2) Electrification is a possibility, but the project if not dependant on it. Cable to shore I understand is very complex so I'm pleased it's an ambition to windfarm that doesn't preclude the project going ahead.

"It is anticipated that the farm-out will be completed around the end of the second quarter of 2023"

So around end of June - 4 or 5 weeks away.

Thanks for this DU. I had misunderstood something in one of the earlier presentations.

I note many of your assumptions are on the conservative side - many of your inputs could be upgraded with a bit of luck. Particularly the oil price if JOG hits the cycle well. Regardless your final numbers are pretty good!

Fingers crossed!

I feel like I'm bringing up an old topic but could someone who's financially savvy comment?

If JOG retains 20-25% of the production, post opex isn't that dwarfed by carried tax losses from Trap? If so the model tax is only the WFT plus additional, leaving 35% total tax?

Or does JOG share the tax loss with F/O partner?

Https://melloevents.com/

HNW investor conference. AB speaks Wednesday afternoon

Thanks for this info. I'd bet then good results Wednesday am, stuff in the press etc. Then talk about it freely Wednesday afternoon. No way he can beat around the bush and do results later

.... and very positive, specific language has historically got everyone's animal spirits going...

Results will have ample opportunity for a massive bump. The multiple, serious, well-founded counterparties that were in the original process will all be candidates who are 'oven ready' (sorry) for the follow on F/O to chuck in some cash before Lab gov removes investment allowance.

GL all

Anybody know why final results are later than last year? It was end of April ... DU you had next week?

To think I nearly commented substantively on this post!

I had a chat with someone in the industry today; I'm interested in FPSO tax treatment re EPL.

They told me FPSO is a bit of a grey area, If it’s elected as an operating lease on day one, you won’t get a tax benefit day one but then you’d be able to get EPL tax benefit bc you can run through your opex. If you elect a financing lease, you get tax release from your capitalisation of the lease but then it’s not EPL eligible.

Not sure what people's thoughts are on this. PS I'm not 100% on FPSO there are other alternatives to a jack-up apparently.

DU - don't underestimate how much we might wildly agree on government and UK pop's attitude to domestic O&G!

When you put it like that re post-tax profits it's somewhat disappointing, yes. I have always been rather focused on getting to FID with 25% carry - already that would amazing for SP. Maybe EPL and investment allowance helped this, or at least didn't hinder as much as it could. Every cloud and all that.

I tend to think about this in terms of the cycle too - with >$100 Brent and 75% tax minus Trap Oils tax offsets, that's great for us. Of course no WFT would be better. I have the heart of a gambler/ optimist... tis true.

I equate domestic O&G investment with tobacco in 90s - in spite of everyone out to get them there was much much money to be made. We're addicted to both products of course...

I believe Sunak thinks the profits from recent good oil are enough. I think politically it's not worth it to do an EPL floor, remember Tories are fighting for their lives now. Hopefully I'll be proved wrong, and Jim33 has it right.

Regarding Lab, Starmer is a avowed centrist (at least what passes for one these days), and his tune will change once in power. If Brent is where many people think it will be (inflation catches up) and it's north of $100, no EPL change but we're all quids in anyway. If not, he'll adjust. In the meantime don't expect continual WFT chat from Lab to change as it's a easy goal top score with no downside.

PS how much does this affect JOG anyway? NEO will finance the whole thing regardless!